WWTBAM Bored

Spock wrote:Instead of everybody just speculating and assuming that soybeans are going to go down, I thought, WTH, I might as well post soybean prices once in awhile and see what happens. I look at the numbers every day anyway.

Washington Post wrote:In the hours after China floated a levy on soybeans, futures prices dropped 4 percent, or 40 cents, to $9.97 a bushel. That price is approaching the break-even point on many farms, said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone.

Long-term, the prospects are even worse. Although soybean prices rallied Thursday morning, they were still down more than 20 cents. And even if prices stabilize, tariffs will erode farmers’ Chinese market share, said Wallace Tyner, a Purdue University economist who has modeled the likely effect of the tariffs. Within three to five years, Tyner's model shows, Brazil and Argentina would replace the United States as China’s main source of soybeans. That could force U.S. farmers to switch to less lucrative crops, such as corn or wheat.

Bob Juch wrote:

Washington Post wrote:In the hours after China floated a levy on soybeans, futures prices dropped 4 percent, or 40 cents, to $9.97 a bushel. That price is approaching the break-even point on many farms, said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at INTL FCStone.

Long-term, the prospects are even worse. Although soybean prices rallied Thursday morning, they were still down more than 20 cents. And even if prices stabilize, tariffs will erode farmers’ Chinese market share, said Wallace Tyner, a Purdue University economist who has modeled the likely effect of the tariffs. Within three to five years, Tyner's model shows, Brazil and Argentina would replace the United States as China’s main source of soybeans. That could force U.S. farmers to switch to less lucrative crops, such as corn or wheat.

Spock wrote:Been a while, but: soybeans were 9.50 and corn was 3.43 when everybody predicted the world was ending due to Trump's Trade War with China.. There has since been movement both up and down. Currently we are higher. I submit that we have seen soybean prices surprisingly increase from the 9.50 level which, in and of itself, was higher than we should have expected

Soybean price today for May 2018 delivery is $9.66

Soybean price today for Fall 2018 delivery is also $9.66
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Obviously, commodity prices move for many reasons, not only China Tariff stuff, but this at least gives us a baseline.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I am going to do a corn baseline too because of the acre battle with soybeans. For example, spring planting looks like it will be late this year, thus some corn acres might switch to bean acres. Thus hurting bean price.
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Corn price today for May 2018 Delivery is $3.60 per bushel

Corn price today for Fall 2018 Delivery is $3.62 per bushel.
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Bob78164 wrote:I'm also seeing corn prices in the $3.60 range, which seems to be pretty close to a 52-week low. --Bob

silverscreenselect wrote:

Bob78164 wrote:I'm also seeing corn prices in the $3.60 range, which seems to be pretty close to a 52-week low. --Bob

Looks like dairy prices will be the next to take a hit.

https://www.dairyherd.com/article/mexic ... port-sales

And just as the Chinese found other markets for soybeans, Mexico looks like it will find some new friends in the EU.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-m ... SKBN1HS0PF

I don't remember where I read it, so I can't list a cite, but the newest round of Chinese tariffs will affect industries in areas that voted for Trump by a 2-1 margin over those that voted for Clinton.

Spock wrote:Instead of everybody just speculating and assuming that soybeans are going to go down, I thought, WTH, I might as well post soybean prices once in awhile and see what happens. I look at the numbers every day anyway.

I am going to post local cash prices-I don't want to mess with futures and/or basis.

About 3 weeks ago, I sold some soybeans for $9.50 per bushel for fall 2018 delivery. When the initial news of the tariff thing hit, soybeans had a hard down day and dropped about $.25 per bushel. Since that time, soybeans have clawed their way back and I sold some beans again today for $9.50 per bushel for Fall 2018 delivery.

So this is as good a time as any to start. Soybean prices are back where they were prior to China Tariff news and, have shrugged off the initial hit.
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Soybean price today for April 2018 delivery is $9.50.

Soybean price today for Fall 2018 delivery is also $9.50.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Obviously, commodity prices move for many reasons, not only China Tariff stuff, but this at least gives us a baseline.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I am going to do a corn baseline too because of the acre battle with soybeans. For example, spring planting looks like it will be late this year, thus some corn acres might switch to bean acres. Thus hurting bean price.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Corn price today for April 2018 Delivery is $3.43 per bushel

Corn price today for Fall 2018 Delivery is $3.45 per bushel.

Spock wrote:Instead of everybody just speculating and assuming that soybeans are going to go down, I thought, WTH, I might as well post soybean prices once in awhile and see what happens. I look at the numbers every day anyway.

I am going to post local cash prices-I don't want to mess with futures and/or basis.

About 3 weeks ago, I sold some soybeans for $9.50 per bushel for fall 2018 delivery. When the initial news of the tariff thing hit, soybeans had a hard down day and dropped about $.25 per bushel. Since that time, soybeans have clawed their way back and I sold some beans again today for $9.50 per bushel for Fall 2018 delivery.

So this is as good a time as any to start. Soybean prices are back where they were prior to China Tariff news and, have shrugged off the initial hit.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Soybean price today for April 2018 delivery is $9.50.

Soybean price today for Fall 2018 delivery is also $9.50.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Obviously, commodity prices move for many reasons, not only China Tariff stuff, but this at least gives us a baseline.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I am going to do a corn baseline too because of the acre battle with soybeans. For example, spring planting looks like it will be late this year, thus some corn acres might switch to bean acres. Thus hurting bean price.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Corn price today for April 2018 Delivery is $3.43 per bushel

Corn price today for Fall 2018 Delivery is $3.45 per bushel.

silverscreenselect wrote:

Bob78164 wrote:I'm also seeing corn prices in the $3.60 range, which seems to be pretty close to a 52-week low. --Bob

Looks like dairy prices will be the next to take a hit.

https://www.dairyherd.com/article/mexic ... port-sales

And just as the Chinese found other markets for soybeans, Mexico looks like it will find some new friends in the EU.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-m ... SKBN1HS0PF

I don't remember where I read it, so I can't list a cite, but the newest round of Chinese tariffs will affect industries in areas that voted for Trump by a 2-1 margin over those that voted for Clinton.