Polls, polls, polls!

[Pastor Fireball]

Yesterday was the quadrennial post-Labor Day presidential poll dump. At least one poll was released from every state and DC. All of these polls came from either Ipsos or SurveyMonkey. With less than two months until Election Day, most of these numbers are expected and other numbers are surprising. And there are a few numbers that are just plain unbelievable, as you can tell from any editorial comments that I make. Nonetheless, we do have a somewhat clearer picture on where the election stands before the first debate.

I am only listing states where at least one poll shows Clinton and Drumpf within ten points of each other. Any unlisted state is expectedly seen as solidly blue or solidly red. Ipsos didn't bother to poll support for Gary Johnson in any state, so "J-NP" is used for him.

The polls from Maine and Nebraska should be taken with a truckload of salt because they didn't poll each individual congressional district.

Alaska
T-38, C-31, J-19 (T +7) (SurveyMonkey)

Arizona
T-45, C-41, J-NP (T +4) (Ipsos)
T-39, C-37, J-13 (T +2) (SurveyMonkey)

Arkansas
T-48, C-42, J-NP (T +6) (Ipsos)
T-46, C-37, J-11 (T +9) (SurveyMonkey)

Colorado
C-45, T-39, J-NP (C +6) (Ipsos)
C-37, T-37, J-16 (Tied) (SurveyMonkey)

Florida
C-48, T-45, J-NP (C +3) (Ipsos)
C-42, T-40, J-10 (C +2) (SurveyMonkey)

Georgia
T-47, C-41, J-NP (T +6) (Ipsos)
T-40, C-39, J-12 (T +1) (SurveyMonkey)

Iowa
T-44, C-41, J-NP (T +3) (Ipsos)
T-40, C-36, J-16 (T +4) (SurveyMonkey)

Kentucky
T-46, C-42, J-NP (T +4) (Ipsos)
(SurveyMonkey has Kentucky at 52-29, so one of these polls is complete bullcrap. I'm putting my money on Ipsos being bullcrap.)

Maine (statewide)
C-42, T-42, J-NP (Tied) (Ipsos)
C-37, T-34, J-15 (C +3) (SurveyMonkey)

Michigan
C-42, T-42, J-NP (Tied) (Ipsos)
C-39, T-38, J-13 (C +1) (SurveyMonkey)

Minnesota
C-42, T-33, J-NP (C +9) (Ipsos)
C-41, T-34, J-15 (C +7) (SurveyMonkey)

Mississippi
T-46, C-43, J-4 (T +3) (SurveyMonkey)
(Ipsos has Mississippi at 59-30, so one of these polls is complete bullcrap. I'm putting my money on SurveyMonkey being bullcrap.)

Missouri
T-43, C-34, J-14 (T +9) (SurveyMonkey)

Nebraska (statewide)
T-45, C-38, J-NP (T +7) (Ipsos)

Nevada
C-43, T-35, J-NP (C +8) (Ipsos)
C-40, T-37, J-12 (C +3) (SurveyMonkey)

New Hampshire
T-45, C-44, J-NP (T +1) (Ipsos)
C-40, T-34, J-14 (C +6) (SurveyMonkey)

New Mexico
C-37, T-29, J-25 (C +8) (SurveyMonkey)
(This is the first state poll to indicate a real possibility of Drumpf coming in third place.)

North Carolina
C-49, T-44, J-NP (C +5) (Ipsos)
T-41, C-40, J-10 (T +1) (SurveyMonkey)

Ohio
T-46, C-43, J-NP (T +3) (Ipsos)
T-40, C-37, J-13 (T +3) (SurveyMonkey)

Oregon
C-44, T-39, J-NP (C +5) (Ipsos)

Pennsylvania
C-48, T-42, J-NP (C +6) (Ipsos)
C-41, T-38, J-12 (C +3) (SurveyMonkey)

South Carolina
C-48, T-45, J-NP (C +3) (Ipsos)
T-45, C-38, J-10 (T +7) (SurveyMonkey)

Texas
C-40, T-40, J-11 (Tied) (SurveyMonkey)
(Ipsos has Texas at 49-32 for Drumpf, so the SurveyMonkey poll is likely bullcrap of the Longhorn variety.)

Utah
T-35, C-34, J-NP (T +1) (Ipsos)
T-34, C-27, J-23 (T +7) (SurveyMonkey)
(This is the first state poll to indicate a real possibility of Clinton coming in third place.)

Virginia
C-43, T-36, J-13 (C +7) (SurveyMonkey)

Wisconsin
C-38, T-38, J-NP (Tied) (Ipsos)
C-39, T-37, J-13 (C +2) (SurveyMonkey)

[Pastor Fireball]

More polls just released--this batch indicating that New Jersey and Rhode Island may also be on the table:

Florida
T-44, C-33, J-5 (T +1) (PPP)

Iowa
T-44, C-39, J-8 (T +5) (Emerson College)

Maine (2d District only)
T-41, C-36, J-14 (T +4) (Emerson College)

Missouri
T-47, C-38, J-8 (T +9) (Remington)

New Hampshire
C-42, T-37, J-14 (C +5) (Emerson College)

New Jersey
C-47, T-43, J-5 (C +4) (Emerson College)

North Carolina
C-46, T-42, J-4 (C +4) (YouGov)

Pennsylvania
C-45, T-37, J-6 (C +8) (YouGov)

Rhode Island
C-44, T-41, J-8 (C +3) (Emerson College)

Virginia
C-44, T-43, J-11 (C +1) (Emerson College)