Clinton and Trump tied in Georgia!

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Bob Juch
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Clinton and Trump tied in Georgia!

#1 Post by Bob Juch » Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:17 am

I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
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Re: Clinton and Trump tied in Georgia!

#2 Post by Bob78164 » Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:37 am

According to Nate Silver's polls-only model, Secretary Clinton first was projected to be a favorite in Georgia on August 9. She's now a very slight underdog. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Bob Juch
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Re: Clinton and Trump tied in Georgia!

#3 Post by Bob Juch » Fri Aug 19, 2016 10:05 am

Bob78164 wrote:According to Nate Silver's polls-only model, Secretary Clinton first was projected to be a favorite in Georgia on August 9. She's now a very slight underdog. --Bob
It's a statistical tie.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

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bazodee
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Re: Clinton and Trump tied in Georgia!

#4 Post by bazodee » Fri Aug 19, 2016 5:59 pm

The governor and other statewide office holders are NOT on the ballot in 2016 and the U.S. Senate race is not at all competitive. (Jonny Isakson will win easily).
Those races aren't going to motivate folks to go out and vote.

That said, I don't know who would gain an advantage by relatively lower turnout here in Georgia.

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Re: Clinton and Trump tied in Georgia!

#5 Post by silverscreenselect » Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:10 am

bazodee wrote:The governor and other statewide office holders are NOT on the ballot in 2016 and the U.S. Senate race is not at all competitive. (Jonny Isakson will win easily).
Those races aren't going to motivate folks to go out and vote.

That said, I don't know who would gain an advantage by relatively lower turnout here in Georgia.

The last poll I saw had Isakson up by only 5 points. But the big question in Georgia, as well as other states that have a substantial Hispanic population (Arizona), is to what extent they are going to actually register and turn out to vote. I've heard that Trump has been driving heavier than normal Hispanic registration, and if they vote against him, they aren't likely to split their tickets.

However, in 2014, Georgia polls showed a very tight race for both governor and senator, but the Republican candidates won both races fairly easily.
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