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The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:34 pm
by Bob78164
According to Nate Silver's
current polls-only forecast, the favorite has less than a 70% chance of winning the following states (in order from tightest squeaker to clear leans): Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, Nevada.
Two things are apparent from this list. First, Bob Juch's prediction that if Trump became the Republican nominee, the Democrat would win all 50 states was a wee bit off the mark. Second, when these are the swing states, the Republican is in trouble. Secretary Clinton is (according to the same forecast) at least a 70% favorite to win the following states: NH, FL, IA, VA, PA, MN, WI, ME, NM, OR, CT, MI, NJ, WA, DE, VT, RI, IL, CA, NY, MA, HI, MD, DC. If these are the only states she wins, she will have 299 electoral votes. Remove Florida from this list and Secretary Clinton still wins the White House with 270 electoral votes. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:40 pm
by BackInTex
Its a long way to November and a lot of investigative stuff will happen hurting Clinton and the Donald will say a lot of things hurting Trump.
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 1:15 pm
by Bob78164
BackInTex wrote:Its a long way to November and a lot of investigative stuff will happen hurting Clinton and the Donald will say a lot of things hurting Trump.
I don't think more e-mail stuff is going to change anyone's mind about Secretary Clinton. I think that damage is already priced into her poll numbers.
Senator Sanders apparently plans to formally endorse her on Tuesday. That will help solidify her standing among Democrats and liberal-leaning independents. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:29 pm
by Bob Juch
BackInTex wrote:Its a long way to November and a lot of investigative stuff will happen hurting Clinton and the Donald will say a lot of things hurting Trump.
When the lawsuit fro the 13-year-old Trump raped hits the fan he's going to be toast.
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:30 pm
by Bob78164
Bob Juch wrote:BackInTex wrote:Its a long way to November and a lot of investigative stuff will happen hurting Clinton and the Donald will say a lot of things hurting Trump.
When the lawsuit fro the 13-year-old Trump raped hits the fan he's going to be toast.
Source, please. Because this is defamatory and goes beyond the bounds of political comment unless there's a factual basis. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:37 pm
by BackInTex
Bob Juch wrote:BackInTex wrote:Its a long way to November and a lot of investigative stuff will happen hurting Clinton and the Donald will say a lot of things hurting Trump.
When the lawsuit fro the 13-year-old Trump raped hits the fan he's going to be toast.
Nah, all the folks who like Bill over Hilary will move to the Trump camp.
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 2:57 pm
by TheConfessor
Bob78164 wrote:Bob Juch wrote:BackInTex wrote:Its a long way to November and a lot of investigative stuff will happen hurting Clinton and the Donald will say a lot of things hurting Trump.
When the lawsuit fro the 13-year-old Trump raped hits the fan he's going to be toast.
Source, please. Because this is defamatory and goes beyond the bounds of political comment unless there's a factual basis. --Bob
http://www.snopes.com/2016/06/23/donald ... e-lawsuit/
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:58 pm
by silverscreenselect
BackInTex wrote:Its a long way to November and a lot of investigative stuff will happen hurting Clinton and the Donald will say a lot of things hurting Trump.
No, what will happen is that the Republicans will continue to try to rehash and re-investigate the same stuff they've been investigating for years and will come up with the same results, or, more precisely, lack of them.
And the exact same people, like you and Flock, who think Hillary should be in jail will continue to think so, while most of the rest of the country will simply move on and, if anything, there's going to be additional resentment against the Republicans among those moderate voters who might still be arguably persuadable by one side or the other in this election.
Hillary's negatives are high as a result of 25 years of being bashed by every scandal under the sun. The only things that could have hurt her even more were a criminal indictment or any evidence that her mistakes actually hurt U.S. security interests, like, say, a Bush White House operative who outed a CIA covert agent for political reasons. In all the talk about secret documents, there's been no showing of that (and I can almost guarantee that somebody would have leaked it had it occurred).
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:01 pm
by Bob78164
The most recent forecast moves Nevada and its 6 electoral votes above the 70% threshold, so if Secretary Clinton wins only the states where (as of right now) she is projected to win at least 70% of the time, she will be elected with 305 electoral votes. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 5:39 pm
by silverscreenselect
Bob78164 wrote:The most recent forecast moves Nevada and its 6 electoral votes above the 70% threshold, so if Secretary Clinton wins only the states where (as of right now) she is projected to win at least 70% of the time, she will be elected with 305 electoral votes. --Bob
Here's some perspective; At this point in 2012, Obama had a 2.7% lead in the RCP composite polls over Mitt Romney. He eventually won the popular vote by 3.9%, although the final polling average was only 0.7%. The electoral vote was 332-206.
In 2008, Obama had a 5.8% lead over John McCain at this point. That lead shrunk over the summer, and McCain actually took the lead briefly in early September before the Lehman Brother bankruptcy pretty much sank his campaign. The actual vote margin was 7.3%, very close to the polling average of 7.6%, and the electoral vote total was 365-173 (Obama carried one Congressional district in Nebraska and picked up one vote there).
According to RCP, as of today, Hillary has a 4.7% lead over Trump in the RCP polling average (based on a two-person race; some polls include Gary Johnson and/or Jill Stein and the results differ slightly).
Re: The swing states
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2016 11:52 pm
by Bob Juch
Bob78164 wrote:Bob Juch wrote:BackInTex wrote:Its a long way to November and a lot of investigative stuff will happen hurting Clinton and the Donald will say a lot of things hurting Trump.
When the lawsuit fro the 13-year-old Trump raped hits the fan he's going to be toast.
Source, please. Because this is defamatory and goes beyond the bounds of political comment unless there's a factual basis. --Bob
See Confessor's link. Snopes does not weigh in on the truth of the allegation.
Re: The swing states
Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:27 am
by Estonut
TheConfessor wrote:Bob78164 wrote:Bob Juch wrote:When the lawsuit fro the 13-year-old Trump raped hits the fan he's going to be toast.
Source, please. Because this is defamatory and goes beyond the bounds of political comment unless there's a factual basis.
http://www.snopes.com/2016/06/23/donald ... e-lawsuit/
I hope Hillary presses for a full-blown investigation into the goings-on at Epstein's "Orgy Island"...
Re: The swing states
Posted: Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:30 pm
by Bob78164
Nevada slips back under 70%, so if Secretary Clinton wins only the states where she is currently a 70% favorite, she wins 299 electoral votes. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2016 8:24 am
by SpacemanSpiff
silverscreenselect wrote:In 2008, Obama had a 5.8% lead over John McCain at this point. That lead shrunk over the summer, and McCain actually took the lead briefly in early September before the Lehman Brother bankruptcy pretty much sank his campaign.
My opinion - more than just Lehman Brothers sunk McCain. Besides the other financial maladies going on at that time, I think the one thing that got folks to swing towards Obama from McCain was when they both met with then-President Bush about the economic crisis. Obama came across as involved, and McCain basically sat back and acted like he was lost.
Plus, historically, when the economy goes in the tank during a Presidential election year, the party in power tends to have trouble holding onto the White House (Hoover [OK, that was ongoing], Carter, GHW Bush come to me off the top of my head).
Re: The swing states
Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2016 2:44 pm
by Bob78164
Bob78164 wrote:Nevada slips back under 70%, so if Secretary Clinton wins only the states where she is currently a 70% favorite, she wins 299 electoral votes. --Bob
The current update has Florida and its 29 electoral votes slipping below the 70% line, so if Secretary Clinton wins only the states where she is at least a 70% favorite to win, she takes the Presidency with 270 electoral votes. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2016 5:56 pm
by Bob78164
Nevada is now above 70%, so Secretary Clinton is now at least a 70% favorite to win states totaling 276 electoral votes. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:16 pm
by Bob78164
A new Iowa poll results in Iowa dropping below 70%, as is Florida, so Secretary Clinton is now at least a 70% favorite in states totalling 270 electoral votes. Current swing states -- those where the favorite is rated at less than 70% to win the state -- are Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:34 pm
by Bob78164
Bob78164 wrote:A new Iowa poll results in Iowa dropping below 70%, as is Florida, so Secretary Clinton is now at least a 70% favorite in states totalling 270 electoral votes. Current swing states -- those where the favorite is rated at less than 70% to win the state -- are Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida. --Bob
Actually, she's also under 70% in one of Maine's congressional districts so if she only won where she was a 70% favorite, she would have only 269 electoral votes. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 5:13 am
by silverscreenselect
Bob78164 wrote:Bob78164 wrote:A new Iowa poll results in Iowa dropping below 70%, as is Florida, so Secretary Clinton is now at least a 70% favorite in states totalling 270 electoral votes. Current swing states -- those where the favorite is rated at less than 70% to win the state -- are Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida. --Bob
Actually, she's also under 70% in one of Maine's congressional districts so if she only won where she was a 70% favorite, she would have only 269 electoral votes. --Bob
If Bob posts an update every time a new state poll comes out, this thread will be longer than his log by election day.
Re: The swing states
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:04 am
by Pastor Fireball
silverscreenselect wrote:this thread will be longer than his log by election day.
That comment didn't come out quite right...
Re: The swing states
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 10:02 am
by Bob78164
Bob78164 wrote:A new Iowa poll results in Iowa dropping below 70%, as is Florida, so Secretary Clinton is now at least a 70% favorite in states totalling 270 electoral votes. Current swing states -- those where the favorite is rated at less than 70% to win the state -- are Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida. --Bob
The 33 electoral votes of Florida and New Hampshire now join this roster, so along with Maine's Second Congressional District, only 236 electoral votes are in Secretary Clinton's column with more than a 70% likelihood. Trump's chance to win the Presidency is approaching 30%. --Bob
Re: The swing states
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:37 am
by silverscreenselect
Bob78164 wrote:Bob78164 wrote:A new Iowa poll results in Iowa dropping below 70%, as is Florida, so Secretary Clinton is now at least a 70% favorite in states totalling 270 electoral votes. Current swing states -- those where the favorite is rated at less than 70% to win the state -- are Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida. --Bob
The 33 electoral votes of Florida and New Hampshire now join this roster, so along with Maine's Second Congressional District, only 236 electoral votes are in Secretary Clinton's column with more than a 70% likelihood. Trump's chance to win the Presidency is approaching 30%. --Bob
Notice how Bob deftly avoided the turn that this thread took in the previous two postings.
Re: The swing states
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:35 pm
by BackInTex
silverscreenselect wrote:Bob78164 wrote:Bob78164 wrote:A new Iowa poll results in Iowa dropping below 70%, as is Florida, so Secretary Clinton is now at least a 70% favorite in states totalling 270 electoral votes. Current swing states -- those where the favorite is rated at less than 70% to win the state -- are Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and Florida. --Bob
The 33 electoral votes of Florida and New Hampshire now join this roster, so along with Maine's Second Congressional District, only 236 electoral votes are in Secretary Clinton's column with more than a 70% likelihood. Trump's chance to win the Presidency is approaching 30%. --Bob
Notice how Bob deftly avoided the turn that this thread took in the previous two postings.
Maybe he should rename the thread to "Schwing states"
Re: The swing states
Posted: Wed Jul 13, 2016 2:41 pm
by Bob78164
BackInTex wrote:silverscreenselect wrote:Bob78164 wrote:The 33 electoral votes of Florida and New Hampshire now join this roster, so along with Maine's Second Congressional District, only 236 electoral votes are in Secretary Clinton's column with more than a 70% likelihood. Trump's chance to win the Presidency is approaching 30%. --Bob
Notice how Bob deftly avoided the turn that this thread took in the previous two postings.
Maybe he should rename the thread to "Schwing states"
I'm trying not to be a dick about this. But you guys are making it hard. (Wait, what?) --B
b
Re: The swing states
Posted: Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:39 am
by Bob Juch
fivethirtyeight.com wrote:At 6 this morning, Quinnipiac University released a set of surveys of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania with the best polling news Donald Trump has gotten in a long time. In the version of the polls that includes third-party candidates — that’s the version FiveThirtyEight uses — Trump led Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in Florida, 1 percentage point in Ohio and 6 percentage points in Pennsylvania.
The results run in contrast to the preponderance of national polls, which show Clinton ahead by roughly 5 percentage points, on average. And some of the other polls released today weren’t as bad for Clinton. Some were even good for her, in fact. A Monmouth University poll showed her up by 13 percentage points in Colorado, while Fox News had her up by 9 points there. And a Marist College poll, contradicting Quinnipiac, had her up 8 points in Pennsylvania.
Nonetheless, the bevy of state polls today worked strongly to Trump’s benefit overall. His chances of winning the Electoral College are up to 29 percent, from 23 percent on Tuesday, according to our polls-only model. And they’re now 33 percent, up from 27 percent, in our polls-plus model, which also accounts for economic conditions. FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts are generally conservative until late in the race, so those qualify as fairly big changes by our standards.
Full article:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... new-polls/