WWTBAM Bored

The NFL approved a rule change for the 2015 season that will make PAT's somewhat more difficult. Now, teams will have to kick from the 15 yard line, making the PAT the equivalent of a 33 yard field goal. Since 2010, teams make about 99% of their PAT's. During that same time frame, teams made about 93% of 33-yard field goals.

Teams will still have the option of trying a two-point PAT by run or pass from the two-yard line. In another rule change, if the defensive team returns a turnover or blocked kick on a PAT to the end zone, it will receive two points (the same rule has existed in college football for about 30 years).

Technically, the change is just for the 2015 season, but the owners are expected to make it permanent next year.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12915 ... r-distance

I think the reason for giving the defense points for running back an extra point attempt is that they already try to run it back anyway, and now they won't look dumb when they do it.

So they have the option of lining up on the two with no kicker, or the 15 with a kicker?

elwoodblues wrote:I think the reason for giving the defense points for running back an extra point attempt is that they already try to run it back anyway, and now they won't look dumb when they do it.

Actually, the "defensive conversion" has been in college football for a number of years. One doesn't see it too often, but it has been known to change a game or two, especially if a team up by five points goes for two (to make it seven points), but ends up giving up the DC and now is only up by 3.

I'd rather have seen them use the WFL rule -- the Action Point. TDs worth 7 points. All conversions are 2 and a half yards from the goal line, must be run or passed into the end zone for one additional point. (Dickerods optional.)

Personally, I think the NFL was trying to fix something that didn't need to be fixed. But that's my opinion.

I misread the title. I thought that the NFL was changing rules to favor the Patriots again. Oops!

BackInTex wrote:So they have the option of lining up on the two with no kicker, or the 15 with a kicker?

That's the way it works. Supposedly, the math now favors going for two. A 2-point conversion is successful about 48% of the time, so the expected value of a kick was .99 and the expected value of going for two was .96. Now the odds shift to .96 to .93 in favor of going for two.

You still won't see many coaches going for two except in end game situations.

silverscreenselect wrote:

BackInTex wrote:So they have the option of lining up on the two with no kicker, or the 15 with a kicker?

That's the way it works. Supposedly, the math now favors going for two. A 2-point conversion is successful about 48% of the time, so the expected value of a kick was .99 and the expected value of going for two was .96. Now the odds shift to .96 to .93 in favor of going for two.

You still won't see many coaches going for two except in end game situations.

What if the extra point is blocked and Garo Yepremian picks it up and throws a pass? And what about the drop kick, as last executed by Doug Flutie?

TheConfessor wrote:
What if the extra point is blocked and Garo Yepremian picks it up and throws a pass?

I think you've stumbled onto the storyline for Poltergeist 3.

TheConfessor wrote:

silverscreenselect wrote:

BackInTex wrote:So they have the option of lining up on the two with no kicker, or the 15 with a kicker?

That's the way it works. Supposedly, the math now favors going for two. A 2-point conversion is successful about 48% of the time, so the expected value of a kick was .99 and the expected value of going for two was .96. Now the odds shift to .96 to .93 in favor of going for two.

You still won't see many coaches going for two except in end game situations.

What if the extra point is blocked and Garo Yepremian picks it up and throws a pass? And what about the drop kick, as last executed by Doug Flutie?

it's a live ball.

I myself am wondering what will happen if a team lines up at the 2 as if they are going for 2 points, and then drop kicks it through the uprights.

silverscreenselect wrote:

BackInTex wrote:So they have the option of lining up on the two with no kicker, or the 15 with a kicker?

That's the way it works. Supposedly, the math now favors going for two. A 2-point conversion is successful about 48% of the time, so the expected value of a kick was .99 and the expected value of going for two was .96. Now the odds shift to .96 to .93 in favor of going for two.

You still won't see many coaches going for two except in end game situations.

You are correct...coaches won't do the EV calculations because EV only works over an extended period of time...and to be honest, a .03 favorable variance in EV isn't going to be enough for even the more bold coaches to very often risk a 52% chance of failure on a two point try.

Only thing that makes this somewhat of an interesting rules change, in my mind, is that the ball is live if there's a block, fumble, or INT on the conversion attempt.

I am curious to see how this plays out and if it does improve the quality of the product.