New Evidence on the Hot Hand Fallacy
Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:18 pm
I'm too lazy to look up this thread from earlier, but a month or two ago, we had a discussion on whether the "hot hand" theory was real or a fantasy, i.e., a player who has been hot recently is more likely to stay hot (in basketball, making a shot).
This study shows that there is something to the theory but that in basketball, its effects aren't as pronounced because defensive teams have the ability to shift resources (i.e,, put their best defensive player or double team the hot hand). That reduces the hot hand's ability to score but at the same time increases the ability of his teammates (the same way that LeBron James' teammates get more open looks when he's double teamed).
Instead, they look at baseball, where the chances to shift defensive resources (walking a batter or bringing in a new pitcher) aren't as pronounced (you can't decide you're going to pitch harder or field better from one batter to the next). The result were that streakiness was very pronounced in baseball (both hot and cold), which matches what fans instinctively know. Further, the basketball studies may be flawed because they did not look at a large enough sampling.
http://priceonomics.com/can-an-athlete- ... cmpid=view
This study shows that there is something to the theory but that in basketball, its effects aren't as pronounced because defensive teams have the ability to shift resources (i.e,, put their best defensive player or double team the hot hand). That reduces the hot hand's ability to score but at the same time increases the ability of his teammates (the same way that LeBron James' teammates get more open looks when he's double teamed).
Instead, they look at baseball, where the chances to shift defensive resources (walking a batter or bringing in a new pitcher) aren't as pronounced (you can't decide you're going to pitch harder or field better from one batter to the next). The result were that streakiness was very pronounced in baseball (both hot and cold), which matches what fans instinctively know. Further, the basketball studies may be flawed because they did not look at a large enough sampling.
http://priceonomics.com/can-an-athlete- ... cmpid=view