WWTBAM Bored

For the Democrats, Louisiana and the Virgin Islands will hold primaries tomorrow, while Nebraska and Washington state hold caucuses. Obama has made a clean sweep of the caucuses so far, and I don't think that Nebraska (24 delegates) and Washington state (78 delegates) will be any different. LA has 56 delegates in its primary, and the large Black population indicate that Obama will likely win this state as well.

The Republicans have the Kansas caucus, Louisiana primary, and Washington caucus... but they're just beauty contests now that McCain has a clear path to the nomination.

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:For the Democrats, Louisiana and the Virgin Islands will hold primaries tomorrow, while Nebraska and Washington state hold caucuses. Obama has made a clean sweep of the caucuses so far, and I don't think that Nebraska (24 delegates) and Washington state (78 delegates) will be any different. LA has 56 delegates in its primary, and the large Black population indicate that Obama will likely win this state as well.

The Republicans have the Kansas caucus, Louisiana primary, and Washington caucus... but they're just beauty contests now that McCain has a clear path to the nomination.

But what about the Virgin Islands? Who is going to win their 3 - count 'em, 3 - delegates?

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:For the Democrats, Louisiana and the Virgin Islands will hold primaries tomorrow, while Nebraska and Washington state hold caucuses. Obama has made a clean sweep of the caucuses so far, and I don't think that Nebraska (24 delegates) and Washington state (78 delegates) will be any different. LA has 56 delegates in its primary, and the large Black population indicate that Obama will likely win this state as well.

The Republicans have the Kansas caucus, Louisiana primary, and Washington caucus... but they're just beauty contests now that McCain has a clear path to the nomination.

What happens if Huckabee wins 2 or all 3?

TheCalvinator24 wrote:

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:For the Democrats, Louisiana and the Virgin Islands will hold primaries tomorrow, while Nebraska and Washington state hold caucuses. Obama has made a clean sweep of the caucuses so far, and I don't think that Nebraska (24 delegates) and Washington state (78 delegates) will be any different. LA has 56 delegates in its primary, and the large Black population indicate that Obama will likely win this state as well.

The Republicans have the Kansas caucus, Louisiana primary, and Washington caucus... but they're just beauty contests now that McCain has a clear path to the nomination.

What happens if Huckabee wins 2 or all 3?

If they're winner take all contests, then Huckabee will have almost a third of the delegates McCain has.

Obama held a rally with 10,000 plus people yesterday afternoon, here in Omaha.

Oddly, according to my wife, I received an invitation from the Obama campaign (actual person, not taped recording, using our names) to come and caucus for them. They let us know where we could caucus.

For 20 years, I never have had the chance to make a significant vote for President. My wife and I seriously are thinking about changing our party designation on our voter registration for the caucus, and then switching it back for the primary in May.

Rexer25 wrote:

TheCalvinator24 wrote:

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:For the Democrats, Louisiana and the Virgin Islands will hold primaries tomorrow, while Nebraska and Washington state hold caucuses. Obama has made a clean sweep of the caucuses so far, and I don't think that Nebraska (24 delegates) and Washington state (78 delegates) will be any different. LA has 56 delegates in its primary, and the large Black population indicate that Obama will likely win this state as well.

The Republicans have the Kansas caucus, Louisiana primary, and Washington caucus... but they're just beauty contests now that McCain has a clear path to the nomination.

What happens if Huckabee wins 2 or all 3?

If they're winner take all contests, then Huckabee will have almost a third of the delegates McCain has.

My point was that before we anoint anyone as the nominee, let's wait until he has the necessary delegates. Huckabee may not be able to get to 1191 before the convention, but he can sure prevent McCain from doing so.

But what about the Virgin Islands? Who is going to win their 3 - count 'em, 3 - delegates?

Almost certainly, they'll break 2-1. But I'll go out on a limb and say that Obama will win VI as well, making it a clean sweep. Plus, we've got DC, Maryland, and Virginia this Tuesday--all of which are expected to break for Obama--so I'll say by this time next week, Obama will have the lead in delegates.

If they're winner take all contests, then Huckabee will have almost a third of the delegates McCain has.

Huckleberry ain't getting the nomination. He's just running for the VP slot now.

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:

But what about the Virgin Islands? Who is going to win their 3 - count 'em, 3 - delegates?

Almost certainly, they'll break 2-1. But I'll go out on a limb and say that Obama will win VI as well, making it a clean sweep. Plus, we've got DC, Maryland, and Virginia this Tuesday--all of which are expected to break for Obama--so I'll say by this time next week, Obama will have the lead in delegates.

If they're winner take all contests, then Huckabee will have almost a third of the delegates McCain has.

Huckleberry ain't getting the nomination. He's just running for the VP slot now.

Isn't he more likely to get it if he doesn't p*** off TRPTB, particularly McCain? It seems to me that by staying in the race all Huckabee does is demonstrate how little support McCain has among the conservative ranks, which can't do any good toward unifying the party. Neither party, it seems to me, is helped by a long drawn-out nomination battle. All it does is give the other party more ammunition to use in the general election.

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:Huckleberry ain't getting the nomination. He's just running for the VP slot now.

This analysis makes absolutely no sense. If Governor Huckabee were only interested in being Senator McCain's VP, then he would have dropped out about 2 seconds after Governor Romney did.

Huckabee will run until the convention or until McCain actually accumulates 1191 delegates. If he can get it to the convention, we can stop McCain. Huckabee might not emerge from the convention as the nominee, but I'm pretty sure it won't be McCain.

TheCalvinator24 wrote: If he can get it to the convention, we can stop McCain. Huckabee might not emerge from the convention as the nominee, but I'm pretty sure it won't be McCain.

What scenario do you see where this might happen? Will Huckabee be able to win 80% of the remaining delegates?

I don't have anything to say, but I do like your use of the word Clusterf**k.

Rexer25 wrote:

TheCalvinator24 wrote: If he can get it to the convention, we can stop McCain. Huckabee might not emerge from the convention as the nominee, but I'm pretty sure it won't be McCain.

What scenario do you see where this might happen? Will Huckabee be able to win 80% of the remaining delegates?

He doesn't have to. He only has to get 60%, and yes, that is very possible.

I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.

Right now:

McCain 724

Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)

Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133

Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)

Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%

If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.

PlacentiaSoccerMom wrote:I don't have anything to say, but I do like your use of the word Clusterf**k.

Yes. But I am grateful for those little asterisks. Madeleine doesn't know the f word and I'd like to keep it that way for little while longer. She peers over my shoulder from time to time.

And how he calls Huckabee "Huckleberry". Who was it here that said he looked like a cross between Nixon and Jim Neighbors? Whoever it was was spot on.

TheCalvinator24 wrote:

Rexer25 wrote:

TheCalvinator24 wrote: If he can get it to the convention, we can stop McCain. Huckabee might not emerge from the convention as the nominee, but I'm pretty sure it won't be McCain.

What scenario do you see where this might happen? Will Huckabee be able to win 80% of the remaining delegates?

He doesn't have to. He only has to get 60%, and yes, that is very possible.

I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.

Right now:

McCain 724

Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)

Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133

Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)

Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%

If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.

No it's not.

He's an economic populist, so he will not attract fiscal conservatives. He won't automatically pick up any support Romney may have gotten.

Most of the states where he can count on strong evangelical support have voted already.

Where do you propose he's going to pick up 60% of the remaining delegates?

Jeemie wrote:

TheCalvinator24 wrote:

Rexer25 wrote: What scenario do you see where this might happen? Will Huckabee be able to win 80% of the remaining delegates?

He doesn't have to. He only has to get 60%, and yes, that is very possible.

I see so many different delegate counts that I'm not sure who knows, but I'll use the Real Clear Politics numbers.

Right now:

McCain 724

Total Delegates awarded so far: 1247 (Actually, I know this number is wrong because RCP is showing delegates for states that had a caucus or primary but that award delegates at some later stage. I think all of them are in Romney's column, though)

Delegates remaining to be awarded: 1133

Delegates McCain needs to be the nominee: 467 (1191-724)

Percentage McCain must receive to be the nominee: 41.22%

If Huckabee gets about 82% of remaining Delegates, he wins outright going into the Convention. I don't expect that to happen, but blocking McCain is in the realm of possibility.

No it's not.

He's an economic populist, so he will not attract fiscal conservatives. He won't automatically pick up any support Romney may have gotten.

Most of the states where he can count on strong evangelical support have voted already.

Where do you propose he's going to pick up 60% of the remaining delegates?

You may think it's unlikely, but I'm only arguing that it's not impossible. I believe there is enough anti-McCain sentiment that people will vote for Governor Huckabee because he's the last one standing.

I also reject the premise that Huckabee only appeals to Evangelicals.

How anybody can continue to doubt the resiliency of the Huckabee campaign is beyond me. The guy has made it to the Final Two on a shoestring.

He is raising money faster now than at any point in the race.

However, I don't mind all the "inevitability" talk. Maybe it drive the Independents to the Democratic Primary in open states, and McCain's support will be slack because they assume they don't need to go vote.

TheCalvinator24 wrote:

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:The Republicans have the Kansas caucus, Louisiana primary, and Washington caucus... but they're just beauty contests now that McCain has a clear path to the nomination.

What happens if Huckabee wins 2 or all 3?

Not much. My understanding is that few, if any, of the remaining Republican contests are winner-take-all. McCain needs fewer than one third of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. He'll get 'em.

So it looks like for the third time in history, a sitting United States Senator will be elected to the Presidency. --Bob

Bob78164 wrote:Not much. My understanding is that few, if any, of the remaining Republican contests are winner-take-all. McCain needs fewer than one third of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. He'll get 'em.

No, he needs more than 40%, and I wouldn't be so sure about him getting them.

PlacentiaSoccerMom wrote:I don't have anything to say, but I do like your use of the word Clusterf**k.

I don't know why I still refer to the presidential race as a "clusterf**k". There aren't 10 people running in each party anymore.

Maybe I just like the word "clusterf**k". It's funny and it has a nice ring to it.

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:

PlacentiaSoccerMom wrote:I don't have anything to say, but I do like your use of the word Clusterf**k.

I don't know why I still refer to the presidential race as a "clusterf**k". There aren't 10 people running in each party anymore.

The ideologies are the new cluster****. It cracks me up to see all the talk of blocking McCain, when my husband would vote for him over Hillary! (His adopted son lives in our city.)

It's like cutting off their nose to spite their face. They have an electable candidate, but he doesn't dance to their tune, so they're supporting someone who scares many moderates.

There's the cluster****!

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:

PlacentiaSoccerMom wrote:I don't have anything to say, but I do like your use of the word Clusterf**k.

I don't know why I still refer to the presidential race as a "clusterf**k". There aren't 10 people running in each party anymore.

Maybe I just like the word "clusterf**k". It's funny and it has a nice ring to it.

That word best describes the many conference calls I have each day.

Final votes:

Louisiana
Obama - 57% (34 delegates)
Clinton - 36% (22 delegates)

Maine (yesterday)
Obama - 59% (15)
Clinton - 41% (9)

Nebraska
Obama - 68% (16)
Clinton - 32% (8 )

Virgin Islands
Obama - 92% (3)
Clinton - 8%

Washington state
Obama - 68% (43)
Clinton - 31% (15)

A clean sweep for Barack Obama. Plus, he won his second Grammy last night.

Current delegate count
Clinton - 1,147
Obama - 1,130

This race is tighter than a cat's arse.

DC, Maryland, and Virginia are tomorrow.

It cracks me up to see all the talk of blocking McCain,

Coulter has said she will campaign for Hillary if McCain is the nominee. Does this go into the same category of BS that had Alec Baldwin leaving the US if Bush was elected?

It is to laugh...