WWTBAM Bored

The networks are calling the Dem primary for Obama in a rout. I think they have it right.

Why did you put home state in quotes? Is he only pretending to be from SC?

TheConfessor wrote:Why did you put home state in quotes? Is he only pretending to be from SC?

Oh sure he was born here, but it didn't sell here and he sure said it often enough. A guy living in a 30000 sq. ft house talking about his daddy working in a mill just did not connect this time. When I checked he did have the lead in Oconee County.

If you look at the percentage difference between what the pollsters predicted and the final results, they were just about as wrong here as they were in NH. Most final polls were in the 10-15% range. The average of the polls was 14.5% which means they were off by13.5%.

In NH, the final average of the polls was Obama by 7.5% and the final results were Hillary by 3%, a 10.5% difference.

No one is going to say this time out that the polls were all wrong, but the fact is that they did worse this time, statistically speaking than they did in NH.

Now the latest "enlightened" opinion is that there was a "reverse Wilder" effect out there, that blacks claimed to be uncommitted or voting for Hillary when they were in fact committed to Obama all along. What there really is out there is a "pollster CYA" effect, whereby pollsters examine how far off they were and invent a rationalization for it that changes from one election to the next.

The only thing this race has shown is that it is very volatile, with big swings happening very close to election day. For the first time, we won't have the candidates concentrating on a small media market and a small number of voters. Instead, there will be elections all over the place, primaries and caucuses, blue and red states, states with substantial Hispanic and black vote and states with little. And, frankly, no one can honestly predict what is going to happen.

Caroline Kennedy has officially "endorsed" Obama:

NEW YORK (AP) — The daughter of President John F. Kennedy endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, saying he could inspire Americans in the same way her father once did.

"I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them," Caroline Kennedy wrote in an op-ed posted Saturday on the Web site of The New York Times. "But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans."

Kennedy, who was four days shy of her 6th birthday when her father was assassinated, wrote that Obama "has a special ability to get us to believe in ourselves, to tie that belief to our highest ideals and imagine that together we can do great things."

And she appealed to other parents to pick a candidate who she said could invigorate a younger generation that is too often "hopeless, defeated and disengaged."

SSS wrote: The only thing this race has shown is that it is very volatile, with big swings happening very close to election day. For the first time, we won't have the candidates concentrating on a small media market and a small number of voters. Instead, there will be elections all over the place, primaries and caucuses, blue and red states, states with substantial Hispanic and black vote and states with little. And, frankly, no one can honestly predict what is going to happen.

I predict a big victory for Obama in Colorado. His troops have done their homework, they've arrived well in advance, and they're inspired and inspiring, just as Kay's quotation about President Kennedy said.

Clinton's crew showed up Thursday, more than two weeks after Obama's supporters did, and as far as I know, they have zero volunteers vs. at least a dozen who are working for Obama.

I'm happy with any one of the three. I don't like any of their health plans, and I think that whoever is elected will struggle mightily with Iraq no matter what she/he says about it now.

silverscreenselect wrote:If you look at the percentage difference between what the pollsters predicted and the final results, they were just about as wrong here as they were in NH. Most final polls were in the 10-15% range. The average of the polls was 14.5% which means they were off by13.5%.

I think there was a big swing to Obama in the last week. Bill got lots of bad press for what was perceived as attacks on Obama, Obama's campaign machine did a very good job, it seemed has Obama was everywhere in the state and he seemed much more likable than Hillary.