WWTBAM Bored

And that's considered bad because last year they were up 26%.

Why it it that people expect things to keep climbing at an extraordinary rate?

Bob Juch wrote:And that's considered bad because last year they were up 26%.

Why it it that people expect things to keep climbing at an extraordinary rate?

Poor scientific knowledge. The masses extrapolate from current trends, never dreaming that outside forces may change the data, or noticing that the "trend" is based on very few data points. You can go back to all sorts of dire and not so dire predictions based on "current trends", and see how very few if any actually occurred.

gsabc wrote: Poor scientific knowledge. The masses extrapolate from current trends, never dreaming that outside forces may change the data, or noticing that the "trend" is based on very few data points. You can go back to all sorts of dire and not so dire predictions based on "current trends", and see how very few if any actually occurred.

You say that like its a bad thing.

I don't get it.

They are up compared to last year by 18%?

They are up compared to previous months by 18%?

What?

peacock2121 wrote:I don't get it.

They are up compared to last year by 18%?

They are up compared to previous months by 18%?

What?

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jXPJ ... gD8TJ5TG80

ComScore Inc., an Internet research company, reported Sunday that online sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 14 rose 18 percent from the same period a year ago to $22.67 billion, but that's less than the 26 percent growth rate seen last year and the 20 percent projection for the season.

Thanks, marley.

Bob Juch wrote:And that's considered bad because last year they were up 26%.

Why it it that people expect things to keep climbing at an extraordinary rate?

It's the same logic that politicians use when they claim to cut spending/taxes (or when they criticize some other politician for cutting spending for a favorite program): if spending on a particular program has gone up 4%/year for the last ten years, then, if spending in the next year increases 'only' by 2%, they claim that they cut spending by 50% (or, they claim that the sky is falling because some other politician 'slashed' spending on their pet program by 50%, even though spending increased spending by 2%), because a 2% increase is only 50% of the previous 4% increases.

Lots of math illiteracy (innumeracy) out there.

Well, no one really got what I meant; let me explain:

When there's a new technology, such as, let's say, cell phones, everyone seems to expect that sales will keep on increasing. Nobody ever expects that the market will become saturated.

With online shopping, there are those will do and those who won't. That's not going to change much.

When brick and mortar stores' sales are going up just a few points, having an 18% increase when there aren't too many new online shoppers, is a really great thing!

Anyway, this is the critical week for sales.

There's three places for increases in on-line spending:

1) More people shopping on-line.

2) People making a larger percentage of their overall shopping on-line.

3) People spending more, as a whole, than they did last year (and the fact that there are a few more people out there spending than there were last year).

I think that this year, the on-line retailers are concentrating more on the second element than in past years, when they concentrated on the first element. As long as Amazon only sells books, CD's and DVD's to people, there's a limit to how much their sales will go. If people start buying high ticket items from them, the chances for growth are much more. By emphasizing free shipping or in-store pickup options for online sales, the e-tailers have been much more aggressive in going after this second element this year.

There's only so much of the pie to go around, and in a couple of years, the growth rate will be slacking off a good bit more.

silverscreenselect wrote:There's three places for increases in on-line spending:

1) More people shopping on-line.

2) People making a larger percentage of their overall shopping on-line.

3) People spending more, as a whole, than they did last year (and the fact that there are a few more people out there spending than there were last year).

I think that this year, the on-line retailers are concentrating more on the second element than in past years, when they concentrated on the first element. As long as Amazon only sells books, CD's and DVD's to people, there's a limit to how much their sales will go. If people start buying high ticket items from them, the chances for growth are much more. By emphasizing free shipping or in-store pickup options for online sales, the e-tailers have been much more aggressive in going after this second element this year.

There's only so much of the pie to go around, and in a couple of years, the growth rate will be slacking off a good bit more.

Amazon does sell a lot more than books, CDs and DVDs! They are now the leader in online diamond jewelry sales.