How the Iowa Caucuses Work
Posted: Fri Dec 14, 2007 11:37 am
I've read up a bit on how the Iowa caucuses work and it is bizarre to say the least. It also indicates why all of the numbers that have been thrown around in polls may be of little value come January 3. This information is about the Democratic caucus, but I believe the Republican one works the same way.
First, the state as a whole has about 2500 delegates chosen on caucus night. These are the people whose votes actually count, and if the election results say Obama has gotten 30% of the "vote," it means he got 30% of these 2500. The delegates to the Democratic convention are chosen proportionally on the same basis, so Obama, in this case would get 30% of the Iowa delegates at the Democratic convention.
The 2500 delegates are assigned by county on the basis of how well the county supported Democratic candidates in the last presidential and gubernatorial election. So counties that voted more heavily for Kerry and Gov. Culver in the last two elections get more delegates than other counties. The ten largest (of 99 total) counties have over half the delegates.
On Jan 3, voters show up at their local precinct to vote for delegates to their county caucus. You have to stay for what can be several hours until the process is settled. Everyone votes publicly by essentially standing in one group or another, so lobbying of voters happens frequently. Each precinct is preassigned a certain number of delegates to the county convention, usually four to nine per precinct, so it doesnt' matter if ten people or 1000 people show up in a precinct, its allotted number of delegates has already been pre-determined.
You can vote for a candidate or as uncommitted. Then they do a preliminary tally of the votes and the delegates are tentatively assigned in accordance with the percentages. So if Clinton has 40% of the vote and Obama and Edwards 30% each, the delegates would be assigned as close to 4-3-3 as they can get it.
Here's where it gets interesting. A candidate has to have at least 15% of the vote in a precinct to get a delegate (25% in smaller precincts). So if Bill Richardson gets 10% of the vote, his supporters are S.O.L. At this point, however, followers of each candidate can lobby others for support. In this case, Richardson might be able to peel off enough voters from another candidate to get to 15% or one of the major candidates might be able to get his supporters to back them and get them more delegates. The math can get rather complicated, and in some cases it's better for the second place candidate to allow some of his or her voters to support the #3 or #4 person than remain in his group. When everyone is satisfied (and this can take hours) the final tallies are posted and the 4-9 (in most coutnies, although some small rural precincts may only have one delegate) to the county convention are chosen.
The county and state conventions will be held later but once the precinct delegates are chosen, those results can be calculated fairly easily.
From this, it might appear that candidates who do better in the big counties would be at an advantage, but in actuality, it takes fewer voters to win a delegate from a rural county than an urban one. One of the reasons that Howard Dean fared so poorly was that his base included a lot of student voters who wound up concentrated in a small number of precincts so that their voting power was diluted. In many rural precincts, he couldn't get any delegates at all. It took about 80 voters in Iowa City, home of the U. of Iowa to gain one state delegate, while it took about 23 in the smallest rural county. Candidates who have wide support in the state will fare better than those who have heavy support in a more concentrated area.
Second place choices are important, but more often of the lesser candidates. Clinton, Obama and Edwards will probably be above the minimum 15% threshhold in the vast majority of counties, but Dodd, Richardson, Biden and Kucinich will not. Their supporters will have to decide whether to band together to get one of them over the 15% threshhold or back one of the big three. Even the big three can be out of luck in some precincts. 2004 winner John Kerry got no delegates in over 200 of state's 1800 precincts. The math can get very complicated and the candidates' precinct captains will have some pretty sophisticated spreadsheets available to help them decide their strategy.
What it's all going to boil down to is who gets out the vote in each precinct, how committed that vote is, each campaign's overall strategy as to swapping around votes, and how quick on their feet the precinct captains are for each candidate. The right or wrong strategy can easily sway a few delegate totals in a few precincts which will be enough to make the eventual difference. For example, if Edwards should be below 15% in a precinct and can't get to the total, will his backers be instructed to support Obama or Hillary, and even if instructed, will they do so? Might one of the big three strike a back room deal with Richardson or Biden to swing support their way?
All of this makes for an interesting evening a good indication of why all these polls have to be taken with a grain of salt right now.
First, the state as a whole has about 2500 delegates chosen on caucus night. These are the people whose votes actually count, and if the election results say Obama has gotten 30% of the "vote," it means he got 30% of these 2500. The delegates to the Democratic convention are chosen proportionally on the same basis, so Obama, in this case would get 30% of the Iowa delegates at the Democratic convention.
The 2500 delegates are assigned by county on the basis of how well the county supported Democratic candidates in the last presidential and gubernatorial election. So counties that voted more heavily for Kerry and Gov. Culver in the last two elections get more delegates than other counties. The ten largest (of 99 total) counties have over half the delegates.
On Jan 3, voters show up at their local precinct to vote for delegates to their county caucus. You have to stay for what can be several hours until the process is settled. Everyone votes publicly by essentially standing in one group or another, so lobbying of voters happens frequently. Each precinct is preassigned a certain number of delegates to the county convention, usually four to nine per precinct, so it doesnt' matter if ten people or 1000 people show up in a precinct, its allotted number of delegates has already been pre-determined.
You can vote for a candidate or as uncommitted. Then they do a preliminary tally of the votes and the delegates are tentatively assigned in accordance with the percentages. So if Clinton has 40% of the vote and Obama and Edwards 30% each, the delegates would be assigned as close to 4-3-3 as they can get it.
Here's where it gets interesting. A candidate has to have at least 15% of the vote in a precinct to get a delegate (25% in smaller precincts). So if Bill Richardson gets 10% of the vote, his supporters are S.O.L. At this point, however, followers of each candidate can lobby others for support. In this case, Richardson might be able to peel off enough voters from another candidate to get to 15% or one of the major candidates might be able to get his supporters to back them and get them more delegates. The math can get rather complicated, and in some cases it's better for the second place candidate to allow some of his or her voters to support the #3 or #4 person than remain in his group. When everyone is satisfied (and this can take hours) the final tallies are posted and the 4-9 (in most coutnies, although some small rural precincts may only have one delegate) to the county convention are chosen.
The county and state conventions will be held later but once the precinct delegates are chosen, those results can be calculated fairly easily.
From this, it might appear that candidates who do better in the big counties would be at an advantage, but in actuality, it takes fewer voters to win a delegate from a rural county than an urban one. One of the reasons that Howard Dean fared so poorly was that his base included a lot of student voters who wound up concentrated in a small number of precincts so that their voting power was diluted. In many rural precincts, he couldn't get any delegates at all. It took about 80 voters in Iowa City, home of the U. of Iowa to gain one state delegate, while it took about 23 in the smallest rural county. Candidates who have wide support in the state will fare better than those who have heavy support in a more concentrated area.
Second place choices are important, but more often of the lesser candidates. Clinton, Obama and Edwards will probably be above the minimum 15% threshhold in the vast majority of counties, but Dodd, Richardson, Biden and Kucinich will not. Their supporters will have to decide whether to band together to get one of them over the 15% threshhold or back one of the big three. Even the big three can be out of luck in some precincts. 2004 winner John Kerry got no delegates in over 200 of state's 1800 precincts. The math can get very complicated and the candidates' precinct captains will have some pretty sophisticated spreadsheets available to help them decide their strategy.
What it's all going to boil down to is who gets out the vote in each precinct, how committed that vote is, each campaign's overall strategy as to swapping around votes, and how quick on their feet the precinct captains are for each candidate. The right or wrong strategy can easily sway a few delegate totals in a few precincts which will be enough to make the eventual difference. For example, if Edwards should be below 15% in a precinct and can't get to the total, will his backers be instructed to support Obama or Hillary, and even if instructed, will they do so? Might one of the big three strike a back room deal with Richardson or Biden to swing support their way?
All of this makes for an interesting evening a good indication of why all these polls have to be taken with a grain of salt right now.