Rasmussen Shows Race Still Open
Posted: Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:53 pm
Rasmussen's final state battleground polls show McCain leading or tied in OH, FL, MO and NC and within the margin of error in VA and CO.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ber_2_2008
To win, McCain would have to hold the states he is ahead or tied in plus flip one more state, most probably VA, CO or PA (which wasn't included in this poll). Obviously, he has very little room for error.
However in a close race, undecided voters and close elections tend to break one way or the other. In 2002, virtually all the close races broke for the Republicans. In 2006, they broke for the Democrats. So, if these races show a trend towards McCain, then it could make for a very, very long evening. If they show a trend towards Obama, it'll be over by 9:00.
I read an interesting article which brought up the 1992 British elections. The ruling Conservative government was very unpopular and the majority of the polls showed them losing by 1-2%. Instead, they won the popular vote by 7.5% and held onto a slim majority of the seats in Parliament. The pollsters then re-examined their methodologies and came up with what they deemed the "Shy Tory factor," by which people understated their preference for the Conservatives both in pre-election and exit polls (because the Conservatives were widely unpopular). Since then, the pollsters have adjusted their methodology to take this into account.
And of course, there's the New Hampshire primary this year, where every final poll had Obama ahead, most by 7-13 points, and Hillary won by 2 points.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ber_2_2008
To win, McCain would have to hold the states he is ahead or tied in plus flip one more state, most probably VA, CO or PA (which wasn't included in this poll). Obviously, he has very little room for error.
However in a close race, undecided voters and close elections tend to break one way or the other. In 2002, virtually all the close races broke for the Republicans. In 2006, they broke for the Democrats. So, if these races show a trend towards McCain, then it could make for a very, very long evening. If they show a trend towards Obama, it'll be over by 9:00.
I read an interesting article which brought up the 1992 British elections. The ruling Conservative government was very unpopular and the majority of the polls showed them losing by 1-2%. Instead, they won the popular vote by 7.5% and held onto a slim majority of the seats in Parliament. The pollsters then re-examined their methodologies and came up with what they deemed the "Shy Tory factor," by which people understated their preference for the Conservatives both in pre-election and exit polls (because the Conservatives were widely unpopular). Since then, the pollsters have adjusted their methodology to take this into account.
And of course, there's the New Hampshire primary this year, where every final poll had Obama ahead, most by 7-13 points, and Hillary won by 2 points.