WWTBAM Bored

CNN is reporting that the McCain campaign has decided that Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico are out of reach. Those three states, which all voted for Bush in 2004, combined with the Kerry states, total 273 electoral votes.

If the report is correct, McCain's only chance of victory is to flip a Kerry state. He's apparently targeting Pennsylvania. So I guess we know where the central front of the election is going to be.

Sorry, KT, VA_Dame, beedums, jeemie, melly, and anyone else I may have forgotten who lives there. --Bob

Bob78164 wrote:CNN is reporting that the McCain campaign has decided that Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico are out of reach. Those three states, which all voted for Bush in 2004, combined with the Kerry states, total 273 electoral votes.

If the report is correct, McCain's only chance of victory is to flip a Kerry state. He's apparently targeting Pennsylvania. So I guess we know where the central front of the election is going to be.

Sorry, KT, VA_Dame, beedums, jeemie, melly, and anyone else I may have forgotten who lives there. --Bob

I frankly don't understand the RNC's campaign thinking on this. CO and NM, while seeming to trend towards the blue, are a lot closer, IIRC, than PA, where Sen. McCain is trailing by double digits (according to realclearpolitics.com -- normally, I'd quote fivethirtyeight.com, which I like better, but their state details aren't up at the moment--, it's about +12 for PA, vs. +5.5 and +8 for Sen. Obama in CO and NM, respectively). Yes, electoral-vote-wise, PA is the biggest prize with 21 electors compared to CO+NM at 14 total....but it's a much bigger hump to overcome, I would think.

The sheer number of political ads on both sides of this race here in Western PA is staggering....it seems as though both campaigns are using saturation bombing of the airwaves. What's most annoying is the timbre of the advertising (again, on both sides, although in all fairness it's significantly MORE negative on one side than the other, where we've been getting at least a few positive ads....not many, but a few). I personally can't wait until 11/5. But on the whole, I'd imagine we've got it easy compared to the REAL battleground states of FL, OH (we do get some bleedover there), NV, VA and NC....there can't be anything being advertised EXCEPT these campaigns in those states. So you should really pity the people in those states before us....but pity us, too!

KillerTomato wrote:

Bob78164 wrote:CNN is reporting that the McCain campaign has decided that Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico are out of reach. Those three states, which all voted for Bush in 2004, combined with the Kerry states, total 273 electoral votes.

If the report is correct, McCain's only chance of victory is to flip a Kerry state. He's apparently targeting Pennsylvania. So I guess we know where the central front of the election is going to be.

Sorry, KT, VA_Dame, beedums, jeemie, melly, and anyone else I may have forgotten who lives there. --Bob

I frankly don't understand the RNC's campaign thinking on this. CO and NM, while seeming to trend towards the blue, are a lot closer, IIRC, than PA, where Sen. McCain is trailing by double digits (according to realclearpolitics.com -- normally, I'd quote fivethirtyeight.com, which I like better, but their state details aren't up at the moment--, it's about +12 for PA, vs. +5.5 and +8 for Sen. Obama in CO and NM, respectively). Yes, electoral-vote-wise, PA is the biggest prize with 21 electors compared to CO+NM at 14 total....but it's a much bigger hump to overcome, I would think.

Also, if McCain holds either Colorado or New Mexico, together with the remaining Bush states (other than Iowa), he gets the win.

I think you're right that based on the information we have, McCain is making a strategic mistake. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Obama has a 98% chance to win Pennsylvania, but only a 90% chance to win Colorado and a 93% chance to win New Mexico. It wouldn't surprise me, though, if early voting (particularly in Colorado), together with the complete lack of ground game McCain has evidenced in those two states, have driven this decision. Essentially, Obama is banking votes now and has the ground game to get them in the bank in large numbers. Even if McCain could turn the polls around, it's too late to save him in those two states.

I read (I think on FiveThirtyEight) that something similar happened in the California primary. Hillary's strategists knew they had it won, even though Obama was closing hard in the days leading to Election Day, because they already had so many votes in the bank that it was simply impossible for Obama to close the gap. --Bob

Bob78164 wrote:CNN is reporting that the McCain campaign has decided that Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico are out of reach. Those three states, which all voted for Bush in 2004, combined with the Kerry states, total 273 electoral votes.

If the report is correct, McCain's only chance of victory is to flip a Kerry state. He's apparently targeting Pennsylvania. So I guess we know where the central front of the election is going to be.

Sorry, KT, VA_Dame, beedums, jeemie, melly, and anyone else I may have forgotten who lives there. --Bob

Mr. Bush visited Pennsylvania at least 40 times in 2004, hoping that he could flip the state. He didn't. Mr. Kerry still won Pennsylvania by 2.5%.

It should also be noted that Mr. Kerry's biggest lead in Pennsylvania during the month of October 2004 was 7 points. Mr. Obama's current lead in Pennsylvania is 14 points, with the average of all recent polls (according to Pollster.com) giving him a 15.2-point lead.

Good luck with that strategery, Mr. McCain!

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:[Mr. Bush visited Pennsylvania at least 40 times in 2004, hoping that he could flip the state. He didn't. Mr. Kerry still won Pennsylvania by 2.5%.

It should also be noted that Mr. Kerry's biggest lead in Pennsylvania during the month of October 2004 was 7 points. Mr. Obama's current lead in Pennsylvania is 14 points, with the average of all recent polls (according to Pollster.com) giving him a 15.2-point lead.

Good luck with that strategery, Mr. McCain!

I don't know who "Mr. Bush" is. He didn't win any states. President Bush didn't win Pennsylvania either, but then again, Kerry didn't say they were all bitter, holding onto their guns and religion.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/politic ... etail.html

Wishful thinking by CNN

Sorry, KT, VA_Dame, beedums, jeemie, melly, and anyone else I may have forgotten who lives there. --Bob

He may target us -- don't mean he'll get us.

BackInTex wrote:

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:[Mr. Bush visited Pennsylvania at least 40 times in 2004, hoping that he could flip the state. He didn't. Mr. Kerry still won Pennsylvania by 2.5%.

It should also be noted that Mr. Kerry's biggest lead in Pennsylvania during the month of October 2004 was 7 points. Mr. Obama's current lead in Pennsylvania is 14 points, with the average of all recent polls (according to Pollster.com) giving him a 15.2-point lead.

Good luck with that strategery, Mr. McCain!

I don't know who "Mr. Bush" is. He didn't win any states. President Bush didn't win Pennsylvania either, but then again, Kerry didn't say they were all bitter, holding onto their guns and religion.

I can only imagine how big Mr. Obama's lead would've been in Pennsylvania if he hadn't said that. Because of that comment, he leads by "only" 14 points.

Nice try.

If he's trying to get Pennsylvania, he's not trying hard in my region- I've seen and heard a lot of Obama ads, but very few McCain ads.

Then again- I live near Philly...where even the suburbs are trending more blue...so that could be the reason.

Speaking of which, we got called by the Obama campaign last night (my wife is a Democrat, so we get called a lot by Dem candidates).

She wasn't home, so I told them she was still undecided. They then asked about me, and I must have made them happy...I told them I'm GOP, but I also told them I'm voting for Barr...which I'm sure they'll translate as a vote for Obama.

Haven't been called by the McCain campaign even once...maybe they're counting on all those racists in Western Pennsylvania, and that's why they're focusing there.

Strangely, I got a robo-call from the GOP on Saturday inviting us to come out & see McCain at Robert Morris Univ. today. I can't imagine why they would call my house! First Republican call ever to us, that I'm aware of. Even if they're just dialing randomly, wouldn't the odds be that I'd have gotten a Republi-Call before now -- after all, I've had the same phone # for 26 years

A couple of things about this...

1) Right after the Republican convention, the LA Times did a story about women from Uniontown, PA, and what effect Sarah Palin might have on their votes.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la ... full.story

This is before all the economic problems. At the time, I thought it could be an outlier because of all the Hillary support in the area. Now, I'm not so sure.

2) A guy I worked with at the Ed and Labor committee in DC 15 years ago now does labor-management coalition work in Pittsburgh. (He's from out that way -- Alliquippa, IIRC - and knows the people pretty well).

We've been exchanging emails. He said that the Rich Trumka video is getting a LOT of play; IIRC (and it's been weeks since I've seen it), it makes a pretty good case for why Obama would be better economically. He thinks it may be a contributing factor to a smaller percentage of McCain supporters in Western PA than originally thought.

Sorry, I can't link video from work. Again, it was made prior to the Wall Street meltdown.

3) The mine workers from Blacksville(?), WVA. Even though it was in WVA, my friend, Doug, tells me that it, too, is getting lots of play among the people he works with.

End of September, a filmmaker representing the NRA went to a mine owned by Consol and asked the miners to slam Barack Obama for a commercial.

Not only did the miners NOT bad mouth Senator Obama, 440 of them took what they call a Memorial Day which is, basically, a brief walkout for cause. These guys felt strongly enough about Obama to stage a walkout.

http://www.wboy.com/story.cfm?email=1&f ... ryid=44752

4) Senator McCain's appearance in BlueBell, PA, to announce his economic plan. According to my cousin, Dot, there were about 1,000 people there, which is what The Philadelphia Inquirer said, too.

Dot and her husband live in Blue Bell, are registered Republicans and tend to vote that way.

She said that there was a black curtain over part of the auditorium where the rally was held. As if they had cordoned off a section because they didn't get as many people as they expected.

She said she didn't even notice it; her husband did. They got their notice through email from the Montgomery County Republicans and RSVPd. Both were surprised it was as small as it was for the magnitude of the announcement. They aren't big donors, they aren't mahoffs. So they aren't sure who got the email (or phone call).

4) Senator Bob Casey is doing a bus tour of NEPA for Obama. He's been getting crowds between 150-300 people. That might not sound like a lot but we're talking towns of 1,500-2,500 people in heavily Republican areas.

There is a chance that Obama could get as much as 35-40% of the vote in the area. This is one of the few areas of the state that voted for Barry Goldwater in 1964.

I have no idea what effect any of this is actually going to have. According to PolitickerPA, Senator Obama's composite lead is still 12 points today. The undecideds are 5%, which is the smallest they have been since the beginning.

I've always said the race would tighten here. I still say Obama carries PA but certainly not by 12 points.

Bob78164 wrote: I think you're right that based on the information we have, McCain is making a strategic mistake. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Obama has a 98% chance to win Pennsylvania, but only a 90% chance to win Colorado and a 93% chance to win New Mexico. It wouldn't surprise me, though, if early voting (particularly in Colorado), together with the complete lack of ground game McCain has evidenced in those two states, have driven this decision. Essentially, Obama is banking votes now and has the ground game to get them in the bank in large numbers. Even if McCain could turn the polls around, it's too late to save him in those two states.

Bob's right -- Obama's ground game has been like a juggernaut here in Colorado since January. We had record turnout in caucuses all over the state, and as FiveThirtyEight.com points out, the volunteer numbers and excitement still outpace McCain by a substantial margin. Obama votes are getting into the bank right now with unprecedented early turnout. Palin gave the McCain campaign a shot in the arm until she started opening her mouth, and the volunteers who were energized are shrinking away. Big city volunteers are appalled at her implication that they live in fake America, and small town volunteers are appalled at what they perceive to be a patronizing characterization.

Also at work in Colorado and New Mexico are the Udall Senate races. The RNC gave up NM early on against Tom Udall, and despite $15 million in attack ads, Mark Udall still leads in Colorado. Just a guess, the RNC maybe extrapolated from those races into an Obama victory.

A really interesting quote from Terry Madonna, a guy I really respect, in this morning's Philadelphia Inquirer.

G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, said of the McCain campaign: "I think they're still here because they can't get out. They can't pull out because it would be psychologically devastating to their campaign nationally."