WWTBAM Bored

Headline on Drudge.... GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS

Read it and weep:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... vs_mccain/

danielh41 wrote:Headline on Drudge.... GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS

All together now:

National polls are horses**t®!

McCain can be ahead 10 points nationally, but if he can't hold on to Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, it's irrelevant.

At the very least, Obama will get 264 electoral votes (all Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico). If he wins just one more state amongst the eight I listed above, it's over.

NellyLunatic1980 wrote:

danielh41 wrote:Headline on Drudge.... GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS

All together now:

National polls are horses**t®!

McCain can be ahead 10 points nationally, but if he can't hold on to Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, it's irrelevant.

At the very least, Obama will get 264 electoral votes (all Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico). If he wins just one more state amongst the eight I listed above, it's over.

THAT national poll is an outlier. And state polls ARE more important than national polls. But state polls move with national polls. If the race were really 2 points, McCain would be in a much better position in the state polls. Still not a very good one, but a much better position than he's in now.

If McCain were ahead in the national polls by a point or two, it'd be a horse race.

Thankfully, short of a dead girl, live boy or Osama, that's not going to happen.

ToLiveIsToFly wrote:THAT national poll is an outlier.

I love how any poll that someone doesn't like is automatically an outlier.

Based on what I am seeing on RealClearPolitics, I believe the national race is between 4 and 5 points.

I still think it will take a miracle for McCain to win, but a 2 point poll is not an outlier when the "real" spread is within the margin of error.

It ain't over yet, but with any luck it WILL be over on the night of November 4th.

The challenge has always been getting people to actually vote rather than state who they "intend" to vote for. Which I find to be mind-boggling.

TheCalvinator24 wrote:I love how any poll that someone doesn't like is automatically an outlier.

Based on what I am seeing on RealClearPolitics, I believe the national race is between 4 and 5 points.

I still think it will take a miracle for McCain to win, but a 2 point poll is not an outlier when the "real" spread is within the margin of error.

Yeah, it is an outlier. Try fivethirtyeight.com instead.

And don't forget Gore won the popular vote in 2000 by a narrow margin. It's the electoral votes that have McCain playing catch-up.

TheCalvinator24 wrote:

ToLiveIsToFly wrote:THAT national poll is an outlier.

I love how any poll that someone doesn't like is automatically an outlier.

Based on what I am seeing on RealClearPolitics, I believe the national race is between 4 and 5 points.

I still think it will take a miracle for McCain to win, but a 2 point poll is not an outlier when the "real" spread is within the margin of error.

Polls that came out yesterday:
Battleground: O +6
Diageo: O +8
Gallup (registered voters): O +6
Gallup (likely voters, traditional): O +2
Gallup (likely voters, expanded): O +6
IBD: O +3
Rasmussen: O +6
Research 2000: O +10
Zogby: O +5.5

I'd love the R2000 poll to be correct, but it looks like an outlier to me, also.

ToLiveIsToFly wrote: THAT national poll is an outlier. And state polls ARE more important than national polls. But state polls move with national polls. If the race were really 2 points, McCain would be in a much better position in the state polls. Still not a very good one, but a much better position than he's in now.

State polls are more valuable, but state polls trail national polls by about a week or so. McCain didn't really get a big boost in the state polls until about a week after the Republican convention. Similarly, his results didn't start going in the toilet until about a week after the Lehman/Merrill Lynch meltdown.

The national tracking polls are rolling polls done every day and are far more accurate indicators of the current public mindset.

It's obvious that both parties feel Pennsylvania is still in play (and there's a lot of anecdotal support for that). If McCain takes PA, holds FL and OH, then Obama has to make up a good bit more ground in other states. Joe the plumber is going to have traction, as much for how Obama is reacting to him as to the initial encounter. And there will be some dirt coming out about Michelle Obama (although maybe not the infamous "whitey" tape). It's going to be a fun two weeks.

Sean Hannity's show this Sunday will probably give a good indication of what dirt the Republicans have left, because he has already announced he'll have some "interesting" new stuff about Obama.

ToLiveIsToFly wrote: Research 2000: O +10


I'd love the R2000 poll to be correct, but it looks like an outlier to me, also.

The Research 2000 poll is sponsored by Daily Kos and has consistently been the most favorable to Obama.

maybe it will be found out that Obama had a white baby out of wedlock.

Polls, Schmolls.

BigDrawMan wrote:maybe it will be found out that Obama had a white baby out of wedlock.

At least we'd know something about his past.

Anyone know why we don't know what his grades in college were? Don't cha wonder why that is?

He is the most secretive candidate for national office we've ever had. Doesn't that concern you? Why not?

BackInTex wrote:

BigDrawMan wrote:maybe it will be found out that Obama had a white baby out of wedlock.

At least we'd know something about his past.

Anyone know why we don't know what his grades in college were? Don't cha wonder why that is?

He is the most secretive candidate for national office we've ever had. Doesn't that concern you? Why not?

IIRC, he graduated magna cum laude.

BackInTex wrote:

BigDrawMan wrote:maybe it will be found out that Obama had a white baby out of wedlock.

At least we'd know something about his past.

Anyone know why we don't know what his grades in college were? Don't cha wonder why that is?

He is the most secretive candidate for national office we've ever had. Doesn't that concern you? Why not?

Because your premise is false. --Bob

Bob78164 wrote:

BackInTex wrote:

BigDrawMan wrote:maybe it will be found out that Obama had a white baby out of wedlock.

At least we'd know something about his past.

Anyone know why we don't know what his grades in college were? Don't cha wonder why that is?

He is the most secretive candidate for national office we've ever had. Doesn't that concern you? Why not?

Because your premise is false. --Bob

We don't have his birth certificate, his school records, his medical records or his records from eight years in the Illinois State Senate. Considering his dearth of accomplishments, the school records and state senate records might shed some light on what he actually has been doing his entire life. And regardless of his age, he's a smoker and at risk of a stroke so his medical records should be relevent as well.

Certainly that's more relevent than Joe the plumber's tax lien.