Clusterf**k to the White House -- T-minus 22 days
Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:23 am
I haven't done this in a few weeks, so let's see where all of the states stand right now.
Electoral-Vote.com
Colored states are flips from the 2004 presidential race.
Strong Obama
California (56-40), Connecticut (52-37), D.C. (82-13), Delaware (56-38), Hawaii (68-27), Illinois (54-40), Iowa (54-41), Maryland (57-38), Massachusetts (56-39), Michigan (56-40), New Hampshire (53-43), New Jersey (50-40), New York (58-37), Oregon (54-43), Pennsylvania (52-40), Rhode Island (48-26), Vermont (60-36), Washington state (53-43)
Weak Obama
Maine (51-46), Minnesota (51-44), New Mexico (49-43), Virginia (51-45), West Virginia (50-42), Wisconsin (52-43)
Barely Obama
Colorado (49-45), Florida (50-46), Nevada (49-46), North Dakota (45-43), Ohio (49-46)
Tied
Missouri (48-48)
Barely McCain
Indiana (49-45), North Carolina (49-48)
Weak McCain
Georgia (52-46), Mississippi (52-44), Montana (51-45)
Strong McCain
Alabama (59-35), Alaska (55-39), Arizona (52-38), Arkansas (52-42), Idaho (62-33), Kansas (56-40), Kentucky (53-42), Louisiana (55-40), Nebraska (56-37), Oklahoma (65-32), South Carolina (54-41), South Dakota (55-39), Tennessee (57-39), Texas (57-38), Utah (64-28), Wyoming (57-36)
Those latest poll numbers from North Dakota and West Virginia look like outliers. I haven't seen any other polls confirm these numbers.
Electoral College
Obama - 346
McCain - 181
Tied - 11
Pollster.com
(excluding all non-flip states where a candidate is 10 points ahead or more)
Iowa +11.4 Obama (53.2-41.8 )
Pennsylvania +7.8 Obama (50.3-42.5)
Maine +7.5 Obama (50.7-43.2)
New Jersey +7.4 Obama (49.8-42.4)
Michigan +6.6 Obama (49.3-42.7)
Colorado +6.3 Obama (50.9-44.6)
New Mexico +6.2 Obama (49.4-43.2)
Washington +5.9 Obama (49.7-43.8 )
Florida +5.6 Obama (50.2-44.6)
New Hampshire +5.3 Obama (49.7-44.4)
Minnesota +4.7 Obama (49.5-44.8 )
Ohio +4.3 Obama (49.2-44.9)
Virginia +3.1 Obama (49.7-46.6)
Nevada +1.8 Obama (48.9-47.1)
North Carolina +0.7 Obama (47.9-47.2)
West Virginia +1.1 McCain (46.3-45.2)
Indiana +2.5 McCain (48-45.5)
Missouri +2.9 McCain (49.1-46.2)
Georgia +7.5 McCain (51.3-43.8 )
Montana +7.7 McCain (51.2-43.5)
Electoral College
Obama - 353
McCain - 185
Electoral College (excluding tossup states)
Obama - 320
McCain - 158
RealClearPolitics.com shows similar numbers to those of Pollster.com.
Electoral-Vote.com
Colored states are flips from the 2004 presidential race.
Strong Obama
California (56-40), Connecticut (52-37), D.C. (82-13), Delaware (56-38), Hawaii (68-27), Illinois (54-40), Iowa (54-41), Maryland (57-38), Massachusetts (56-39), Michigan (56-40), New Hampshire (53-43), New Jersey (50-40), New York (58-37), Oregon (54-43), Pennsylvania (52-40), Rhode Island (48-26), Vermont (60-36), Washington state (53-43)
Weak Obama
Maine (51-46), Minnesota (51-44), New Mexico (49-43), Virginia (51-45), West Virginia (50-42), Wisconsin (52-43)
Barely Obama
Colorado (49-45), Florida (50-46), Nevada (49-46), North Dakota (45-43), Ohio (49-46)
Tied
Missouri (48-48)
Barely McCain
Indiana (49-45), North Carolina (49-48)
Weak McCain
Georgia (52-46), Mississippi (52-44), Montana (51-45)
Strong McCain
Alabama (59-35), Alaska (55-39), Arizona (52-38), Arkansas (52-42), Idaho (62-33), Kansas (56-40), Kentucky (53-42), Louisiana (55-40), Nebraska (56-37), Oklahoma (65-32), South Carolina (54-41), South Dakota (55-39), Tennessee (57-39), Texas (57-38), Utah (64-28), Wyoming (57-36)
Those latest poll numbers from North Dakota and West Virginia look like outliers. I haven't seen any other polls confirm these numbers.
Electoral College
Obama - 346
McCain - 181
Tied - 11
Pollster.com
(excluding all non-flip states where a candidate is 10 points ahead or more)
Iowa +11.4 Obama (53.2-41.8 )
Pennsylvania +7.8 Obama (50.3-42.5)
Maine +7.5 Obama (50.7-43.2)
New Jersey +7.4 Obama (49.8-42.4)
Michigan +6.6 Obama (49.3-42.7)
Colorado +6.3 Obama (50.9-44.6)
New Mexico +6.2 Obama (49.4-43.2)
Washington +5.9 Obama (49.7-43.8 )
Florida +5.6 Obama (50.2-44.6)
New Hampshire +5.3 Obama (49.7-44.4)
Minnesota +4.7 Obama (49.5-44.8 )
Ohio +4.3 Obama (49.2-44.9)
Virginia +3.1 Obama (49.7-46.6)
Nevada +1.8 Obama (48.9-47.1)
North Carolina +0.7 Obama (47.9-47.2)
West Virginia +1.1 McCain (46.3-45.2)
Indiana +2.5 McCain (48-45.5)
Missouri +2.9 McCain (49.1-46.2)
Georgia +7.5 McCain (51.3-43.8 )
Montana +7.7 McCain (51.2-43.5)
Electoral College
Obama - 353
McCain - 185
Electoral College (excluding tossup states)
Obama - 320
McCain - 158
RealClearPolitics.com shows similar numbers to those of Pollster.com.