Huge Lottery

[littlebeast13]

It has reached the totally ridiculous level of $640 MILLION.

I noticed that when I stopped in the local convenience store a few minutes ago, and was wondering if their sign was broke....

lb13

[christie1111]

One funny thing I've seen on the news and in the papers: People from Nevada are crossing into California and waiting for hours in line in order to gamble!

Well, on the other side is Utah, which is out of the question for lottery purchases.

I bet Georgia is slammed, since Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi aren't MegaMillions states.

Alaska and Hawaii don't have a convenient state nearby for their purchases...

There are no lotteries of any kind in Hawai'i.

[SportsFan68]

I think I've mentioned before that I don't have much contact with the people in my office any more, so I haven't been invited to enter the pool for lottery ticket purchases. My fear is that they'll win, retire en masse and leave me here to answer all the phones.

SteelersFan's office buys tickets in a pool, and if they win, that's exactly what will happen. He works for a small delivery company, and if they hit, everybody who ships with them can figure out another way to get their stuff delivered the next day.

[ShamelessWeasel]

It is now too much money. As much fun as it is to dream about, and with as many tickets as I already have I am hoping I win in the lottery group I am in.

I do not think that I would be able to handle the enormous pressure that would come if I was the single winner. Everyone would be coming at you with business ideas, charity request, ill parents, and the lot and saying no makes you look like a cold heartless bastard but you can't help everyone.

[littlebeast13]

I do not think that I would be able to handle the enormous pressure that would come if I was the single winner. Everyone would be coming at you with business ideas, charity request, ill parents, and the lot and saying no makes you look like a cold heartless bastard but you can't help everyone.

This is where it would help to have already established yourself as a cold, heartless bastard. People already expect me to ignore their monetary requests.....

lb13

[minimetoo26]

One funny thing I've seen on the news and in the papers: People from Nevada are crossing into California and waiting for hours in line in order to gamble!

Well, on the other side is Utah, which is out of the question for lottery purchases.

I bet Georgia is slammed, since Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi aren't MegaMillions states.

Alaska and Hawaii don't have a convenient state nearby for their purchases...

There are no lotteries of any kind in Hawai'i.

No gambling of any kind! Utah is the same way.

Nevada and Mississippi have casinos but no lottery. If you live in Nevada, it's better to go to California than Arizona since AZ taxes non-residents 6% and CA has no tax on prizes. Plus you have to be 21 to play in AZ. Florida has casinos and lottery but no MM, and Alabama doesn't either, so you have to go to Georgia from either state, unless you're in northern Alabama.

So you can get those pictures of long lines in places like CA and GA, but I haven't seen them here. But after 5 pm on a Friday at the end of the month when people get paid, I'm sure I'll see lines if I'm out tonight...

[TheCalvinator24]

While buying my tickets, a guy in line said that news reports indicated that all possible combinations have already been sold. If true, that means two things: 1) there will be at least one winner; & 2) if you are just now buying a ticket, if you win, you are guaranteed to be splitting the jackpot with at least one other winner.

[christie1111]

I was going to buy 5 tickets at lunch and while I was out running errands they mentioned that the location of the purchase of the winning ticket will get $1Million so they were suggesting that you not buy it at a big chain but at a small store you frequent and prefer.

Downside of that is your favorite convienience/liquor store will close! But yo uwill have probably moved neighborhoods so I guess it doesn't matter!

I didn't buy them yet but will stop by a place I like on my way home.

[Bob Juch]

If you live in Nevada, it's better to go to California than Arizona since AZ taxes non-residents 6% and CA has no tax on prizes.

I read a news blurb yesterday that said that California was hoping to have the winner as they'd get $100 million in taxes.

[TheConfessor]

While buying my tickets, a guy in line said that news reports indicated that all possible combinations have already been sold. If true, that means two things: 1) there will be at least one winner; & 2) if you are just now buying a ticket, if you win, you are guaranteed to be splitting the jackpot with at least one other winner.

And just how would some guy in line with you know that? It seems extremely unlikely to me. I could easily believe that 90% of the 176,000,000 combinations are covered at least once, but it would take an enormous increase in sales to boost that to 99% covered, and another enormous increase in sales to boost that to 99.9%, etc., and so on. But even if you got to the point where 99.999999% of the combinations were covered and there's only one remaining unbought combination, you'd still have to buy 176,000,000 more tickets just to have a 50% chance of covering that last remaining combination.

Notwithstanding my extreme skepticism about the claim by the guy you heard in line, I would agree that there is a pretty strong chance of having multiple winners tonight.

[themanintheseersuckersuit]

[smilergrogan]

While buying my tickets, a guy in line said that news reports indicated that all possible combinations have already been sold.

When you let the machine select the numbers randomly for your ticket, is there some means by which it will only select a combination not already picked (doesn't seem likely)? And a $640 million prize translates to maybe 1.3 billion tickets sold? (it's $1 a ticket, right, and ~50% goes to payout?). Because otherwise, it's still extremely unlikely that all 175 million combinations would have been sold in 1.3 billion tickets

For a given combination, the chance that it would not be selected in 1.3 billion tickets generated randomly is
(1 - 1/175,000,000)^1,300,000,000 = 0.00059, so there's a 0.059% chance any given combination will not have been selected (and a 99.941% chance it will have been). Taking all the combinations together, there would then be a 0.99941^175,000,000 = < 1 in 10^100 chance that all of them will have been selected.

[Obscenely Rich Bastard]

While buying my tickets, a guy in line said that news reports indicated that all possible combinations have already been sold. If true, that means two things: 1) there will be at least one winner; & 2) if you are just now buying a ticket, if you win, you are guaranteed to be splitting the jackpot with at least one other winner.

And just how would some guy in line with you know that? It seems extremely unlikely to me. I could easily believe that 90% of the 176,000,000 combinations are covered at least once, but it would take an enormous increase in sales to boost that to 99% covered, and another enormous increase in sales to boost that to 99.9%, etc., and so on. But even if you got to the point where 99.999999% of the combinations were covered and there's only one remaining unbought combination, you'd still have to buy 176,000,000 more tickets just to have a 50% chance of covering that last remaining combination.

Notwithstanding my extreme skepticism about the claim by the guy you heard in line, I would agree that there is a pretty strong chance of having multiple winners tonight.

I have already bought a ticket with every possible combination on it.... how did they find out!?!?!? Did Mark John Boy squeal.....?

[TheCalvinator24]

I'm not vouching for the guy's credibility. He claimed he heard it on the news. He claimed that the news report cited officials with the Mega Millions lottery. He may have misunderstood the news report, or he may just have been full of crap.

[BackInTex]

While buying my tickets, a guy in line said that news reports indicated that all possible combinations have already been sold.

When you let the machine select the numbers randomly for your ticket, is there some means by which it will only select a combination not already picked (doesn't seem likely)? And a $640 million prize translates to maybe 1.3 billion tickets sold? (it's $1 a ticket, right, and ~50% goes to payout?). Because otherwise, it's still extremely unlikely that all 175 million combinations would have been sold in 1.3 billion tickets

For a given combination, the chance that it would not be selected in 1.3 billion tickets generated randomly is
(1 - 1/175,000,000)^1,300,000,000 = 0.00059, so there's a 0.059% chance any given combination will not have been selected (and a 99.941% chance it will have been). Taking all the combinations together, there would then be a 0.99941^175,000,000 = < 1 in 10^100 chance that all of them will have been selected.

The pot is progressive so assuming only 50% goes to the pool (and probably less to the jackpot peice), the current pool grew from 360 (Tuesday) to 640 (tonight). That is 280 million, meaning 560 million playing for tonight, not 1.3 billion.

[christie1111]

I'm not vouching for the guy's credibility. He claimed he heard it on the news. He claimed that the news report cited officials with the Mega Millions lottery. He may have misunderstood the news report, or he may just have been full of crap.

I think the officials at the Lottery would not say that. For one thing, they wouldn't want to slow sales of tickets.

[BackInTex]

I'm not vouching for the guy's credibility. He claimed he heard it on the news. He claimed that the news report cited officials with the Mega Millions lottery. He may have misunderstood the news report, or he may just have been full of crap.

I doubt the MegaMillions folks are allowed to view slected combinations until the drawing. At least I would hope so.

[minimetoo26]

If you live in Nevada, it's better to go to California than Arizona since AZ taxes non-residents 6% and CA has no tax on prizes.

I read a news blurb yesterday that said that California was hoping to have the winner as they'd get $100 million in taxes.

This is my source: http://www.usamega.com/mega-millions-jackpot.asp

This kind of stuff is my hobby--I do stupid things analytically.

[MarleysGh0st]

I'm not vouching for the guy's credibility. He claimed he heard it on the news. He claimed that the news report cited officials with the Mega Millions lottery. He may have misunderstood the news report, or he may just have been full of crap.

I heard the same TV report. I don't think they meant that they had verified with absolute certainty that every combination had been picked, just that, with so many tickets sold, it was probable that they all had.

I don't know how accurate that probability estimate is. For folks who chose their own numbers instead of using the random quick picks, I think many rely on birthdays and other "lucky" numbers, so combinations with 1-31 are most likely being sold far more frequently than combinations with the higher numbers.

[smilergrogan]

I'm not vouching for the guy's credibility. He claimed he heard it on the news. He claimed that the news report cited officials with the Mega Millions lottery. He may have misunderstood the news report, or he may just have been full of crap.

I heard the same TV report. I don't think they meant that they had verified with absolute certainty that every combination had been picked, just that, with so many tickets sold, it was probable that they all had.

I don't know how accurate that probability estimate is. For folks who chose their own numbers instead of using the random quick picks, I think many rely on birthdays and other "lucky" numbers, so combinations with 1-31 are most likely being sold far more frequently than combinations with the higher numbers.

The report's not very accurate, since the probability is much less than 1 in (the number of atoms in the known universe). And that assumes all combinations are equally likely to be chosen - it's smaller if some combinations are less likely.

[Bob78164]

If you live in Nevada, it's better to go to California than Arizona since AZ taxes non-residents 6% and CA has no tax on prizes.

I read a news blurb yesterday that said that California was hoping to have the winner as they'd get $100 million in taxes.

The news blurb was incorrect. California does not subject lottery winnings to the state income tax. And even if it did, the top marginal tax rate is 9.2%. --Bob

[CarShark]

Notwithstanding my extreme skepticism about the claim by the guy you heard in line, I would agree that there is a pretty strong chance of having multiple winners tonight.

I'm also pretty skeptical, as no source I could find has agreed with his assertion. What I did find was that if no one wins tonight, the jackpot will grow to near-as-makes-no-difference a billion dollars!

[Bob Juch]

Americans bet nearly $1.5B to win record jackpot

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... 5ac8868e88

[Bob Juch]

I'm not vouching for the guy's credibility. He claimed he heard it on the news. He claimed that the news report cited officials with the Mega Millions lottery. He may have misunderstood the news report, or he may just have been full of crap.

I heard the same TV report. I don't think they meant that they had verified with absolute certainty that every combination had been picked, just that, with so many tickets sold, it was probable that they all had.

I don't know how accurate that probability estimate is. For folks who chose their own numbers instead of using the random quick picks, I think many rely on birthdays and other "lucky" numbers, so combinations with 1-31 are most likely being sold far more frequently than combinations with the higher numbers.

Mega Millions: 95% chance someone wins jackpot, official says

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2 ... ckpot.html

[MarleysGh0st]

I'm also pretty skeptical, as no source I could find has agreed with his assertion. What I did find was that if no one wins tonight, the jackpot will grow to near-as-makes-no-difference a billion dollars!

I'll buy a ticket when they start copying McDonald's line; billions and billions.



I did have two tickets for Tuesday's drawing, but I didn't match a single number. I haven't gone by a store selling tickets since then and haven't gone out of my way for one.