Odds Against U.S. in World Cup

[SpacemanSpiff]

HALFTIME REPORT

The US looked very, very, very weary in the first 10 minutes. Not sure if that was fatigue, or the conditions, or what. But Germany was attacking the entire time.

Tim Howard in goal was as good as always.

After that, the US started having some decent counterattacks, and the game's been pretty even since then.

At the half, it's 0-0. But nobody can say that the teams are trying to play for a draw.

Better yet, Portugal is ahead of Ghana by 1-0 at the half. If that holds up, we're still in unless we lose by five goals somehow.

[earendel]

On the morning of the big match, a couple of unpleasant things.

One, something I heard on NPR this morning. Of the four teams that played in Manaus previously, all four lost their next game.

(In case you've forgotten, Manaus is the steampit that US and Portugal played at on Sunday; one played said it was like playing in Dallas at 4pm in the middle of August. It also set history when there was the first official FIFA-sanctioned water break in the game.)

By that reckoning, both US and Portugal would lose, and that's very bad for the US (unless the losses are both by one goal).

Secondly, Ghana has suspended two players from their team and sent them home (although, upon further review, one wouldn't have played anyway because of two yellow cards). Further, there's the whole row about the Ghanaians boycotting the last game over money, and the national federation showing up with a bucketload of cash for the players yesterday.

http://www.theguardian.com/football/201 ... -suspended

It's going to be an interesting pair of games in a few hours time.

[EDIT 10:00am ET: CNN reports heavy rains in Recife, where the Germany-US match is scheduled. Extensive flooding is reported, and stadium access is difficult. But, as they say, the show must go on.]

[EDIT 1:39pm ET: Germany over USA 1 - 0.

[silverscreenselect]

[EDIT 1:39pm ET: Germany over USA 1 - 0.

The US qualifies over Portugal on goal differential and plays Tuesday against the winner of Group H, probably Belgium.

[SpacemanSpiff]

USA HAS ADVANCED!!!!
US loses to Germany 0-1. But Portugal beat Ghana 2-1, and the US gets second place over the Portuguese on goal difference (3).

Much tension for awhile when Ghana tied it at 1-1. Although that would have been ideal (making the US-German score moot), had Ghana scored again to win, then Ghana would have taken the second slot and the US gone home.

Once Portugal scored again (off a bad piece of goalkeeping by Ghana), it was smooth sailing after that.

Five days off til the next game.

[macrae1234]

had Ghana scored again to win, then Ghana would have taken the second slot and the US gone home.

Not true in the following scenarion US advanced not that it matters


If the United States loses and Ghana wins, things could get dicey. A one-goal U.S. loss combined with a one-goal Ghana win would send the Americans through, because of their head-to-head win over Ghana. But if the United States loses (by any margin) and Ghana wins by two or more goals, Ghana will advance.

[Bob78164]

had Ghana scored again to win, then Ghana would have taken the second slot and the US gone home.

Not true in the following scenarion US advanced not that it matters


If the United States loses and Ghana wins, things could get dicey. A one-goal U.S. loss combined with a one-goal Ghana win would send the Americans through, because of their head-to-head win over Ghana. But if the United States loses (by any margin) and Ghana wins by two or more goals, Ghana will advance.

That wasn't accurate. If Ghana had beaten Portugal 2-1 while the US lost 1-0, Ghana would have advanced by virtue of having scored more goals. Goals scored is the second tiebreak; head-to-head competition is the third. --Bob

[littlebeast13]

That wasn't accurate. If Ghana had beaten Portugal 2-1 while the US lost 1-0, Ghana would have advanced by virtue of having scored more goals. Goals scored is the second tiebreak; head-to-head competition is the third. --Bob

That is really messed up. How can H2H record ever be less important than scoring differential in ANY sport? What the hell is wrong with the soccer world?

lb13

[kayrharris]

Apparently you need a college course in Soccer 101 to understand it. USA just lost, but they won?
Makes a lot of sense!

kay

[silverscreenselect]

What the hell is wrong with the soccer world?

lb13

It's a sport that's run by a bunch of guys who have been hit in the head with soccer balls thousands of times in their lives.

[silverscreenselect]

OTOH, Luis Suarez of Uruguay needs a muzzle. Or at least a visit from Yukon Cornelius and Hermie.

FIFA handed out a four month suspension to Suarez who is out for the rest of the World Cup (Uruguay qualified for the round of 16) and his professional team matches for that period.

[macrae1234]

So beating GHA kind of felt like a draw, the draw against POR felt like a loss and today's loss to GER feels like a win. Confusing isn't it. Got to love the World Cup

[elwoodblues]

The US will play Belgium on Tuesday afternoon. Americans celebrate getting another day to slack off at work.

[Vandal]

After a really dull first half, I watched most of the second half and "extra time."

It was a tough loss and now I can pretty much ignore soccer/football for another four years.

PS I thought Lindsey Buckingham played a great game for Belgium:

Spoiler

[silverscreenselect]

After a really dull first half, I watched most of the second half and "extra time."

I understand the U.S. was short handed, but they played about 80 minutes of the Ghana game, the entire German game, and the first 105 minutes of the Belgium game in a shell. That's a recipe to lose games 1-0. When they got aggressive in the second overtime against Belgium they nearly pulled the game out.

And they were aggressive in their matches leading up to the World Cup (I know the competition wasn't as strong against Panama and Honduras, but they also went up against Mexico and Costa Rica plus international matches).

I don't see how they could have done worse with Landon Donovan.

[Bob78164]

I guess those odds are pretty high right now. --Bob

[SpacemanSpiff]

I guess those odds are pretty high right now. --Bob

Hey, the subject doesn't ask which FIFA World Cup. I will be surprised if we get to the finals in my lifetime, though.

To be honest, we did as well as could expected (especially given the travel schedule and the group we were in). And I'll agree, we seemed to be playing too defensive in some of these games. But that's part of coaching -- adapting to the opposition, and knowing what you have on your roster.

What I was very glad to see what the viewing parties for the USA games and, even better, how many US fans actually travelled to Brazil for the games. From what I heard, they were the largest foreign contingent there, and definitely could be heard from the stands. (Compare and contrast to 30 years ago, when USA home games were just as bad as road games, where the US fans were outnumbered by expats 10-1).

Then again, next time out is Russia. We'll see if the fandom continues when the games are at 7am ET. And I'm not sure even the most diehard fans of Sam's Army want to travel there.

[silverscreenselect]

An interesting result of the first round knockouts. The pairings matched the winner of one group against the runnerup in another group. In all eight matches, the group winner beat the runner-up from the other group.

Five matches went into overtime. Two matches wound up in shootouts.

[silverscreenselect]

I don't think Brazil is the favorite right now.

5-0 Germany still in the first half; the most goals by any team in the first half of a World Cup match since 1974.

[SpacemanSpiff]

The ESPN announcer was saying early on that the Brazilian defenders were marking like a rec-league team (can't remember his exact term, but that was the point). About two minutes later, the barrage started.

Somehow, it makes a 2-1 loss look pretty good.

[elwoodblues]

The Brazilians are getting waxed.

[littlebeast13]

The Brazilians are getting waxed.

Aerodynamic players are faster....

lb13

[Vandal]

[elwoodblues]

It will be Germany vs. Argentina in the finals. I wonder if Pope Francis and Pope Benedict have a bet on it. Maybe the loser will have to walk around the Vatican wearing the other country's jersey or something like that.

[Vandal]

[silverscreenselect]

Under the category of completely unsurprising news, Brazil will not renew the contract of its head coach Luiz Felipe Scolari, which expired at the end of the World Cup.

http://www.espnfc.us/fifa-world-cup/sto ... ri-resigns

The losses to Germany and the Netherlands marked the first time since 1940 that Brazil lost consecutive home games in any international competition.