It'll be over tomorrow

[hf_jai]

The AP is now reporting that Clinton will announce tonight that Obama has enough delegates to clinch the nomination but will stop short of formally ending her candidacy. She will continue to speak out about issues but her staff will be laid off effective June 15.

The Clinton campaign has officially announced that AP is wrong (both McAlliffe and Ickes on MSNBC saying so).

We'll find out tonite. This may be just another Obama campaign ploy to suppress the vote in today's two primaries.

I think Hillary's biggest problems have been her shrillness (literally-- when she tries to get the crowd revved up, her voice does not really get louder or more forceful, it gets shrill, which unfortunately reinforces some perceptions of her) and the bumblebee outfit (the yellow suit that she uses sometimes). If she could have dumped both of those items (and maybe Bill...) she'd probably have sewed it up long ago.

And I think that's a pretty sexist appraisal of Hillary as a campaigner.

Of course, I'm sure you're right that sexism causes a lot of voters to reject Hillary. Just as racism causes a lot of voters to reject Barack. The difference is, most Democrats roundly condemn racism against Barack, but LOTS of Dems are just as sexist as the worst Republican.

[peacock2121]

Okay - I'm with the program.

Obama has got to start saying the word draft.

He has got to.

[silverscreenselect]

1) ARG, the outfit that has Hillary up 26% in South Dakota, has a notably poor track record this primary season.

2) I don't expect Hillary to concede but she may suspend her campaign as Edwards did after Florida. Suspending the campaign does not release pledged delegates and technically could allow her to resume it.

3) Regardless of what she does, I expect Obama to claim victory in the next day or two and get a number of superdelegate endorsements (how many remains to be seen), which would put him over the "magic number." I also expect media and party leaders to talk about how it's time to move on to the general election. It's an open question whether John McCain will give Obama the obligatory congratulatory call or not.

4) The big question then becomes when the Michelle Obama tape is going to be released. My gut feel is that it's going to happen this week, after the Democrats and the press carry on about how wonderful Obama is. Psychologically, the effect of releasing it now will be to make everyone in the Democratic party look like complete idiots and to completely derail any sort of "bounce" Obama might otherwise get out of the nomination.

With the Democratic convention being the week before Labor Day and the Republicans one week later and the Republican "brand" in such disrepute nationwide, I don't think the Republicans will wait for this to be an October surprise, but will go for the jugular now.

5) I am also convinced that that the tape exists and that it is as bad as everyone says it is. I am also convinced it's not the only additional damaging information about Obama out there, just the one that's been semi-leaked.

[Weyoun]

1) ARG, the outfit that has Hillary up 26% in South Dakota, has a notably poor track record this primary season.

2) I don't expect Hillary to concede but she may suspend her campaign as Edwards did after Florida. Suspending the campaign does not release pledged delegates and technically could allow her to resume it.

3) Regardless of what she does, I expect Obama to claim victory in the next day or two and get a number of superdelegate endorsements (how many remains to be seen), which would put him over the "magic number." I also expect media and party leaders to talk about how it's time to move on to the general election. It's an open question whether John McCain will give Obama the obligatory congratulatory call or not.

4) The big question then becomes when the Michelle Obama tape is going to be released. My gut feel is that it's going to happen this week, after the Democrats and the press carry on about how wonderful Obama is. Psychologically, the effect of releasing it now will be to make everyone in the Democratic party look like complete idiots and to completely derail any sort of "bounce" Obama might otherwise get out of the nomination.

With the Democratic convention being the week before Labor Day and the Republicans one week later and the Republican "brand" in such disrepute nationwide, I don't think the Republicans will wait for this to be an October surprise, but will go for the jugular now.

5) I am also convinced that that the tape exists and that it is as bad as everyone says it is. I am also convinced it's not the only additional damaging information about Obama out there, just the one that's been semi-leaked.

I have heard stories about this tape, too, but if I were a Lee Atwater, I'd wait to release it. Release it too soon, and the shock will wear off in favor of the "but it's his wife, not him" argument.

I'm on the fence abut this kinds of things. It's Obama, not his wife, who is running. But she's obviously a big influence on his life, and a reflection on his judgment.

One thing is clear about Hillary: she has high negatives, but they also can't get any higher. I think that's what many Dems are missing: she's taken her hits for well over a decade. At this point, there's nothing on her that can be released, or any arguments made that haven't been made many times before.

[Bob Juch]

Official announcement is that she's not going to concede. Doesn't say she won't lay-off all of her staff though.

[themanintheseersuckersuit]

5) I am also convinced that that the tape exists and that it is as bad as everyone says it is. I am also convinced it's not the only additional damaging information about Obama out there, just the one that's been semi-leaked.

This is what's being linked on some Right Wing sites as the Larry Johnson video of Michelle O.

[earendel]

The AP is now reporting that Clinton will announce tonight that Obama has enough delegates to clinch the nomination but will stop short of formally ending her candidacy. She will continue to speak out about issues but her staff will be laid off effective June 15.

The Clinton campaign has officially announced that AP is wrong (both McAlliffe and Ickes on MSNBC saying so).

We'll find out tonite. This may be just another Obama campaign ploy to suppress the vote in today's two primaries.

Possibly, or else the denials are attempts to keep Clinton's supporters from staying home because they think it's all over.

[silverscreenselect]

I have heard stories about this tape, too, but if I were a Lee Atwater, I'd wait to release it. Release it too soon, and the shock will wear off in favor of the "but it's his wife, not him" argument.

I'm on the fence abut this kinds of things. It's Obama, not his wife, who is running. But she's obviously a big influence on his life, and a reflection on his judgment.

One thing is clear about Hillary: she has high negatives, but they also can't get any higher. I think that's what many Dems are missing: she's taken her hits for well over a decade. At this point, there's nothing on her that can be released, or any arguments made that haven't been made many times before.

Obama or not, the Republicans are facing big problems in the House and Senate elections, with a lot of Republicans even thinking they can lose five or more Senate seats and 15 or more additional house seats. Their attempts to tie Obama to local Democratic candidates failed miserably in the recent LA and MS special elections and if Rev. Wright wasn't an effective weapon in Republican districts in those two states then they are in trouble.

Release the tape in October and Obama may look bad but a lot of other Democrats can legitimately say, that's not us, it's him and we had no idea. Release it now and no matter what the Democrats do or say, they will all look like a bunch of complete idiots. If the Republicans want to tarnish the Democratic label, this is the time to get maximum damage.

[TheCalvinator24]

Scalia-style activist judges legislating from the bench

This made me laugh out loud.

Seriously.

[mellytu74]

Can it be just possible -- as many sites suggest (just google Obama and whitey) -- that she's saying

"WHY"D HE...?" when disucssing GWB?

As in "Why'd he cut programs for the poor?"

Not "Whitey cut programs for the poor!"

Why did he? Why'd he? Whitey?

[silverscreenselect]

Can it be just possible -- as many sites suggest (just google Obama and whitey) -- that she's saying

"WHY"D HE...?" when disucssing GWB?

It's interesting that for a tape that "doesn't exist," a lot of pro-Obama blogs seem to have gotten the same transcript. Even those have her using the term "white man" before and after the why'd he/whitey phrasing.

And of course that doesn't explain why she's at a white bashing panel at the Trinity Church sitting next to Louis Farrakhan.

Larry Johnson, who originated the story that the tape existed is a former Republican CIA agent and paid terrorism consultant who has turned against the Bush administration and was very vehement about Bushco's actions in the Plame/Wilson scandal. He is very pro-Clinton and considers Obama to be completely unqualified to be President. However, he is not the typical pol sci/literature major political junkie wonk who run most of the left and right wing political blogs. He has twenty years of experience in the intelligence community and close ties within both the Democratic and Republican party. He's not the sort to post wild rumors or to be taken for a ride. People pay him lots of money for advice about terrorist threats.

He has been pushing the story, which has now gotten mainstream media attention (stories in the Wall Street Journal and Fox News) because he wants this out now and not later. It also explains to some extent why Hillary has not dropped out and why Obama went off on a tangent last week about Michele not being a fair target in the election campaign.

If Larry Johnson says he has it on (now) five sources, both in the Democratic and Republican parties, that the tape exists and how damaging it is, I'd believe him rather than a bunch of geeks who are being spoonfed the exact same script from the Obama campaign.

[mellytu74]

sss --

I just heard of the tape's existence - or not - in this thread.

I googled it.

I found it interesting.

I wrote what I read.

I saw the guy's name and found it extraordinarily strange that a former New York Knick player would be involved in this.

That's how little the name Larry Johnson meant to me.

So spare me the spoon-fed geek nonsense.

But, thank you ever so much for reminding me why I promised myself I would stay out of the political threads.

[silverscreenselect]

So spare me the spoon-fed geek nonsense.

But, thank you ever so much for reminding me why I promised myself I would stay out of the political threads.

My comments were directed at the pro-Obama sites which are the source of the "explanations" you alluded to. I did not mean to imply you were one of them. I apologize if I offended you.

This whole discussion of a tape that may or may not exist is rather esoteric, but is one more example of to what extent this election has gone to.

My mentioning of Larry Johnson was intended to indicate the degree of esteem in which I hold him as opposed to a lot of the other political sites, left and right wing, out there, who engage in the wildest flights of fantasy at the drop of a hat. If a typical right wing blog had mentioned this tape, I wouldn't have thought anything of it.

My mentioning of the pro-Obama blogs which attempted to "explain" the tape, which they claim doesn't even exist, but, if it exists, really means "why'd he" is just one more example of how the Obama campaign periodically feeds its talking points to "friendly" blogs so that they can gain maximum exposure. This isn't the first time that they all seem to get the same talking points at the same time on an issue.

Obviously, if and when the tape surfaces, people will have to judge what she says and in what context and whether the words are capable of any other explanation or not.

[hf_jai]

I saw the guy's name and found it extraordinarily strange that a former New York Knick player would be involved in this.

That's how little the name Larry Johnson meant to me.

So spare me the spoon-fed geek nonsense.

I'm surprised you've forgotten Larry Johnson. He was a rather hot topic of discussion here (or rather, the here before here) back in 2003, when he spoke out against the Bush administration's portrayal of the intelligence leading up to the Iraq War. In fact, it was Johnson's speaking out that first led me to realize that WMD were never gonna be found in Iraq.

Johnson started his No Quarter blog to defend Valerie Plame and the treatment she was getting from the Bush White House.

He used to be quite the (somewhat reluctant) left-wing hero, until he had the audacity to announce he supports Hillary Clinton for president. Hardly the stuff of "spoon-fed geek nonsense."

Oh, and for the record, it's not Johnson's tape. He first reported about it a couple weeks ago, based on info he got from some Republican friend. I noticed when I first got back to the bored that SSS had mentioned it in a different thread. At the time, someone claimed it must have come from the Clinton campaign, but that's doesn't appear to be so.

[mellytu74]

jai --

I'll be honest, I don't remember the previous discussions from the here before here.

Or in previous threads here. I'd been trying to stay away from politics so maybe I just glanced and forgot.

Why I forgot, I don't know, because the outing of Valerie Plame had me very angry.

As I said, I'd never heard of the tape before this thread. I realized it wasn't Johnson's tape as I read things. When I saw the name, WMD and Valerie Plame weren't the first things I thought of.

I guess if I had

I have no quarrel with anyone who was/is a Clinton supporter. If she had been the nominee, she would have gotten a lawn sign and money from us.

What concerns me as a woman of a certain age is how women who supported Clinton and are angry that she is not the nominee can talk about voting for a man who called his wife a c*** in public AND voted against the Pay Equity Act.

Where is the respect for any woman in that?


OOOOH -- I correct myself. I forgot that McCain didn't go back to DC for the vote on the Pay Equity Act. He was fund-raising somewhere.

[Bob78164]

It's over. CNN has projected that the pledged delegates Obama will receive from South Dakota, combined with the announced superdelegate endorsements (and those received from former Edwards delegates) have pushed him over the top. --Bob

[sunflower]

It's truly unfortunate that I will have to vote Republican now, or not at all.

Ralph Nader is actually looking pretty good right now, he might be able to get a more significant piece of the vote this time!

Where is Al Gore when you need him??? Sigh...

[PlacentiaSoccerMom]

I am sad that Hillary will not receive the nomination. I also think that the media has been having wet-dreams over the idea of an Obama presidency, so they have practically coronated him.

I still have my lawn sign for Hillary out. If Hillary concedes the race, I am going to change it to say "Sylvia for President' and put it on my friend Sylvia's front lawn.

[sunflower]

Maybe I'm wrong, and if so, you can all mock me in November...but I think the party is making a huge mistake and that Obama is not going to win. Even Oprah can't help him now...

[PlacentiaSoccerMom]

Maybe I'm wrong, and if so, you can all mock me in November...but I think the party is making a huge mistake and that Obama is not going to win. Even Oprah can't help him now...

I agree, but I wonder if I agree because I am bitter.

I am sure that the Republicans have some dirt on him.

[sunflower]

Maybe I'm wrong, and if so, you can all mock me in November...but I think the party is making a huge mistake and that Obama is not going to win. Even Oprah can't help him now...

I agree, but I wonder if I agree because I am bitter.

I am sure that the Republicans have some dirt on him.

I bet you are right. Even if they don't, who needs dirt when you can just say plain and simple the guy lacks any practical experience, especially with international matters. And they'd be right to say that. It should be an interesting 5 months...

[Bob Juch]

Maybe I'm wrong, and if so, you can all mock me in November...but I think the party is making a huge mistake and that Obama is not going to win. Even Oprah can't help him now...

I agree, but I wonder if I agree because I am bitter.

I am sure that the Republicans have some dirt on him.

And you think they don't have more on Hillary?

[sunflower]

Maybe I'm wrong, and if so, you can all mock me in November...but I think the party is making a huge mistake and that Obama is not going to win. Even Oprah can't help him now...

I agree, but I wonder if I agree because I am bitter.

I am sure that the Republicans have some dirt on him.

And you think they don't have more on Hillary?

But we already know her dirt! It's all out there! It's almost endearing at this point

[PlacentiaSoccerMom]

I agree, but I wonder if I agree because I am bitter.

I am sure that the Republicans have some dirt on him.

And you think they don't have more on Hillary?

But we already know her dirt! It's all out there! It's almost endearing at this point

I agree Hillary's dirt is all out there.

[Bob Juch]

And you think they don't have more on Hillary?

But we already know her dirt! It's all out there! It's almost endearing at this point

I agree Hillary's dirt is all out there.

So you rather vote for a known crook rather than a suspected one?