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thguy65
- Posts: 995
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#26
Post
by thguy65 » Tue Aug 16, 2016 4:31 pm
Bob Juch wrote:Bob78164 wrote:And of course, it's the same Nate Silver who went 49 for 50 in the 2008 general (missing Indiana, which Obama won on the strength of a superior ground game) and 50 for 50 in the 2012 general. Which is nice, since we're now talking about the general. --Bob
He's now saying Clinton will with 86.4% of the vote.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... id=rrpromo
The FiveThirtyEight graph indicates there is an 86.4% chance that Clinton will be the winner, not that she will get 86.4% of the vote.
The prediction on the popular vote is:
Clinton 48.9%
Trump 41.1%
Johnson 8.7%
- Tim H.
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Bob Juch
- Posts: 27132
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- Location: Oro Valley, Arizona
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#27
Post
by Bob Juch » Tue Aug 16, 2016 4:38 pm
thguy65 wrote:Bob Juch wrote:Bob78164 wrote:And of course, it's the same Nate Silver who went 49 for 50 in the 2008 general (missing Indiana, which Obama won on the strength of a superior ground game) and 50 for 50 in the 2012 general. Which is nice, since we're now talking about the general. --Bob
He's now saying Clinton will with 86.4% of the vote.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... id=rrpromo
The FiveThirtyEight graph indicates there is an 86.4% chance that Clinton will be the winner, not that she will get 86.4% of the vote.
The prediction on the popular vote is:
Clinton 48.9%
Trump 41.1%
Johnson 8.7%
- Tim H.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)
Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.
Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.
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Bob78164
- Bored Moderator
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- Location: By the phone
#28
Post
by Bob78164 » Tue Aug 16, 2016 5:26 pm
Bob Juch wrote:Bob78164 wrote:And of course, it's the same Nate Silver who went 49 for 50 in the 2008 general (missing Indiana, which Obama won on the strength of a superior ground game) and 50 for 50 in the 2012 general. Which is nice, since we're now talking about the general. --Bob
He's now saying Clinton will with 86.4% of the vote.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... id=rrpromo
Wrong. He's saying (in his polls-only model) that Secretary Clinton has an 86.4% chance to win the election. He has her lead at about 8 points. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson
