Toastification is imminent

[Bob78164]

We are one Washington Nationals loss away from the first team this season to be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Of course, if the Nationals hadn't beaten up on the Dodgers, they'd already be toast. --Bob

[Bob78164]

By the way, figuring this out was kind of cool (at least for those of a certain bent frame of mind). The Nationals have lost 85 games and with their next loss will reach 86 losses, which will cap their potential wins at 76. Thus, their next loss will mean they can't catch Milwaukee or Chicago, who already have at least 77 wins, so that will eliminate them from the Wild Card race.

But couldn't they still win the National League East? After all, the first-place Mets have only 74 wins. The answer is no. Although the Nationals would be able to pass any of the teams ahead of them, there's no way to pass, or even catch, all of the teams ahead of them.

The Mets have 74 wins, the Phillies have 73 wins, and the Marlins have 68 wins. So the three of them combined have 215 wins. But the Marlins have 6 remaining games against the Mets and 6 more games against the Phillies. Also, the Mets and the Phillies have 3 more games against each other. So that's another 15 wins that will be credited to one of these three teams. That means the three teams together will have at least 230 wins. Dividing by three, they must average 76.6667 wins, and since each must have an integer number of wins, at least one of them must reach 77 wins.

I'm not sure why, but this sort of analysis tickles my fancy. So I thought I'd share. --Bob

[christie1111]

By the way, figuring this out was kind of cool (at least for those of a certain bent frame of mind). The Nationals have lost 85 games and with their next loss will reach 86 losses, which will cap their potential wins at 76. Thus, their next loss will mean they can't catch Milwaukee or Chicago, who already have at least 77 wins, so that will eliminate them from the Wild Card race.

But couldn't they still win the National League East? After all, the first-place Mets have only 74 wins. The answer is no. Although the Nationals would be able to pass any of the teams ahead of them, there's no way to pass, or even catch, all of the teams ahead of them.

The Mets have 74 wins, the Philthies have 73 wins, and the Marlins have 68 wins. So the three of them combined have 215 wins. But the Marlins have 6 remaining games against the Mets and 6 more games against the Philthies. Also, the Mets and the Philthies have 3 more games against each other. So that's another 15 wins that will be credited to one of these three teams. That means the three teams together will have at least 230 wins. Dividing by three, they must average 76.6667 wins, and since each must have an integer number of wins, at least one of them must reach 77 wins.

I'm not sure why, but this sort of analysis tickles my fancy. So I thought I'd share. --Bob

Bob, could I ask a favor? I don't think you mean it, because you can't possibly know, but the Philthly thing is really bothering me.

My Uncle Bob is a huge Philadelphia fan and he is currently in the hospital with a significant struggle. I don't care whether you like them or not, but could you knock off the slur part.

Thank you very much.

christie - who really doesn't ask for a lot

Really

[admanvii]

But couldn't they still win the National League East? After all, the first-place Mets have only 74 wins.
The Mets have 74 wins, the Philthies have 73 wins, and the Marlins have 68 wins.


Make it 75 wins after tonight and young lady my condolences for your Uncle I truely hope he does get better...Its got to be horrible rooting for the fillies in his time of recovery

Lets Go Mets

[Bob78164]

But couldn't they still win the National League East? After all, the first-place Mets have only 74 wins.
The Mets have 74 wins, the Philthies have 73 wins, and the Marlins have 68 wins.

Not if they lose another game. The Mets, Phillies, and Marlins have so many games between themselves that at least one of them is certain to reach 77 wins.

The Mets' victory over the Marlins tonight doesn't change the analysis. --Bob

[Bob78164]

Bob, could I ask a favor? I don't think you mean it, because you can't possibly know, but the Philthly thing is really bothering me.

My Uncle Bob is a huge Philadelphia fan and he is currently in the hospital with a significant struggle. I don't care whether you like them or not, but could you knock off the slur part.

Under these circumstances, of course I'll respect this request.

Please understand, though, that I come by my distaste for Philadelphia and its sports teams honestly. We moved to the Philadelphia suburbs when I was seven. By then, Super Bowl III, the Miracle Mets, and the World Champion Knicks had made me a New York sports fan for life. Rooting for New York's sports teams consigned me to the fate of a perpetual outsider. I hated it there with a loathing that defies description.

So after the crisis passes and life returns to normal, I'd appreciate your letting me know so I can return to my regularly scheduled disdain. --Bob

[etaoin22]

The Washington Nationals are not eliminated. They are just renamed the New York Mets.

Imagine Luis Ayala as a closer.

Someone was saying Minaya wants to trade for Carl Pavano as well, but with his victory over the Jays, Pavano is now costing less than 2 million dollars a win, and is probably third up in the rotation....

NB

(1) Nationals crushing of Dodgers means they will finish better than 52-110, almost certainly and will beat 1969 and 1976.
(2) Blue Jays loss in Burnett vs Dice-K start last Sunday, both starters giving up 5 runs and the game being decided in the pen started a fizzle. Management has now more or less officially pulled the plug on the season. Stairs is gone.