Hurricane

[Beebs52]

Has anyone kept in touch with Peababe? Is she in the path?

[BackInTex]

She’s on the southeast side of Tampa Bay. Other than flooding due to storm surge, she should be ok.

[Beebs52]

Prayers for the Pea.

[BackInTex]

I reached out to her in EFB. Asked if she was evacuating or hunkering down.

BiT! Good to hear from you. I am hunkering down. I live in a Zone E. I have a pretty great support system and am ready to ride it out Thank you for thinking of me

I don’t think I’d hunker down where she is, not this storm.

[Beebs52]

Yeesh

[tlynn78]

Prayers for all the Boredbuddies in the path (and everyone else)

[silverscreenselect]

I went to high school in Sarasota, and one summer we had a rental home two blocks from the beach on Siesta Key. That part of Florida has a series of barrier islands between the mainland and the open water, and Siesta Key is the largest near Sarasota. It was about a three-mile drive from the bridge to the beach. Back then, there weren't any hotels, high-rise condos, or fancy shops (that was on Lido Key to the north), just modest single-family homes. I doubt that house is still there (the land was too valuable), but if it were, we'd have been right in the path of the storm.

By the way, most of the government buildings and downtown shopping area of Sarasota are within a half-dozen blocks of Sarasota Bay, which will also experience a big storm surge. It won't be pretty there tomorrow.

[BackInTex]

Pea checked in on EFB this morning. She is fine. No power or cell service at her house. Only minor damage.

Other information obtained today:

Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 storm, packing winds of about 120 mph, around 8:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 9 in Sarasota County, Fla., then crossed the state overnight and exited into the Atlantic at around 4 a.m. ET on Oct. 10 as a Category 1 storm with 85-mph winds.
In Milton's wake, power and natural gas demand is expected to plunge, with similarly sharp cuts in power and gas prices.
Nearly 3 million customers were without power around 5:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 10, according to PowerOutage.us, with Florida Power & Light Co. (FPL) and Duke Energy Florida LLC each reporting just under 1 million customers offline. Tampa Electric Co. had about 580,000 outages.
AccuWeather issued a preliminary estimate that Milton caused total damage and economic losses between $160 billion and $180 billion, "one of the most damaging and impactful storms in Florida history."
"A $225 billion-$250 billion loss from Helene and another $160 billion-$180 billion from Hurricane Milton is close to a combined over $400 billion," said AccuWeather Founder and Executive Chairman Joel Myers. "The GDP of the United States is $26 trillion, so this combined loss is nearly 2%, mainly focused in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2025. That may wipe out all expected growth in the economy over that period."
About 700,000 restored by FPL
Around 2 p.m. ET on Oct. 10, FPL President and CEO Armando Pimentel Jr. conducted an on-site update at Wellington, Fla., where a tornado wrought havoc Oct. 9. He noted that the storm initially cut service to about 1.8 million FPL customers.
"I want to assure all of our customers that our crews are out doing their jobs," Pimentel said. "We were out all last night restoring power between bands, and I can tell you this morning that as a result of all of the investment that we have put into our infrastructure, from hardening the poles to putting lines underground to putting technology in our integrated grid, we have already been able to restore close to 700,000 of our customers."
About 17,000 workers from 41 states are "on the job," Pimentel said, praising their hard work as they plan to "remain on the job 24 hours a day, seven days a week."
"We couldn’t have done it without you," Pimentel said. "After Hurricane Helene just a couple of weeks ago, as we cleaned up our area here, we were fortunate enough at the end of that to be able to send some of our crews from FPL to some of the hardest-hit areas in the Southeast."

'Devastating intensity'
Duke Energy Florida said Oct. 10, "As customers can safely return home, the company expects outage numbers to continue to increase." The company said it is assessing damage as weather and road conditions allow, and "will soon begin what is anticipated to be a lengthy restoration process."
"Hurricane Milton barreled through our state with a devastating intensity, leaving behind a trail of destruction that we, and many Floridians, can't yet fully comprehend," said Todd Fountain, Duke Energy Florida storm director. "Our crews will continue to assess the damage to our infrastructure and equipment, which is a critical first step in the overall power restoration process. As with any storm of this magnitude, we encourage our customers to prepare for extended outages, and we thank them for their patience."
Energy market impacts
The US Energy Information Administration reported that Florida load is forecast to peak at less than 29.5 GW on Oct. 10, down 16.7 GW from an actual peak of 46.1 GW on Oct. 3, the same day a week ago.
Platts assessed Florida day-ahead on-peak power at $33.25/MWh for Oct. 10 delivery, down $13.50 from Oct. 3's $46.75/MWh and down 33.3% from the average for that date over the past five years. Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. No Florida bilateral trade was seen on the Intercontinental Exchange the morning of Oct. 10.
Commodity Insights estimates that Southeast natural gas power burn will barely top 4.9 Bcf on Oct. 10, compared with 8.2 Bcf on Oct. 3.
Platts assessed Florida Gas Zone 3 at $2.325/MMBtu for Oct. 10 delivery, down 89 cents from Oct. 3's $3.215/MMBtu and down $1.65 from the average for that date over 2019-2023. Trading on the morning of Oct. 10 showed prices off 1.9 cents from the previous day at $2.304/MMBtu for Oct. 11 delivery, down $1.006 from Oct. 4's $3.31/MMBtu, and down $1.711 from the 2019-23 average of $4.015/MMBtu for the Oct. 11 date.
Elsewhere along the US Gulf Coast, spot gas prices were down modestly on Oct. 10 as cooler weather from the storm put a damper on regional gas demand. At the US benchmark Henry Hub, cash prices fell about 16 cents to $2.26/MMBtu. At Transco Zone 3 and Transco Zone 4, prices dropped about 5-10 cents to around $2.26, preliminary Commodity Insights settlement data showed.
Energy supply issues
On Oct. 10, natural gas production from the US Gulf of Mexico climbed by about 50 MMcf day on day to nearly 1.9 Bcf/d, as output continued to hum along largely unaffected by Hurricane Milton. With the storm tracking south and east of most US offshore production platforms, the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement opted out of issuing its usual Gulf of Mexico oil and gas activity update.
Natural gas-fired generation supplies the vast majority of Florida's power — accounting for 73.6% of generation on average for the first nine months of 2024 — and the state's central region had 26 such plants totaling more than 22 GW of capacity in Milton's path, according to EIA data.
On Oct. 10, at the typical peak output time for Florida's gas fleet, which is about 2 p.m. ET, the state's gas-fired generation was producing at a level less than 27.2 GW, compared with Oct. 3's peak of almost 35.6 GW, US EIA data showed.
The storm likely also impaired Florida's solar generation output, with dozens of utility-scale sites across the Central Florida in the path of the hurricane.
Solar power, both utility-scale and rooftop, has become a significant contributor to the state's power supply: an average of 8.9% over the first nine months of 2024.
As of about 2 p.m. ET Oct. 10, EIA data showed solar output below 1.4 GW, less than half of Oct. 3's peak solar output of 3 GW.
Eric Smith, Tulane Energy Institute associate director, said any storm-related damage would be "from the wind, not water."
"Even without hail, panels can be pulled from their support frames by 130-mph winds," Smith said late Oct. 9. "Enclosed electronic equipment, for example inverters in containers, should be OK. Natural gas-fired power plants should be able to take up the slack, just as it would do on a normal day after the sun sets. The availability of natural gas could be an issue if there is any major damage to the pipeline system or to overhead portions of the power grid.