New Hampshire

[NellyLunatic1980]

As promised, here is your NH primary discussion thread.

Essentially, the results of tomorrow's primary will depend on one thing: How many independents will turn out? About 45% of the state's registered voters are independent. The state has an open primary, so an independent can vote in whichever party's primary he or she wishes. Nearly 2-to-1 independents prefer Sen. Obama over Sen. Clinton, and about the same number prefer Sen. McCain over Gov. Romney. Kinda unusual considering that Obama's voting record is fairly liberal and McCain has gone from straight-talking moderate maverick to hard-line right-winger.

My calls:

Democratic primary--Obama will go 2-0 with an 8-point win over Hillary. Sen. Edwards will be a distant third. I'll go ahead and say this now: If Hillary doesn't win New Hampshire, it's over for her '08 run. South Carolina is the next primary. In South Carolina, roughly 30% of all citizens and half of all registered Democrats are Black. Hillary cannot go into the predominantly Black churches or neighborhoods and convince the voters to stop Obama. It wouldn't look right.

Republican primary--McCain won this state in the 2000 primary. He'll repeat tomorrow night with a 4-point win over Romney. No bounce for Iowa winner Mike Huckabee. He'll get less than 15%. Watch for Ron Paul, as I'll believe he'll have another 10% showing as he did in Iowa.

Dropouts--Duncan Hunter might finally pack it up before South Carolina.

[MarleysGh0st]

Essentially, the results of tomorrow's primary will depend on one thing: How many independents will turn out? About 45% of the state's registered voters are independent. The state has an open primary, so an independent can vote in whichever party's primary he or she wishes. Nearly 2-to-1 independents prefer Sen. Obama over Sen. Clinton, and about the same number prefer Sen. McCain over Gov. Romney. Kinda unusual considering that Obama's voting record is fairly liberal and McCain has gone from straight-talking moderate maverick to hard-line right-winger.

Interesting. Expressing preferences in a poll is one thing; being motivated to turn out for the primary is another. I think Obama will motivate far more independents to do so than any of the Republican candidates can.

[earendel]

As promised, here is your NH primary discussion thread.

Essentially, the results of tomorrow's primary will depend on one thing: How many independents will turn out? About 45% of the state's registered voters are independent. The state has an open primary, so an independent can vote in whichever party's primary he or she wishes. Nearly 2-to-1 independents prefer Sen. Obama over Sen. Clinton, and about the same number prefer Sen. McCain over Gov. Romney. Kinda unusual considering that Obama's voting record is fairly liberal and McCain has gone from straight-talking moderate maverick to hard-line right-winger.

My calls:

Democratic primary--Obama will go 2-0 with an 8-point win over Hillary. Sen. Edwards will be a distant third. I'll go ahead and say this now: If Hillary doesn't win New Hampshire, it's over for her '08 run. South Carolina is the next primary. In South Carolina, roughly 30% of all citizens and half of all registered Democrats are Black. Hillary cannot go into the predominantly Black churches or neighborhoods and convince the voters to stop Obama. It wouldn't look right.

Republican primary--McCain won this state in the 2000 primary. He'll repeat tomorrow night with a 4-point win over Romney. No bounce for Iowa winner Mike Huckabee. He'll get less than 15%. Watch for Ron Paul, as I'll believe he'll have another 10% showing as he did in Iowa.

Dropouts--Duncan Hunter might finally pack it up before South Carolina.

I don't think Clinton will fold her tents if she loses tomorrow night or even if she loses both NH and SC (a distinct possibility). There is a certain bandwagon effect that will help Obama, but I think Clinton can wage a "national" campaign and pick up the necessary delegates in places like Florida and California. I'm not much of a prognosticator but I've thought all along that the eventual ticket will be feature Clinton and Obama in either order.

[mrkelley23]

Some additional comments, but definitely just my opinions:

McCain is not moderate-maverick turned hard right winger. He has always been much more conservative on certain issues than some independents have seen him as. He is and always has been hawkish on foreign policy, and his opinion holds weight because of his Vietnam experiences. He is and always has been socially conservative, unlike Gov. Romney, for instance, who is a johnny-come-lately on abortion and other social issues so dear to the Republican base. McCain still has a maverick's heart, but 2000 taught him some hard lessons, which he appears to be applying to this year's campaign, especially where Romney is concerned. I think McCain can pull off both NH and South Carolina, as long as nobody hires Karl Rove. Then it gets a little murkier, because while Romney may be done, Giuliani is waiting in the wings. And Huckabee isn't going away any time soon.

I would not put it past Hillary to do a little Rove-ing of her own in SC, especially if she gets beat in NH, which looks increasingly likely. She may be done, but she also knows how to play very dirty, and since SC voters have shown themselves to be susceptible to dirty tricks (See McCain 2000), I wouldn't put it past her to start a whisper campaign there against Obama. With full deniability, natch.

[wbtravis007]

The boys in the Prediction Services division are still saying that the nomination is Obama's to lose, and that he'll win by around 10 percentage points in NH.

They're also predicting that Obama and Paul will cut into McCain's share of indepent voters quite a bit, contributing to a Romney win by a margin that will surprise some people.

We'll see.

[Appa23]

The boys in the Prediction Services division are still saying that the nomination is Obama's to lose, and that he'll win by around 10 percentage points in NH.

Obama and Paul will cut into McCain's share of indepent voters quite a bit, contributing to a Romney win by a margin that will surprise some people.

Independant voters, or delusional voters?

I do think that the BB who noted that Paul is just waiting to use his war chest as a Libertarian Prez nominee is right on the money.

I also wonder if Hillary is ever going to find a state where the voters buy that her experience being married to a President should count as presidential experience.

If Dennis Kuchinich ever drops out of the race, Obama will become the least physically-imposing of the candidates. He definitely is not from the central casting idea of President, in name or stature.

This is turning into quite the interesting election year.


As I told my wife, I will pledge my devotion to Fred Thompson if he would just start dropping film lines and counting his film experience as actual experience. (Against Russians in Red October, Terrorists in Die Hard 2)

I really want him to look at Ron Paul, and say "Terrorists (Islamo-Fascists) don't take a dump, son, without a plan. "

[silvercamaro]

I really want him to look at Ron Paul, and say "Terrorists (Islamo-Fascists) don't take a dump, son, without a plan. "

I hereby nominate this line as the funniest thing HD has ever said.

[peacock2121]

I heard a teaser from the 'news' just a bit ago.

Seems Hillary cried on the campaign trail today.

That is all I know about it.

[silvercamaro]

I heard a teaser from the 'news' just a bit ago.

Seems Hillary cried on the campaign trail today.

That is all I know about it.

And they say there's no good news!

[peacock2121]

I heard a teaser from the 'news' just a bit ago.

Seems Hillary cried on the campaign trail today.

That is all I know about it.

And they say there's no good news!

I think you should start telling us what you really think about Hillary and stop beating around the bush.

[wintergreen48]

I would not put it past Hillary to do a little Rove-ing of her own in SC, especially if she gets beat in NH, which looks increasingly likely. She may be done, but she also knows how to play very dirty, and since SC voters have shown themselves to be susceptible to dirty tricks (See McCain 2000), I wouldn't put it past her to start a whisper campaign there against Obama. With full deniability, natch.

Well, that's an easy prediction-- she's already done it. Remember the two separate 'accidentally leaked' e-mails that went on about Obama being Muslim ('allegations' that were not likely to play well for him in Iowa, on the one hand, but 'allegations' that were hard for him to deny without offending people on the other-- difficult to deny an 'accusation' that you are a Muslim without in effect saying that there is something wrong with being a Muslim). Then there was Clinton's NH campaign chair who sent out a memo to other Democrats suggesting that Obama would not be a good choice for the party because THE REPUBLICANS would attack him for his drug use, and THE REPUBLICANS would raise questions about his having bought and sold and cocaine.

Although Rove gets criticized a lot for his sneaky slime tactics, those tactics are typical of the Clinton machine, which routinely and (usually) effectively destroys people who are seen to be threats. Remember when the Monica stuff first came out, and suddenly her shrink and several former professors and employers were all out there talking about how 'delusional' she was, and how she preyed on powerful men and fantasized about non-existent relationships? That only ended when the blue dress came out and it became difficult to explain the, um, stain as her 'fantasy.' Linda Tripp got into trouble for taping her calls with Monica (Tripp is the only person in Maryland ever to have been prosecuted for wiretapping; Maryland must be a really safe state in which to live, from the privacy standpoint, if Tripp was in fact the only person in Maryland ever to have wiretapped someone...); the only reason she did that was because she had previously blown the whistle on something else that was embarrassing to the Clinton Administration, and she was pretty much kicked out of her job because she had no 'proof' of her allegations, which were supposedly delusions; the Monica tapes were her attempt to have proof so that she could not be challenged.

Slimy personal attacks are used because they are seen to be effective, but if you think about it, perhaps they are less effective than believed. In the 2004 campaign, recall that Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt went against each other very nastily in Iowa, and then both eventually just... disappeared, one with a scream, the other with a whimper. Maybe their nastiness and nasty tactics were effective against each other, but ultimately they just paved the way for Kerry, who pretty much bypassed Iowa and eventually won the Democratic nomination without that stuff.

[NellyLunatic1980]

I think Clinton can wage a "national" campaign and pick up the necessary delegates in places like Florida and California.

Actually, Hillary won't get any delegates in Florida... nor will anybody else on the Democratic side. Florida illegally moved its primary one week before Super Tuesday and, as a result, the DNC stripped all Florida Democratic delegates of their votes. Michigan illegally moved up its primary to January 15 and they too have lost their Democratic delegates.

[earendel]

I think Clinton can wage a "national" campaign and pick up the necessary delegates in places like Florida and California.

Actually, Hillary won't get any delegates in Florida... nor will anybody else on the Democratic side. Florida illegally moved its primary one week before Super Tuesday and, as a result, the DNC stripped all Florida Democratic delegates of their votes. Michigan illegally moved up its primary to January 15 and they too have lost their Democratic delegates.

I suspect that will change soon, especially if Clinton wins those primaries.

[ne1410s]

I will pledge my devotion to Fred Thompson if he would just start dropping film lines and counting his film experience as actual experience.

I will pledge my devotion (and vote) to anyone who will end this senseless, needless, brainless "war" in Iraq.

How'd all that experience work out for Dick Cheney and Donnie Rumsfeld?

[Bixby17]

I will pledge my devotion to Fred Thompson if he would just start dropping film lines and counting his film experience as actual experience.

I will pledge my devotion (and vote) to anyone who will end this senseless, needless, brainless "war" in Iraq.

How'd all that experience work out for Dick Cheney and Donnie Rumsfeld?

This is the first election that I recall where I don't want to vote for any of the candidates. That I think they are all out to lunch.

The Dems freak me out with the manner that they want to end the war.

The Republicans are too overly-religious, big government into your lives kind of people. Except Ron Paul who is just a nutball.

Bleh.

[5LD]

I heard on the radio today that the Clintons are calling in all kinds of favors and asking Senators who are Super Delagates to wait until after the Convention to support a candidate. Seems like the Clintons think that if they get enough of these Super Delagates they can swing the vote to mean Hillary wins the nomination. Sidney Blumenthal when asked point blank if this was going on, did not say "no". Currently Clinton has 10 Senators in her corner. 2 have declared for Obama.

[ne1410s]

I read today that WJC lost the first five primaries/caucuseseseses and still won the nomination. Hillary will last until the last dollar is spent. That is not necessarily a good thing.

[nitrah55]

I heard a teaser from the 'news' just a bit ago.

Seems Hillary cried on the campaign trail today.

That is all I know about it.

And that worked so well for Ed Muskie.

Note to Toqueville: This referes to an event which occured around the time you were born. Go Bucks!

[Tocqueville3]

I heard a teaser from the 'news' just a bit ago.

Seems Hillary cried on the campaign trail today.

That is all I know about it.

And that worked so well for Ed Muskie.

Note to Toqueville: This referes to an event which occured around the time you were born. Go Bucks!

Note to Nitrah:

Kiss my ass.*









*I was thinking about putting a little smilie at the end of my post but I was worried it might look too Holtdad. I would rather people take me too seriously than compare me to HD.

[etaoin22]

Obama may or may not be the best candidate but anointing a nominee on the basis of Iowa caucus results, which seems to be happening as it did in 2004, has gotta be one of the stupider concepts in any democracy, anywhere.

[NellyLunatic1980]

Judging by some of the early returns and exit polls, I might be way low on Obama's margin of victory. I'm starting to hear as much as a 15% win for the Illinois senator. If that number is right, then this nomination is his to lose. Hillary is all but toastified.

[PlacentiaSoccerMom]

Judging by some of the early returns and exit polls, I might be way low on Obama's margin of victory. I'm starting to hear as much as a 15% win for the Illinois senator. If that number is right, then this nomination is his to lose. Hillary is all but toastified.

Or not.