Transcript 11/10/2009 Tony Westmoreland (ToT #9)

[lv42day]

Dear Confessor, the comments that you quoted from me were about a hypothetical situation that I raised earlier, that parallels the dilemma that ToT players face, but not perfectly. In my hypothetical situation, the person in question is "you," what if "you" were offered.... So you could be poor, middle class or rich.

[lv42day]

Oh, and I didn't mean to imply that taking the chance in my hypothetical situation was "irrational." If anything I called it brave. If I wanted to suggest it was irrational choice, I would have used the word "foolhardy"

[frogman042]

It is interesting that when you talk about odds, is that it is a one time shot. If you can play multiple times then that changes things - but this isn't the case. The payout is huge but the wager is huge (for most people - even if they are sure of getting 25K, the smallest amount at risk is another 25K). For a good number of people that is still too big a risk on a single 1-in-4 shot.

I was thinking, though, what if several of the lower amount ToT players (especially the 50K and possible the 100K) got together and made a deal amoungst each other to 'buy insurance' from each other. Everyone agrees to go for the question, even if they have no clue, on the condition that if one of them ends up being the big winner, that the would cover a all of or a portion of the other players losses, if they guess wrong (and not all of the lower tiered folks would miss, so the big winner does not pay anyone who tired and gets their question correct, only those that missed and suffered a loss). This way the group is almost certain to get the big payout and everyone who participats has greatly mitigated their risk. Of course it is possible that someone higher up would not join in and actually risk their much higher winnings on the MDQ and get it right, and in that case, those who worked as a group and missed their question ends up dropping with no compensation - but it certainly would be a much larger incentive to guess, then the current situation. But betting 225K is a tougher choice than betting 25K with the same payout. Also, if someone early gets it right, and you are part of the group, it is a free guess - if you miss, your loss is covered, if you get it right - by being higher in the chain, you get not the full payout (since you have to payout some of the previous players losses) but still a sizeable amount.

I can't see why this wouldn't work and why it wouldn't be in most players interest to do such a deal.

[MarleysGh0st]

If you look at it from the perspective of a 40 to 1 payout, then it would seem to make sense to risk it. But if you look at it another way.... If someone off the street were to offer you a one in four chance of winning a million dollars, (like picking a random playing card, if its a heart you win), but it will cost you $25,000 if you pick a club, spade or diamond, would you take him up on the offer?

Does the fact that a number of people who compete after you and all of which have the ability to "take" the win from you factor into this equation? Do you go for it knowing that if you are wrong you will lose $25,000 but if you are right you may win $1MM?

I don't have an answer. I think I would have to be at least 50% certain of the answer to risk it but I think I would risk it at the $50k level if I was able to limit it to 2 choices.

Yes, I acknowledged that this particular rule complicates the situation, in an earlier post. The hypothetical lv42day and I are discussing is a simplification.

[MarleysGh0st]

It is interesting that when you talk about odds, is that it is a one time shot. If you can play multiple times then that changes things - but this isn't the case. The payout is huge but the wager is huge (for most people - even if they are sure of getting 25K, the smallest amount at risk is another 25K). For a good number of people that is still too big a risk on a single 1-in-4 shot.

I was thinking, though, what if several of the lower amount ToT players (especially the 50K and possible the 100K) got together and made a deal amoungst each other to 'buy insurance' from each other. Everyone agrees to go for the question, even if they have no clue, on the condition that if one of them ends up being the big winner, that the would cover a all of or a portion of the other players losses, if they guess wrong (and not all of the lower tiered folks would miss, so the big winner does not pay anyone who tired and gets their question correct, only those that missed and suffered a loss). This way the group is almost certain to get the big payout and everyone who participats has greatly mitigated their risk. Of course it is possible that someone higher up would not join in and actually risk their much higher winnings on the MDQ and get it right, and in that case, those who worked as a group and missed their question ends up dropping with no compensation - but it certainly would be a much larger incentive to guess, then the current situation. But betting 225K is a tougher choice than betting 25K with the same payout. Also, if someone early gets it right, and you are part of the group, it is a free guess - if you miss, your loss is covered, if you get it right - by being higher in the chain, you get not the full payout (since you have to payout some of the previous players losses) but still a sizeable amount.

I can't see why this wouldn't work and why it wouldn't be in most players interest to do such a deal.

Isn't there something in the official rules against contestants making deals regarding their potential winnings? I think this came up when Mark Anthony DiBello paid us a visit some years ago and offered us that contract.

[frogman042]

It is interesting that when you talk about odds, is that it is a one time shot. If you can play multiple times then that changes things - but this isn't the case. The payout is huge but the wager is huge (for most people - even if they are sure of getting 25K, the smallest amount at risk is another 25K). For a good number of people that is still too big a risk on a single 1-in-4 shot.

I was thinking, though, what if several of the lower amount ToT players (especially the 50K and possible the 100K) got together and made a deal amoungst each other to 'buy insurance' from each other. Everyone agrees to go for the question, even if they have no clue, on the condition that if one of them ends up being the big winner, that the would cover a all of or a portion of the other players losses, if they guess wrong (and not all of the lower tiered folks would miss, so the big winner does not pay anyone who tired and gets their question correct, only those that missed and suffered a loss). This way the group is almost certain to get the big payout and everyone who participats has greatly mitigated their risk. Of course it is possible that someone higher up would not join in and actually risk their much higher winnings on the MDQ and get it right, and in that case, those who worked as a group and missed their question ends up dropping with no compensation - but it certainly would be a much larger incentive to guess, then the current situation. But betting 225K is a tougher choice than betting 25K with the same payout. Also, if someone early gets it right, and you are part of the group, it is a free guess - if you miss, your loss is covered, if you get it right - by being higher in the chain, you get not the full payout (since you have to payout some of the previous players losses) but still a sizeable amount.

I can't see why this wouldn't work and why it wouldn't be in most players interest to do such a deal.

Isn't there something in the official rules against contestants making deals regarding their potential winnings? I think this came up when Mark Anthony DiBello paid us a visit some years ago and offered us that contract.

I could potentially see something like that for PTBAM when the FF played a role but I don't see how during syndi (with of course the exception of Tot) where each player is autonomous that there would be any need for such a rule. Of course, there might be something in the ToT rules that disallow it.

[MarleysGh0st]

It is interesting that when you talk about odds, is that it is a one time shot. If you can play multiple times then that changes things - but this isn't the case. The payout is huge but the wager is huge (for most people - even if they are sure of getting 25K, the smallest amount at risk is another 25K). For a good number of people that is still too big a risk on a single 1-in-4 shot.

I was thinking, though, what if several of the lower amount ToT players (especially the 50K and possible the 100K) got together and made a deal amoungst each other to 'buy insurance' from each other. Everyone agrees to go for the question, even if they have no clue, on the condition that if one of them ends up being the big winner, that the would cover a all of or a portion of the other players losses, if they guess wrong (and not all of the lower tiered folks would miss, so the big winner does not pay anyone who tired and gets their question correct, only those that missed and suffered a loss). This way the group is almost certain to get the big payout and everyone who participats has greatly mitigated their risk. Of course it is possible that someone higher up would not join in and actually risk their much higher winnings on the MDQ and get it right, and in that case, those who worked as a group and missed their question ends up dropping with no compensation - but it certainly would be a much larger incentive to guess, then the current situation. But betting 225K is a tougher choice than betting 25K with the same payout. Also, if someone early gets it right, and you are part of the group, it is a free guess - if you miss, your loss is covered, if you get it right - by being higher in the chain, you get not the full payout (since you have to payout some of the previous players losses) but still a sizeable amount.

I can't see why this wouldn't work and why it wouldn't be in most players interest to do such a deal.

If this group were to make such a deal, I'll note that the best outcome at this stage would be for all the other players to walk away. To look at just Sam and Jehan, for simplicity, if she answers correctly, she gets $1,000,000 in place of her original $250,000, while Sam goes back to his original $50,000 check, for a combined total of $1,050,000. If Jehan walks away and keeps her original $250,000, their combined total goes up to $1,250,000.

[earendel]

Tony Westmoreland #9
Says he really needed the money and did not want to risk it even though the ATE, also Ken Jennings, provided what turned out to be the correct answer at 100K.
However his wife said go ahead and risk it now.

Time banked: 2:22 Total time 3:07

(potential) $1M:
What great thinker's death is attributed to a chill he caught while stuffing a chicken with snow for an experiment on refrigeration?
A. Pythagoras B. Archimedes
C. Isaac Newton D. Francis Bacon

Spoiler

He was leaning towards D but admits he does not know it and can't eliminate any choices for sure. He decides to leave with the $50K again.

D. Francis Bacon (walk at 1:02)

My thought was either B or C, but without any lifelines I'd have walked away. I always thought of Bacon as a theoretical scientist rather than an experimenter.