And Just Because I'm Evil.....

[littlebeast13]

TUB Post #137428
Author: silverscreenselect
Time: 2:48 AM PST - Tuesday November 2, 2004
Subject: Why Kerry Will Win


During the last week, I had become increasingly confident that Kerry was going
to win, up until the release of the Osama tape. Frankly, that threw me and I
was fearful that a sufficient number of people might view that as a reason to
change their votes to make a difference. However, polls since that time have
not shown any significant move in Bush's favor. In addition, and I think this
is telling, various right wing commentators have been openly speculating since
Friday that the tape was going to help Bush (or that Osama wants Kerry to win,
which is almost the same thing).

If Bush were ahead, or it were too close to call, the prudent thing for these
people to do would be to say something neutral like: "we don't let terrorists
dictate our electrions." Instead, these people, like William Safire in his
column Monday, are saying that it is good news for the President that a
sociopathic mass murderer who has killed thousands of Americans and wants to
kill many more is alive, in good health and expressing his opinions about the
upcoming Presidential race. That smacks of desperation.

In fact, desperation is evident in a lot of what is being said and coming out
from Republicans nowadays. We all know that the candidates and those close to
them have access to better polling data than the public at large, and the word
seeping out from the inside of the Kerry campaign is confidence and from Bush
is a combination of desperation and resignation. The key telling point for me
was when I heard Rush Limbaugh turned down a request from NBC to do election
night commentary (which he did in 2002). Rush's "official" reason was that he
was going to be too busy to devote hours of his time in the NBC studio, but
you know that an egotistical blowhard like Rush would be more than happy to
get "neutral" network time to rub America's nose in a Bush victory. His
absence means he knows what is going to happen and he doesn't want to face Tim
Russert and Tom Brokaw.

There has never been an election in which both sides could legitimately point
to a number of respectable polls to construct scenarios for their candidate to
win, and this has been the case this year. I have been following both left and
right wing blogs and websites this last month and many in both camps are
reasonably confident (90% with the other 10% telling them to do what they can
to get out the vote)their man will win. Obviously, both can't be right. I know
my own biases are evident. However, when I look at the trends and what is
happening, everything (with the exception of the apparently now negligible
Osama tape) points to a significant Kerry win.

Factors such as the 50% rule (incumbents under 50% won't win), the undecideds
break against the incumbent rule and the general tone of world developments in
the last week all go against Bush. Independents seem to be going against him.
2000 Nader voters seem to be going against him. Young voters seem to be going
against him. Definable minorities such as blacks, Hispanics, Arabs, gays,
military, and evangelicals seem to be less in his favor than four years ago.
Polls show that there are more Daniel Drezner Republicans than Ron Silver
Democrats. Early voting in key states like Florida and Iowa are going against
him (early voting as a whole favors Bush, but most states allowing early
voting were Bush states anyway). But I think there is something more basic as
a factor here.

I think that most polls are flawed, and that this flaw was exposed in 2000
(when there was a 4-5% break to Gore in the last week) but has been ignored
because the pollsters were able to spin that the break was caused by the
revelation of the Bush DUI and the successful Democratic GOTV efforts. First,
it is ludicrous to think that a 25-year old DUI caused lots of people to
either change their minds or sit out the election (as they claim happened with
evangelicals). Second, GOTV efforts for Democrats were quite successful, but
there is every reason to believe those same efforts will continue this year
and be just as successful.

Most reported poll numbers are "likely" voters, that is people who Gallup or
Zogby or whoever feels are likely to vote. In about 19 out of 20 polls, the
likely voter totals tilt more Republican than the Democratic, so the
pollster's criteria screens out more Democrats. But 2000 proved those numbers
wrong and this year looks to be more of the same due to the same types of
efforts. But the pollsters haven't changed their basic methodology.

I know that Republicans are organizing their own GOTV efforts this year. But
there is a fundamental differenc between what they are doing and the Dems.
Republicans are trying to energize their base by calling to remind them of the
election and why they should vote for Bush (as if anyone had forgotten before
this weekend there was a presidential election). In some cases, "likely"
Republican voters are getting called over and over again (unfortunately,
neither Mrs. SSS nor I has been called so I have not had the pleasure of
personally telling one of them where to go). Democrats, whose voters tend to
be more concentrated in urban areas, are more concerned with practicalities
like getting people enough time off from work and to the polls and arranging
for child care on election day.

Beyond all that, I think the polls undervalue some minorities, undervalue
young voters, exclude cell phone voters (who are younger and skew Democratic),
and exclude those who refuse to answer questions over the phone. All of those
would help Democratic totals. I also think that this year there will be a
significant portion of voters who will vote for Kerry but will not be willing
to tell a pollster so in advance. Lifelong Republicans who are abandoning Bush
may be unwilling to tell anyone this, even an "anonymous" pollster. All this
points to a more significant Kerry total than shown in many places.

My final predictions:

Popular vote: Kerry 51%, Bush 47%, Other (Nader, Libertarian, Green, etc.) 2%.

Electoral vote: Kerry (Gore states plus AR, FL, NH and OH) 312, Bush (Bush
2000 states plus NM) 226.

Senate races:

Dems to gain seats in AK, CO, IL, and OK. Reps to gain seats in GA, NC and SC.
One way or another, the LA race, which probably won't be decided until a
December runoff, will be a key for control of the Senate. This leads to a
50/50 tie with Edwards breaking the tie. I also look, if this happens, for RI
Senator Chaffee to pull a Jeffords and start canvassing with the Dems.

[MarleysGh0st]

I'm really curious to see if the real SSS will emerge again or if the Rovian pod person will remain for the next four to eight years.

[peacock2121]

You are a bad boy.

a berry berry bad boy

[Boring Mini]

Can I be Rovian_Pod_Person, or has Marley trademarked it...?

[littlebeast13]

Can I be Rovian_Pod_Person, or has Marley trademarked it...?

As long as you get a non-boring avatar for it....

lb13

[MarleysGh0st]

Can I be Rovian_Pod_Person, or has Marley trademarked it...?

I don't use MM, so be my guest!

[JBillyGirl]

Could you be even more evil and dig up the post in which SSS said Obama would lose a whole mess of Democratic states, including New Jersey?

[PlacentiaSoccerMom]

I think that he posted just to increase his post count.

[PlacentiaSoccerMom]

Not that there is anything wrong with that.

[JBillyGirl]

I get it. Ah well, it is a free country!