Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

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Bob78164
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Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#1 Post by Bob78164 » Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:57 pm

My Caltech classmate Joe personally knows and vouches for the author of this. Joe advises that the author has decades of experience in disaster management and that he is NOT prone to hyperbole.
Rakesh Bharania wrote:This is a non-"Monday post" with a warning. It is public.

In looking at all the data I've seen today, it is increasingly clear to me that July will be a nightmare that will eclipse the worst days of what NYC and the rest of the Northeast recently went though. Last weekend, I saw models that all pointed to about 20,000 additional fatalities in the United States in the next 30 days.

Now I am wondering if those models are low-balling things. I really want to be wrong about this, but there (even now! today!) still too much denial and magical thinking by decision makers at every level of the response. There is still no national strategy for this.

Everyone reading this in the US: please start preparing for a reimposition of strict quarantine protocols, for things that have been reopened, to shut down again. If you are in hotspot locations (Arizona, Texas, Florida, etc) start preparing for the collapse of your healthcare systems. What meds do you need? What capacities do you need to sustain yourself and your household for the next 2 months by yourself?

Do this now. Today. This weekend.

If you've been following anything I'm writing and relying on me as a form of early warning, here's your warning: I am sounding the alarm. This is going to be another horrific sequence. Take actions today to prepare yourselves and your household and those people in your circles for what is to come.

If you have started to go out and about again in these hotspot locations, you will want to curtail that in advance of official government orders. Government at every level has been too slow, half-measured and inconsistent. You'll need to take that responsibility on for yourself instead of relying upon some official source.

I wish I were exaggerating, that I was engaged in some form of hyperbole. I want nothing more than to revisit this post 30 days from today and say I was very, very wrong. But I don't think I will be.

Be safe out there. Be very very smart and diligent out there - be smarter than our leaders who have done jack-all to meet the challenge of the moment. Be kind. Be good humans.
Please take this seriously and literally, particularly if you live in a hot spot. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#2 Post by silverscreenselect » Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:13 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:57 pm
Please take this seriously and literally, particularly if you live in a hot spot. --Bob
Here in Georgia, Mrs. SSS and I went to Olive Garden to pick up dinner. On the way back, we passed Joey D's Oak Room, an upscale steakhouse that just reopened for in-person dining today. The parking lot was full. My experience when I've driven around is that it seems like business as normal (our office is still working from home). Today, we had 1900 new cases, a record for the state. We had almost 1900 on Tuesday and over 1500 every day this week. Last week at this time we were getting 800-900 cases a day which I felt was still too high. But today, our governor gave a briefing, not to announce new restrictions but to tell people how well the reopening plan was working.
Gov. Brian Kemp doesn’t plan to impose new restrictions or require the use of masks to combat the spread of the coronavirus in Georgia, he said Friday as he tried to balance an increase in cases of the disease with his decision to roll back limits. The Republican said mandating masks is a “bridge too far for me right now” and that the state continues to “hold our own” in the quest to contain the disease, citing increased troves of lifesaving personal protection equipment and testimony from hospital executives encouraged by new treatments.“I’m certainly not imposing new restrictions right now. I think what we have on the books has done very well for us,” Kemp said at a media briefing
I'm glad they have new treatments in the hospitals because they will have plenty of opportunity to test those treatments in the weeks to come. Trump, Kemp, DeSantis, Abbott, Ducey, and the like are killing people. At least Florida and Texas slowed down a bit today, but Kemp is still acting as if everything is fine.
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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#3 Post by kroxquo » Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:56 am

And meanwhile in my state of North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) signed an executive order this week mandating the wearing of masks which resulted in A)a number of sheriffs, D.A.'s, and other officials publicly announcing that they will not enforce it because they feel it is unenforcable and/or unconstitutional; B)a rush by people on doctors to find some sort of medical exemption and C) Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) (who is also the Rep. candidate for governor this year) filing a lawsuit against Cooper for exceeding his constitutional authority. Did I mention that there is some dissension in the Old North State?
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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#4 Post by Bob Juch » Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:55 am

silverscreenselect wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:13 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:57 pm
Please take this seriously and literally, particularly if you live in a hot spot. --Bob
Here in Georgia, Mrs. SSS and I went to Olive Garden to pick up dinner. On the way back, we passed Joey D's Oak Room, an upscale steakhouse that just reopened for in-person dining today. The parking lot was full. My experience when I've driven around is that it seems like business as normal (our office is still working from home). Today, we had 1900 new cases, a record for the state. We had almost 1900 on Tuesday and over 1500 every day this week. Last week at this time we were getting 800-900 cases a day which I felt was still too high. But today, our governor gave a briefing, not to announce new restrictions but to tell people how well the reopening plan was working.
Gov. Brian Kemp doesn’t plan to impose new restrictions or require the use of masks to combat the spread of the coronavirus in Georgia, he said Friday as he tried to balance an increase in cases of the disease with his decision to roll back limits. The Republican said mandating masks is a “bridge too far for me right now” and that the state continues to “hold our own” in the quest to contain the disease, citing increased troves of lifesaving personal protection equipment and testimony from hospital executives encouraged by new treatments.“I’m certainly not imposing new restrictions right now. I think what we have on the books has done very well for us,” Kemp said at a media briefing
I'm glad they have new treatments in the hospitals because they will have plenty of opportunity to test those treatments in the weeks to come. Trump, Kemp, DeSantis, Abbott, Ducey, and the like are killing people. At least Florida and Texas slowed down a bit today, but Kemp is still acting as if everything is fine.
We have a similar situation here. We've been breaking the record for new cases every day this week.
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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#5 Post by bazodee » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:16 am

Just another piece of anecdotal info:

I tried to refill a 3-month prescription for a generic blood pressure medication (lisinopril). My pharmacist at Walgreens can't find any. He says there's been a rush on it. He doesn't believe there's been any manufacturing issue.... it's just consumer behavior.

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#6 Post by Bob Juch » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:35 am

bazodee wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:16 am
Just another piece of anecdotal info:

I tried to refill a 3-month prescription for a generic blood pressure medication (lisinopril). My pharmacist at Walgreens can't find any. He says there's been a rush on it. He doesn't believe there's been any manufacturing issue... it's just consumer behavior.
There's a shortage because it's been discontinued. Once existing stocks are depleted, it's gone.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#7 Post by Bob78164 » Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:17 am

Bob Juch wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:35 am
bazodee wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:16 am
Just another piece of anecdotal info:

I tried to refill a 3-month prescription for a generic blood pressure medication (lisinopril). My pharmacist at Walgreens can't find any. He says there's been a rush on it. He doesn't believe there's been any manufacturing issue... it's just consumer behavior.
There's a shortage because it's been discontinued. Once existing stocks are depleted, it's gone.
I can't quickly find confirmation of that claim on the Internet. What's your source? --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#8 Post by Weyoun » Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:08 pm

Lisinopril is not discontinued.

It is thought to be protective against COVID infections because of how it regulates the ACE2 receptor. So it's getting popular.

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#9 Post by Bob Juch » Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:57 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:17 am
Bob Juch wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:35 am
bazodee wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:16 am
Just another piece of anecdotal info:

I tried to refill a 3-month prescription for a generic blood pressure medication (lisinopril). My pharmacist at Walgreens can't find any. He says there's been a rush on it. He doesn't believe there's been any manufacturing issue... it's just consumer behavior.
There's a shortage because it's been discontinued. Once existing stocks are depleted, it's gone.
I can't quickly find confirmation of that claim on the Internet. What's your source? --Bob
The FDA: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/ ... =4&panel=4
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#10 Post by bazodee » Sat Jun 27, 2020 4:59 pm

Bob Juch wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 3:57 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:17 am
Bob Juch wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:35 am

There's a shortage because it's been discontinued. Once existing stocks are depleted, it's gone.
I can't quickly find confirmation of that claim on the Internet. What's your source? --Bob
The FDA: https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/ ... =4&panel=4
This suggests that just this one (generic) manufacturer, Mylan, discontinued production. The drug is manufactured by many pharmaceutical companies and is very widely prescribed.

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#11 Post by Spock » Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:12 pm

Just got back from a 4,000 mile road trip-Minnesota to Vegas via several national parks.

I didn't notice much concern about the virus from the large numbers of people openly smoking marijuana on the strip. That was a new feature that has been added to the strip since my last visit.

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#12 Post by Bob Juch » Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:33 am

Spock wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:12 pm
Just got back from a 4,000 mile road trip-Minnesota to Vegas via several national parks.

I didn't notice much concern about the virus from the large numbers of people openly smoking marijuana on the strip. That was a new feature that has been added to the strip since my last visit.
I don't know whether that's become legal now, but when it was first legalized you couldn't nor in hotels or anyplace others than private residences.
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

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Re: Alarm bells from a friend of a friend

#13 Post by Spock » Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:12 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 7:13 pm
Bob78164 wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 3:57 pm
Please take this seriously and literally, particularly if you live in a hot spot. --Bob
Here in Georgia, Mrs. SSS and I went to Olive Garden to pick up dinner. On the way back, we passed Joey D's Oak Room, an upscale steakhouse that just reopened for in-person dining today. The parking lot was full. My experience when I've driven around is that it seems like business as normal (our office is still working from home). Today, we had 1900 new cases, a record for the state. We had almost 1900 on Tuesday and over 1500 every day this week. Last week at this time we were getting 800-900 cases a day which I felt was still too high. But today, our governor gave a briefing, not to announce new restrictions but to tell people how well the reopening plan was working.
Gov. Brian Kemp doesn’t plan to impose new restrictions or require the use of masks to combat the spread of the coronavirus in Georgia, he said Friday as he tried to balance an increase in cases of the disease with his decision to roll back limits. The Republican said mandating masks is a “bridge too far for me right now” and that the state continues to “hold our own” in the quest to contain the disease, citing increased troves of lifesaving personal protection equipment and testimony from hospital executives encouraged by new treatments.“I’m certainly not imposing new restrictions right now. I think what we have on the books has done very well for us,” Kemp said at a media briefing
I'm glad they have new treatments in the hospitals because they will have plenty of opportunity to test those treatments in the weeks to come. Trump, Kemp, DeSantis, Abbott, Ducey, and the like are killing people. At least Florida and Texas slowed down a bit today, but Kemp is still acting as if everything is fine.
Way to feel superior by driving past currently full parking lots without mentioning the fact that millions of people broke social distancing and quarantine measures about 3 to 4 weeks ago-just in time for the recent spike to exhibit itself.

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