WWTBAM Bored

Especially as the lockdowns come down.

However, the lockdowns were never sold to us as a means of eliminating the disease.

I know they have the attention span of gnats so SSS and the Bobs don't remember this, but surely some here remember all the "Flattening the curve" graphs.

The lockdowns and stay at home orders were never predicated on the assumption that the total number of cases would even decrease-it would just stretch the number out over time.

Surely, by now, we can handle more cases-Obviously, we have plenty of ventilators and hospital space nationwide.

It seems that a modest increase in cases (possibly to be expected as restrictions ease) would be consistent with all the 'flattening the curve' graphs we saw 2 months ago. Or are we just supposed to drop those graphs down the memory hole?

We need to start building up some herd immunity at some point.

Dropping back into my gopher hole.

How many of your family members are you willing to sacrifice?

Spock wrote: ↑

Wed May 13, 2020 7:56 pm

Especially as the lockdowns come down.

However, the lockdowns were never sold to us as a means of eliminating the disease.

I know they have the attention span of gnats so SSS and the Bobs don't remember this, but surely some here remember all the "Flattening the curve" graphs.

The lockdowns and stay at home orders were never predicated on the assumption that the total number of cases would even decrease-it would just stretch the number out over time.

Surely, by now, we can handle more cases-Obviously, we have plenty of ventilators and hospital space nationwide.

It seems that a modest increase in cases (possibly to be expected as restrictions ease) would be consistent with all the 'flattening the curve' graphs we saw 2 months ago. Or are we just supposed to drop those graphs down the memory hole?

We need to start building up some herd immunity at some point.

Dropping back into my gopher hole.

Actually, the purpose of the lockdowns was supposed to be to knock the numbers down far enough to make test-and-trace practicable. But that would have required the federal government to actually use its authority under the Defense Production Act to ramp up production of test kits far beyond what we're seeing today. Our failure to do so lays at the feet of the only person with authority to invoke that authority -- Donny.

The contagiousness of this disease hasn't changed. Left unmolested, the number of cases doubles approximately every 60 hours or so, which means that it multiplies by 8 in a little more than a week. And that means that if our hospitals are now operating at 1/8 of their capacity, we're only one week away from filling them to capacity. So by the time a state can see that it's in trouble, it will already be too late.

And if by "acquiring herd immunity" you mean simply allow the pandemic to run its course, there is no way we can stretch the curve enough to avoid utterly swamping our hospitals. We had maybe 5% of the number of hospital beds we'd need at the peak of a pandemic. Does it look to you like we've increased our capacity by 20-fold?

In November we will choose who will lead the federal response to the second half of the pandemic. We will have only two choices. Choose wisely. Choose as though your life depends on it. Because it may. --Bob

Bob hit the points I was going to make, but I'd add a couple.

1) Estimates are that anything resembling herd immunity would require about 90% of the population to be infected. If the virus has a 1% fatality rate, we are talking about three million dead. If that happens, the only part of the economy that will be flourishing will be the funeral business. Epidemiologists are in agreement that practical herd immunity is virtually impossible in the absence of a vaccine, and that's assuming that immunity remains effective, which so far is an unknown.

2) I have yet to say any concerted effort at the federal level or in most states to do the sort of contact tracing that's needed. Trump views tests as a number to brag about, the same as ventilators, rather than as a means to an end.

3) We still don't know the full effect of the virus since the earliest survivors only caught the disease about three months ago. There are already reports of people who now test negative having problems with blood clots, kidney failure, and other problems. We're also starting to see reports of children with a disease that's the result of their immune systems overreacting. So there's really no way to know if six months to a year from now a significant number of survivors start developing all sorts of other ailments that technically aren't the result of the coronavirus but are just as deadly.

4) Trump, Spock, and our governor Brian Kemp seem to think that just waving a magic wand and reopening businesses will bring the economy back. I've been to two restaurants for carryout since Georgia reopened them. Both times it was about 6:00 in the evening, and each restaurant had one person dining in. You can't force people who are afraid to go shopping or dining, and the vocal idiots who are demonstrating might fill one bar in Colorado, but they won't keep every business in the state open by themselves. And even those who might like to spend some more money can't do so if they're unemployed and can't pay the rent. Studies from the 1918 flu epidemic showed that cities that enforced stricter quarantines wound up with healthier economies in the years following the epidemic than those that didn't.

5) Trump has so far squelched the release of CDC guidelines for safer reopening of businesses, so they are pretty much operating in the dark as to what the safest practices are. While I don't think any businesses actively want their customers to get sick, most of these safeguards are expensive and time consuming. Human nature being what it is, you can expect a slacking off as time goes by (I've already seen some of it in less than two weeks here in Georgia), especially when the Republicans are all either downplaying the virus or supporting "individual rights."

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Wed May 13, 2020 10:15 pm

... especially when the Republicans are all either downplaying the virus or supporting "individual rights."

Republicans are NEVER "all" doing anything. Huge numbers of us are doing neither, as you claim. Your constant generalizations betray your ignorance and small-mindedness.

Estonut wrote: ↑

Thu May 14, 2020 4:35 am

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Wed May 13, 2020 10:15 pm

... especially when the Republicans are all either downplaying the virus or supporting "individual rights."

Republicans are NEVER "all" doing anything. Huge numbers of us are doing neither, as you claim. Your constant generalizations betray your ignorance and small-mindedness.

You're right. There are a few like George Conway and Steve Schmidt who have let their displeasure be known. And if I've somehow missed your similar postings, I apologize.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Thu May 14, 2020 6:15 am

Estonut wrote: ↑

Thu May 14, 2020 4:35 am

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Wed May 13, 2020 10:15 pm

... especially when the Republicans are all either downplaying the virus or supporting "individual rights."

Republicans are NEVER "all" doing anything. Huge numbers of us are doing neither, as you claim. Your constant generalizations betray your ignorance and small-mindedness.

You're right. There are a few like George Conway and Steve Schmidt who have let their displeasure be known. And if I've somehow missed your similar postings, I apologize.

So you think that everyone who hasn't posted here against "downplaying the virus or the support of 'individual rights'" agrees with one or the other. In your mind, does that include Democrats who haven't posted, either?

Estonut wrote: ↑

Thu May 14, 2020 6:13 pm

So you think that everyone who hasn't posted here against "downplaying the virus or the support of 'individual rights'" agrees with one or the other. In your mind, does that include Democrats who haven't posted, either?

You've finally come up with a quote that's worthy of Donald Trump. It makes no sense whatsoever.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Thu May 14, 2020 7:10 pm

Estonut wrote: ↑

Thu May 14, 2020 6:13 pm

So you think that everyone who hasn't posted here against "downplaying the virus or the support of 'individual rights'" agrees with one or the other. In your mind, does that include Democrats who haven't posted, either?

You've finally come up with a quote that's worthy of Donald Trump. It makes no sense whatsoever.

I suwanee

Trump today: "When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing we would have very few cases."

I didn't think it was that obtuse. Sorry, I guess I overestimated your intelligence.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Wed May 13, 2020 10:15 pm

... especially when the Republicans are all either downplaying the virus or supporting "individual rights."

Estonut wrote: ↑

Thu May 14, 2020 4:35 am

Republicans are NEVER "all" doing anything. Huge numbers of us are doing neither, as you claim. Your constant generalizations betray your ignorance and small-mindedness.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Thu May 14, 2020 6:15 am

You're right. There are a few like George Conway and Steve Schmidt who have let their displeasure be known. And if I've somehow missed your similar postings, I apologize.

This section implies that those who did not voice their displeasure "are all either downplaying the virus or supporting "individual rights." You then added a dig at me implying that since I had not made similar postings, I must also be "either downplaying the virus or supporting "individual rights."

I thought my point was simple, in that failure to voice displeasure IS NOT necessarily (nor always) an indication of support. My counter question to you is that there are millions of Democrats who also failed to voice their displeasure. Your faulty logic suggests that they are all also "either downplaying the virus or supporting "individual rights." I don't think that's true.

Spock wrote: ↑

Wed May 13, 2020 7:56 pm

Obviously, SSS and the Bobs are going to politicize every Covid case

Spock, you and your party have spent the past eight years politicizing the deaths at Benghazi. There's also the Republican politicization of deaths on 9/11. And, of course, there's Vince Foster's suicide. Every step of the way, you personally have either parroted the GOP talking points, justified the politicization, or stood silent.

Go sit your remedial ass down some damn where.