Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

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Spock
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Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#1 Post by Spock » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:00 am

Question being floated around

Will the economic disruptions caused by the lockdowns cause more deaths through suicide due to economic despair than are lost to the virus?

It goes without saying that the unprecedented measures being taken will cause many deaths (not all through suicide) and it is only fair to recognize that.

Powerline has a post on the topic: But my thoughts have been turning in that direction-and I take second place behind no one here in my early recognition that Coronavirus is serious. I have been watching it very closely since it first popped up in China and the MSM was still minimizing it.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/ ... action.php

Pull Quote>>>"The answers to those questions (re:The Flu deaths) are speculative, but this is not: by dictating a virtual cessation of economic activity, government at all levels, but especially state and local, are causing an economic collapse the likes of which, if it continues, we have not seen since the Great Depression, if ever. When has such a government-caused disaster comparably devastated a non-socialist country? Not often. The inflation of the Weimar Republic comes to mind.

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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#2 Post by Bob Juch » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:13 am

The decrease in traffic deaths will probably compensate for an increase in suicides. They're doing a lot to ensure workers do not get to severe enough economic distress.

There have been other counties that had hyperinflation crises. Argentina, Brazil, and Zimbabwe come to mind.
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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#3 Post by Beebs52 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:47 pm

Also, the definition of work vs life. While many telecommute already, the separation blurs when many do. And, in 4 months will everyone just wanna go hug peeps in a crowd. Or develop anxieties en masse common to those who have been socially distanced before? Or write more books, paint more pictures?
Just trying to be hopefulish. Houses will be cleaner...
Oh please.

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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#4 Post by Spock » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:14 pm

"Needed The Re-Opening Plan:Fast"

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020 ... -fast.html

Also Jesse Kelly on Twitter has a lot of posts on the bad side of the shutdowns. He fully recognizes the seriousness of the virus-but believes the response might be overdone

https://twitter.com/JesseKellyDC

This particular thread about an employer of 91 is especially important and deserves attention.

https://twitter.com/JesseKellyDC/status ... 8254057473

A couple of other favorites

>>>>Well you’ve got about another week I’d guess. Maybe two at the most. Then people are gonna start going back to work BECAUSE YOU CANNOT JUST SHUT DOWN THE LARGEST ECONOMY IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD.<<<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

>>>"Every politician who has a meeting with an expert to discuss the consequences of not locking down America should also have a meeting with someone telling them what 40% unemployment and soup lines look like.

And only one of those guys is currently getting a meeting."<<<<
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

>>>"I think people pretend an economy can just be switched on and off. We’re not switching the economy off. We’re slamming into a wall at 250 mph. It doesn’t just turn back on after a “pause”.<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

>>>>Oh. Ok. No worries. Netflix it is. When my employees call begging to return to work so they can feed their children, I’ll just give them my Netflix password. All good.
Quote Tweet<<<<<<
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#5 Post by Beebs52 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:51 pm

There's so much manipulation of financial markets and all, I think whatever happens is gonna happen regardless. Global economy peeps.
Oh please.

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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#6 Post by silverscreenselect » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:53 pm

Spock wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:14 pm
He fully recognizes the seriousness of the virus-but believes the response might be overdone
No, he says he recognizes the seriousness of the virus, but downplays it in comparison to the response. How much of a dollar figure can you place on half the US population getting infected? And if we get totals anywhere near that, those fatality rates are going to start going way up because there just won't be enough hospitals or trained medical personnel to treat people who might have been treatable.
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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#7 Post by Bob78164 » Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:35 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:53 pm
Spock wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:14 pm
He fully recognizes the seriousness of the virus-but believes the response might be overdone
No, he says he recognizes the seriousness of the virus, but downplays it in comparison to the response. How much of a dollar figure can you place on half the US population getting infected? And if we get totals anywhere near that, those fatality rates are going to start going way up because there just won't be enough hospitals or trained medical personnel to treat people who might have been treatable.
It's not a bad idea to keep an eye on the number of people who will die because of damage to the economy. But that is fundamentally a problem that can be solved by money. Not tax cuts to businesses, such as Republicans want to do, because that's there solution to everything. And not a one-time payment to most taxpayers, whether they need it or not. Money, month after month, placed directly in the hands of people who are losing income so that they can continue to pay their bills, keep a roof over their heads, and buy food. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#8 Post by silverscreenselect » Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:50 am

Here's when conservatives take the coronavirus seriously:

Her Facebook Friends Asked if Anyone Was Actually Sick. She Had an Answer.
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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#9 Post by Bob78164 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:25 pm

Here is the best answer to this question that I have seen. The analysis here strikes me as superb. It's very long. Read it anyway. Every word.

Here's my summary: We need to engage in serious social distancing for a few weeks right now because it will buy us time. We'll definitely use that time in two ways, and in addition we may also get lucky with an effective treatment.

The two ways in which we'll definitely use that time are (a) massively increase our ability to test people, and (b) significantly increase the surge capacity of our health care system. Once we have, in particular, massively increased our ability to test people, we can switch to the South Korean model, which has kept the pandemic under control without the need for strict social distancing measures.

In other words, if we use the time we are buying effectively, in a few weeks life can return to something closely resembling normal until enough time has passed to create a vaccine. --Bob
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason than that of blindfolded fear." Thomas Jefferson

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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#10 Post by Bob Juch » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:34 pm

Bob78164 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:25 pm
Here is the best answer to this question that I have seen. The analysis here strikes me as superb. It's very long. Read it anyway. Every word.

Here's my summary: We need to engage in serious social distancing for a few weeks right now because it will buy us time. We'll definitely use that time in two ways, and in addition we may also get lucky with an effective treatment.

The two ways in which we'll definitely use that time are (a) massively increase our ability to test people, and (b) significantly increase the surge capacity of our health care system. Once we have, in particular, massively increased our ability to test people, we can switch to the South Korean model, which has kept the pandemic under control without the need for strict social distancing measures.

In other words, if we use the time we are buying effectively, in a few weeks life can return to something closely resembling normal until enough time has passed to create a vaccine. --Bob
My Italian-Swiss niece in Locarno, Switzerland told me today that there are so many cases overloading the hospitals in northern Italy that they are having to triage patients. Some are told they aren't sick enough (yet), others are admitted, and others are told to go home to die. :shock:
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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#11 Post by Spock » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:42 am

BobJ>>>"The decrease in traffic deaths will probably compensate for an increase in suicides. They're doing a lot to ensure workers do not get to severe enough economic distress."<<<<

I will call your decrease in traffic deaths and raise you the number of people who die from delays in "Elective" surgery. The husband of a co-worker of Mrs. Spock was scheduled for Prostrate surgery at Mayo in early April. Well, Mayo called and canceled, Said co-worker was distraught. Some of these delays in supposed "Elective" surgery will cost lives.

As to ensuring that "workers" don't have economic distress, doesn't do much good if said worker is employed by a small business that is affected by the shutdowns.

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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#12 Post by silverscreenselect » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:55 am

Spock wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:42 am
I will call your decrease in traffic deaths and raise you the number of people who die from delays in "Elective" surgery. The husband of a co-worker of Mrs. Spock was scheduled for Prostrate surgery at Mayo in early April. Well, Mayo called and canceled, Said co-worker was distraught. Some of these delays in supposed "Elective" surgery will cost lives.
As opposed to the people who might get such surgery and find themselves contracting the virus while in a compromised health situation. And I can personally relate to this. I was scheduled to see a urologist next week because there were some troubling indications on my recent tests following my checkup in January. Although I asked for the first available appointment with any urologist at the Emory Clinic, I was told that late March would be the earliest appointment I could get (and if I'd wanted a male urologist it would have been another month). And of course, that's now off indefinitely. So, yes, I am concerned. But a rush of people demanding elective surgery isn't going to help the situation.
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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#13 Post by jarnon » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:54 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:55 am
Spock wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:42 am
I will call your decrease in traffic deaths and raise you the number of people who die from delays in "Elective" surgery. The husband of a co-worker of Mrs. Spock was scheduled for Prostrate surgery at Mayo in early April. Well, Mayo called and canceled, Said co-worker was distraught. Some of these delays in supposed "Elective" surgery will cost lives.
As opposed to the people who might get such surgery and find themselves contracting the virus while in a compromised health situation. And I can personally relate to this. I was scheduled to see a urologist next week because there were some troubling indications on my recent tests following my checkup in January. Although I asked for the first available appointment with any urologist at the Emory Clinic, I was told that late March would be the earliest appointment I could get (and if I'd wanted a male urologist it would have been another month). And of course, that's now off indefinitely. So, yes, I am concerned. But a rush of people demanding elective surgery isn't going to help the situation.
I don't think Spock is advocating scheduling elective surgery now. He's just pointing out an unfortunate side effect of the crisis. You can easily think of many more: more deaths due to lack of hospital space and medical equipment, less gun violence in the streets, more domestic gun violence, fewer industrial accidents, less disease caused by pollution, etc.

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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#14 Post by Bob Juch » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:02 pm

silverscreenselect wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:55 am
Spock wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:42 am
I will call your decrease in traffic deaths and raise you the number of people who die from delays in "Elective" surgery. The husband of a co-worker of Mrs. Spock was scheduled for Prostrate surgery at Mayo in early April. Well, Mayo called and canceled, Said co-worker was distraught. Some of these delays in supposed "Elective" surgery will cost lives.
As opposed to the people who might get such surgery and find themselves contracting the virus while in a compromised health situation. And I can personally relate to this. I was scheduled to see a urologist next week because there were some troubling indications on my recent tests following my checkup in January. Although I asked for the first available appointment with any urologist at the Emory Clinic, I was told that late March would be the earliest appointment I could get (and if I'd wanted a male urologist it would have been another month). And of course, that's now off indefinitely. So, yes, I am concerned. But a rush of people demanding elective surgery isn't going to help the situation.
My daughter was in a roll-over accident a few weeks ago. Her car was T-boned when she was in Sonora, California to give a human-trafficking seminar. She broke her wrist in three places which seems to be healing with just a cast but also tore her rotator cuff. She told me Friday that she's driving to White Settlement, Texas to pick up her stuff and take it back to her home in Pasadena, California. She says she's going to have an operation to fix that when she gets back. I asked, "Haven't they canceled all elective surgery there?" She said they have not canceled hers. Strange.
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Re: Will The Lockdowns Cause More Deaths Than Coronavirus?

#15 Post by Bob Juch » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:09 pm

It seems the trump has been getting the same bullshit as Spock:

Trump Predicts ‘Suicides By The Thousands’ If Americans Can’t Get Back To Work

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewst ... k-to-work/
I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.
- Douglas Adams (1952 - 2001)

Si fractum non sit, noli id reficere.

Teach a child to be polite and courteous in the home and, when he grows up, he'll never be able to drive in New Jersey.

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