WWTBAM Bored

I have been following the Coronavirus stuff pretty close and I am of the school that the disease has been much worse in China than we are being told.

Do you quarantine hundreds of millions of people for a mild flu that only kills a few old people?

Anyway, since I don't trust the Chinese numbers, the Italian outbreak is getting large enough to start telling us stuff.

One of my pet peeves has been when people divide the number of deaths into total cases to get the death rate.

No, you have to look at resolved cases-either dead or cured to get death rate.

Latest numbers from Italy show 322 cases with 10 deaths. Just doing my pet peeve-gives a minimum 3% death rate. Obviously, some of these 322 will die, so the mortality rate will be above 3%.

As time goes by and we start getting Italian resolved cases-cured or dead-we will finally be able to get a true sense of the mortality rate.

With a better health care system and less crowded conditions in Italy VS China, one would expect that the mortality rate is higher in China and we can get some sense of how much the Red Chinese have been lying.

I appreciate leaders and journalists who express compassion for the people who are suffering (the sick and also those whose life has been upended), and are upset at those who talk more about politics or the stock exchange.

Jarnon>>>"I appreciate leaders and journalists who express compassion for the people who are suffering (the sick and also those whose life has been upended), and are upset at those who talk more about politics or the stock exchange."<<<

Just think of the horrors of those quarantined in Wuhan and other places, with food running out and so forth. That is a story that is yet to be told (if ever).

While I can't speak to their credibility, I have seen videos (more than one) of Chinese TPTB barricading people inside their apartments who are suspected of having the disease.

The screaming and crying coming from the other side of the door argues for credibility and, there again, the horrors as food runs low are unspeakable.

Just saw that Iran has confirmed 95 cases with 15 dead. While it is likely that there are many more cases that is a terrifying number of dead to confirmed case count.

Spock wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:22 pm

Latest numbers from Italy show 322 cases with 10 deaths. Just doing my pet peeve-gives a minimum 3% death rate. Obviously, some of these 322 will die, so the mortality rate will be above 3%.

On the other hand, if a substantial number of people who contract the disease report only mild flu-like symptoms, then there probably are a substantial number of unreported cases. These people may either think they've just got an ordinary cold or be afraid of being quarantined or something similar.

SSS>>>"On the other hand, if a substantial number of people who contract the disease report only mild flu-like symptoms, then there probably are a substantial number of unreported cases. These people may either think they've just got an ordinary cold or be afraid of being quarantined or something similar.<<<

Largely agree, but the Italian numbers will still be more trustworthy than the Chinese numbers.

Plus, do you quarantine hundreds of millions of people and shoot your economy in the head for "substantial numbers of people....who have only mild flu-like symptoms?"

We have an employee in Italy that has been a confirmed case. Basically, that site has been shut down for now. WFH if you can but don't come to the office/plant. We have heard almost nothing from the Chinese contingent to the company.

My best buddy here is planning to go pick up a Russian friend who has been visiting in Rome and flying back Saturday. He is worried but still will go. I am trying to convince him that his wife should not go with him.

jarnon wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:47 pm

I appreciate leaders and journalists who express compassion for the people who are suffering (the sick and also those whose life has been upended), and am upset at those who talk more about politics or the stock exchange.

It turns out that’s most of the press and the Bored.

Spock wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 25, 2020 3:10 pm

SSS>>>"On the other hand, if a substantial number of people who contract the disease report only mild flu-like symptoms, then there probably are a substantial number of unreported cases. These people may either think they've just got an ordinary cold or be afraid of being quarantined or something similar.<<<

Largely agree, but the Italian numbers will still be more trustworthy than the Chinese numbers.

Plus, do you quarantine hundreds of millions of people and shoot your economy in the head for "substantial numbers of people....who have only mild flu-like symptoms?"

My Italian-Swiss niece says many in Lombardy are fleeing to the south. The streets of Milan are deserted.

Mortality rate equals the number of deaths divided by the number of people who are infected.

The news media gives us a decent idea about what the numerator is. I don't know whether to trust data from China.
The problem is that no one knows what the denominator is.

We have 20 deaths in the US but how many have the virus? Is it 500; is it 10,000; is it one million? We don't know how many people have the virus because we are only testing those who exhibit severe symptoms and/or meet other criteria (e.g., travel). If everyone could be tested, maybe we discover that it has the same mortality as the flu. Maybe not.

Ultimately, perhaps of more interest, will be the modeling that results about the rapidity of the community spread.

bazodee wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:46 pm

Mortality rate equals the number of deaths divided by the number of people who are infected.

The news media gives us a decent idea about what the numerator is. I don't know whether to trust data from China.
The problem is that no one knows what the denominator is.

We have 20 deaths in the US but how many have the virus? Is it 500; is it 10,000; is it one million? We don't know how many people have the virus because we are only testing those who exhibit severe symptoms and/or meet other criteria (e.g., travel). If everyone could be tested, maybe we discover that it has the same mortality as the flu. Maybe not.

Ultimately, perhaps of more interest, will be the modeling that results about the rapidity of the community spread.

In other counties, it's higher than the flu.

Bob Juch wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:19 pm

bazodee wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:46 pm

Mortality rate equals the number of deaths divided by the number of people who are infected.

The news media gives us a decent idea about what the numerator is. I don't know whether to trust data from China.
The problem is that no one knows what the denominator is.

We have 20 deaths in the US but how many have the virus? Is it 500; is it 10,000; is it one million? We don't know how many people have the virus because we are only testing those who exhibit severe symptoms and/or meet other criteria (e.g., travel). If everyone could be tested, maybe we discover that it has the same mortality as the flu. Maybe not.

Ultimately, perhaps of more interest, will be the modeling that results about the rapidity of the community spread.

In other counties, it's higher than the flu.

If you want to be a part of a meaningful conversation, quote reliable hard statistics that support your off the cuff remarks. And are you referring to mortality rate or community spread being higher than the flu?
And just as an aside, your posting of stupid memes aimed at trump do not help your credibility, if you have any.
Apparently many people who contract the virus experience it as a mild cold, and don't have any reason to report it. Many people might have gotten it, and recovered and didn't report it, as bazodee said. So the published mortality rates are probably much higher than reality because of that. Also, because of that, we can't calculate very accurate community spread statistics. I have not been able to find any in comparison to general flu numbers. If you have found any hard statistics on that, please share them.
I also find it rather ironic that with all your criticism of trump's response to covid-19, you matter-of-factly post that it's worse in 'other countries'.

Here's what the World Health Organization has to say. --Bob

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:56 pm

Bob Juch wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:19 pm

bazodee wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:46 pm

Mortality rate equals the number of deaths divided by the number of people who are infected.

The news media gives us a decent idea about what the numerator is. I don't know whether to trust data from China.
The problem is that no one knows what the denominator is.

We have 20 deaths in the US but how many have the virus? Is it 500; is it 10,000; is it one million? We don't know how many people have the virus because we are only testing those who exhibit severe symptoms and/or meet other criteria (e.g., travel). If everyone could be tested, maybe we discover that it has the same mortality as the flu. Maybe not.

Ultimately, perhaps of more interest, will be the modeling that results about the rapidity of the community spread.

In other counties, it's higher than the flu.

If you want to be a part of a meaningful conversation, quote reliable hard statistics that support your off the cuff remarks. And are you referring to mortality rate or community spread being higher than the flu?
And just as an aside, your posting of stupid memes aimed at trump do not help your credibility, if you have any.
Apparently many people who contract the virus experience it as a mild cold, and don't have any reason to report it. Many people might have gotten it, and recovered and didn't report it, as bazodee said. So the published mortality rates are probably much higher than reality because of that. Also, because of that, we can't calculate very accurate community spread statistics. I have not been able to find any in comparison to general flu numbers. If you have found any hard statistics on that, please share them.
I also find it rather ironic that with all your criticism of trump's response to covid-19, you matter-of-factly post that it's worse in 'other countries'.

What is the source of your talking points?

Bob Juch wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:27 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:56 pm

Bob Juch wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 09, 2020 1:19 pm

In other counties, it's higher than the flu.

If you want to be a part of a meaningful conversation, quote reliable hard statistics that support your off the cuff remarks. And are you referring to mortality rate or community spread being higher than the flu?
And just as an aside, your posting of stupid memes aimed at trump do not help your credibility, if you have any.
Apparently many people who contract the virus experience it as a mild cold, and don't have any reason to report it. Many people might have gotten it, and recovered and didn't report it, as bazodee said. So the published mortality rates are probably much higher than reality because of that. Also, because of that, we can't calculate very accurate community spread statistics. I have not been able to find any in comparison to general flu numbers. If you have found any hard statistics on that, please share them.
I also find it rather ironic that with all your criticism of trump's response to covid-19, you matter-of-factly post that it's worse in 'other countries'.

What is the source of your talking points?

I asked you to validate your vague assertion. First. If you won't then don't waste my time by diversion.

Here are some answers to my own questions:

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... vs-the-flu

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadl ... earth.html

My opinion is that compared to previous outbreaks of new viruses, from what we know so far, I think we are over-reacting. I will take the prescribed precautions of frequent washing and disinfecting, but I'm not going out and stocking up on toilet paper. I had planned on taking a trip to Italy this year. I will keep looking and see if the prices come down. I will have no problem going once the panic is over.

People who are germ paranoid should stay home and not inflict their paranoia on everyone else, though.

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:52 pm

Here are some answers to my own questions:

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... vs-the-flu

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadl ... earth.html

My opinion is that compared to previous outbreaks of new viruses, from what we know so far, I think we are over-reacting. I will take the prescribed precautions of frequent washing and disinfecting, but I'm not going out and stocking up on toilet paper. I had planned on taking a trip to Italy this year. I will keep looking and see if the prices come down. I will have no problem going once the panic is over.

People who are germ paranoid should stay home and not inflict their paranoia on everyone else, though.

When you say "we" are over-reacting, what specific actions are you talking about? Not trying to get political or pick fights. The official advice from people who know about such things, are not much different than what you propose you're going to do. I think maybe the colleges are over-reacting, but I think that's because they're worried about liability in these days of the lawnmower parent. All I have heard from any media outlet I pay attention to (Reuters, WaPo, NPR -- go ahead, turn me off now if you want) is to not panic, wash frequently, disinfect surfaces, and stay away from vulnerable folks and large gatherings for a while to try to flatten the curve. No one in any medium I've seen is telling people to stock up on toilet paper -- if people are doing that, it's because they're listening to the wrong people.

mrkelley23 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 2:14 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:52 pm

Here are some answers to my own questions:

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... vs-the-flu

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadl ... earth.html

My opinion is that compared to previous outbreaks of new viruses, from what we know so far, I think we are over-reacting. I will take the prescribed precautions of frequent washing and disinfecting, but I'm not going out and stocking up on toilet paper. I had planned on taking a trip to Italy this year. I will keep looking and see if the prices come down. I will have no problem going once the panic is over.

People who are germ paranoid should stay home and not inflict their paranoia on everyone else, though.

When you say "we" are over-reacting, what specific actions are you talking about? Not trying to get political or pick fights. The official advice from people who know about such things, are not much different than what you propose you're going to do. I think maybe the colleges are over-reacting, but I think that's because they're worried about liability in these days of the lawnmower parent. All I have heard from any media outlet I pay attention to (Reuters, WaPo, NPR -- go ahead, turn me off now if you want) is to not panic, wash frequently, disinfect surfaces, and stay away from vulnerable folks and large gatherings for a while to try to flatten the curve. No one in any medium I've seen is telling people to stock up on toilet paper -- if people are doing that, it's because they're listening to the wrong people.

Um, I think they have pretty much closed down Italy. They're banning audiences for some sports events (Santa Clara, CA, Possibly Cleveland. Maybe the Olympics). Telling people not to fly. 24/7 news with scary headlines. Not to mention the daily accusations that trump doesn't know what he's doing and he has blood on his hands (ask bobby).
I don't remember SARS or even ebola causing this much of a fuss.

Personally, the other night I cleared my throat and covered my mouth with my hand and some germaphobe made a big thing of it. He's one of the people who needs to stay home.

Have you not seen the memes about toilet paper?

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:52 pm

Here are some answers to my own questions:

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... vs-the-flu

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadl ... earth.html

My opinion is that compared to previous outbreaks of new viruses, from what we know so far, I think we are over-reacting. I will take the prescribed precautions of frequent washing and disinfecting, but I'm not going out and stocking up on toilet paper. I had planned on taking a trip to Italy this year. I will keep looking and see if the prices come down. I will have no problem going once the panic is over.

People who are germ paranoid should stay home and not inflict their paranoia on everyone else, though.

The virus can make a lot of people sick enough to require hospitalization. Many of those people will need some sort of oxygen or respiratory therapy to survive their illness. The primary public danger is that so many people will get sick so fast that we won't have enough hospital beds and won't be able to provide respiratory or oxygen therapy to those who need it.

So even though it's already too late to contain the virus, it's really important to slow its spread so that our medical resources can keep up. And that's what these seemingly drastic measures are designed to do. Once we are in position to have enough test kits available that testing is no longer bottlenecked (something a competent federal government would have been on top of, as other nations are demonstrating), it may become prudent to loosen up some of the more drastic social distancing measures.

But I continue to believe you have no clue just how fast an exponential growth curve can overwhelm national resources, or just how many people are likely to become, not just ill, but seriously ill from this virus. --Bob

TV news is making a big deal of this like they do with bad weather. Scaring viewers helps ratings.

But why toilet paper? Unlike masks or sanitizer, TP is useless against a virus.

Bob78164 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:21 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:52 pm

Here are some answers to my own questions:

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... vs-the-flu

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html

https://www.livescience.com/56598-deadl ... earth.html

My opinion is that compared to previous outbreaks of new viruses, from what we know so far, I think we are over-reacting. I will take the prescribed precautions of frequent washing and disinfecting, but I'm not going out and stocking up on toilet paper. I had planned on taking a trip to Italy this year. I will keep looking and see if the prices come down. I will have no problem going once the panic is over.

People who are germ paranoid should stay home and not inflict their paranoia on everyone else, though.

The virus can make a lot of people sick enough to require hospitalization. Many of those people will need some sort of oxygen or respiratory therapy to survive their illness. The primary public danger is that so many people will get sick so fast that we won't have enough hospital beds and won't be able to provide respiratory or oxygen therapy to those who need it.

So even though it's already too late to contain the virus, it's really important to slow its spread so that our medical resources can keep up. And that's what these seemingly drastic measures are designed to do. Once we are in position to have enough test kits available that testing is no longer bottlenecked (something a competent federal government would have been on top of, as other nations are demonstrating), it may become prudent to loosen up some of the more drastic social distancing measures.

But I continue to believe you have no clue just how fast an exponential growth curve can overwhelm national resources, or just how many people are likely to become, not just ill, but seriously ill from this virus. --Bob

You're one a dem spitballers. What do you or any of them ass clown pundits know about what COULD have been done? Political hindsight is always 20 20. What the hell are you and them doing about it other than complaining? It's really more sickening than the actual covid.

Oh yes, bobby. I know how it works. I know about the spanish flu and how it killed millions of people. But this so far shows no resemblance to that catastrophe. Maybe it will in the future, but NOBODY KNOWS at this point. Not even you. If it does progress exponentially and kills a significant population of the world, I will humbly admit you were right if I am alive. Until then, try and be real for a change.

Knock it off, bobby. Please.

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:38 pm

I know about the spanish flu and how it killed millions of people. But this so far shows no resemblance to that catastrophe.

Well, one big difference is that the state of medical science is considerably more advanced now than it was 100 years ago.

But Bob's right in that a lot more people will get severely ill enough to need hospitalization and we don't have the capacity to handle that. Other countries are taking this far more seriously than we are in the US, in large part because we have a president who's more concerned with poll numbers and the Dow Jones average than the actual medical crisis. And he's got followers like you who won't take it seriously until the cases and/or fatalities hit some magic number. Of course by then you will have a major problem on your hands. These othe countries aren't taking precautions to make Trump look bad; they're doing it to save the lives of their citizens.

Is some of this overblown? Very probably; but it's like any precautionary measures, you don't know what's actually necessary until you need it, and if it's not there, you're too late.

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:38 pm

What do you or any of them ass clown pundits know about what COULD have been done?

Well, one thing that even ass clown pundits know is that cutting the budget of the agency responsible for battling epidemic diseases like this is a bad idea, considering the number of outbreaks of various diseases we've had in this country over the last few years. But like most things that Trump cut that stand in the way of corporate profits ("unnecessary" regulations), you sometimes find out they really were necessary after all.

silverscreenselect wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:40 pm

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:38 pm

What do you or any of them ass clown pundits know about what COULD have been done?

Well, one thing that even ass clown pundits know is that cutting the budget of the agency responsible for battling epidemic diseases like this is a bad idea, considering the number of outbreaks of various diseases we've had in this country over the last few years. But like most things that Trump cut that stand in the way of corporate profits ("unnecessary" regulations), you sometimes find out they really were necessary after all.

You want to play that game?
How many people died at the hands of "ISIL"? The JV team? Does obama have that blood on his hands? Where was your stinking finger pointing then?
When will you people stop? You are not the solution to anything. You are the problem.

And by the way, as far as I can tell, the CDCs budget has not been cut. It has actually increased under trump. The congress controls all federal money, and though trump PROPOSED cuts, they have never been enacted. Hypocrisy. But it's to be expected.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/democ ... us-claims/

flockofseagulls104 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:28 pm

You are not the solution to anything. You are the problem.

No, Trump is the problem and you apologize and excuse him every single time and think he should be given a free pass because it's Democrats and the liberal media who point out his faults. The CDC's funding to fight pandemic diseases was cut under Trump as was the health security arm of the National Security Council.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-c ... rus-2020-2