earendel wrote: ↑
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:45 am
A Washington Post poll taken last summer found that, given a choice between Donald Trump and a "socialist" Democratic candidate, 50% of independent voters went for Trump; overall, Trump would win over such a candidate 49% to 43%.
Bernie Sanders isn't my first choice, …. but there is a big disconnect between what Americans think about "socialists" and what they think about Bernie Sanders. And Trump wouldn't be running against a "socialist"; he'd be running against Bernie Sanders, and the general public likes Bernie Sanders a lot more than they like Trump.
This recent Reuters poll (Feb7-10) shows the following favorable unfavorable, overall and among independents
Trump 46-54 (of that 54, 43 were very unfavorable) Independents: 33-67 (of that 67, 42 were very unfavorable)
Biden 50-49, Independents: 57-43
Warren 47-53, Independents: 40-59
Sanders 53-46 Independents: 62-38
Further, Sanders is almost as well known as Trump. 87% said they were very familiar or somewhat familiar with him, including 88% of independents. So, people, including independents, know and like Bernie. Also, Trump and his supporters' tendency to run off at the mouth about everyone they oppose has reduced their credibility tremendously among the non-Kool Aid drinkers.
The final result was that Sanders would beat Trump 45-41, including 46-28 among independents. He did as well or better than the other Democrats polled in a one-on-one against Trump.
https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/m ... 202020.pdf
It won't be easy to beat Trump considering the crap that's going to be flying out for the next six months. But Sanders has something Obama had, Hillary didn't, and none of the other Democrats have demonstrated so far, and that's an organizing ground game. That's how he won Nevada going away. I do think Bernie will have to learn to deflect questions like the Castro question, and I think his choice of a Vice President will be very important (not to put this too delicately, but it's highly likely Bernie would be, at best, a one term president). But it's definitely doable, and none of the other Democrats have shown much strength this year. Joe Biden still has never won a single primary or caucus. People like Elizabeth Warren's toughness and favor her policies over Bernie's, but she still can't get any traction and keeps finishing fourth or fifth.