Incompetence may have spread the virus

[Bob78164]

And in news that I'm absolutely sure is unrelated, a Republican fundraiser with no prior experience has suddenly gone into business selling medical equipment such as PPE, test kits, respirator masks, and other "hard to find medical supplies to beat the outbreak."

How is he managing to fulfill orders in this environment? "I have relationships with a lot of people." --Bob

[silverscreenselect]

Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic.

Levine estimates that 180-195 people a day are dying at home of coronavirus that aren't being counted in the official totals, based on comparisons of home-based deaths now versus pre-crisis. I doubt this phenomenon is limited to New York City, as an Italian study I cited mentioned similar officially unaccounted for death spikes there. Also disturbing is this April 3 report from the University of Texas:

COVID-19 is largely spreading undetected, because of the high proportion of asymptomatic and mild infections and limited laboratory testing capacity. Public health officials are making grave decisions amidst overwhelming uncertainty, and are often waiting for compelling evidence of local transmission prior to issuing social distancing orders. To inform decision-makers, we have estimated the likelihood that each county in the US already has extensive community transmission based on the number of confirmed cases to date. We also assume that contact rates in the US have been reduced 50% We assume that every county has had at least one undetected case and run stochastic simulations to estimate the true underlying state of the outbreak depending on the number of confirmed cases to date.

For counties that have not yet reported a confirmed case, the chance that there is an undetected outbreak underway is 9%. A single detected case of COVID-19 increases that risk to 51%. Overall, 72% of US counties with 94% of the national population have over a 50% chance of ongoing COVID-19 transmission. In Texas specifically, 56% of the counties accounting for 97% of the population have over a 50% chance of ongoing COVID-19 transmission.

The part that I italicized is hopeful news, since I think that social distancing efforts have been more than 50% successful, but unfortunately, when people do get out, as when the Georgia governor re-opened the beaches or what may happen in church services this weekend, the potential spread is magnified.

https://cid.utexas.edu/sites/default/fi ... 1585958755

[Bob Juch]

Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic.

Levine estimates that 180-195 people a day are dying at home of coronavirus that aren't being counted in the official totals, based on comparisons of home-based deaths now versus pre-crisis. I doubt this phenomenon is limited to New York City, as an Italian study I cited mentioned similar officially unaccounted for death spikes there. Also disturbing is this April 3 report from the University of Texas:

COVID-19 is largely spreading undetected, because of the high proportion of asymptomatic and mild infections and limited laboratory testing capacity. Public health officials are making grave decisions amidst overwhelming uncertainty, and are often waiting for compelling evidence of local transmission prior to issuing social distancing orders. To inform decision-makers, we have estimated the likelihood that each county in the US already has extensive community transmission based on the number of confirmed cases to date. We also assume that contact rates in the US have been reduced 50% We assume that every county has had at least one undetected case and run stochastic simulations to estimate the true underlying state of the outbreak depending on the number of confirmed cases to date.

For counties that have not yet reported a confirmed case, the chance that there is an undetected outbreak underway is 9%. A single detected case of COVID-19 increases that risk to 51%. Overall, 72% of US counties with 94% of the national population have over a 50% chance of ongoing COVID-19 transmission. In Texas specifically, 56% of the counties accounting for 97% of the population have over a 50% chance of ongoing COVID-19 transmission.

The part that I italicized is hopeful news, since I think that social distancing efforts have been more than 50% successful, but unfortunately, when people do get out, as when the Georgia governor re-opened the beaches or what may happen in church services this weekend, the potential spread is magnified.

https://cid.utexas.edu/sites/default/fi ... 1585958755

New York City isn't doing autopsies on most deaths as they are now overloaded. There are probably many deaths that aren't counted as being from COVID-19.

[Bob Juch]

I have a feeling that Trump is now saying things are worse than he really expects so that when the numbers come in lower, he will demand praise.

[Beebs52]

I have a feeling that Trump is now saying things are worse than he really expects so that when the numbers come in lower, he will demand praise.

Of course you do.

[Bob Juch]

I have a feeling that Trump is now saying things are worse than he really expects so that when the numbers come in lower, he will demand praise.

Of course you do.

Wait and see.

[silverscreenselect]

I have a feeling that Trump is now saying things are worse than he really expects so that when the numbers come in lower, he will demand praise.

Of course you do.

Wait and see.

Every time that Trump speaks, he reminds me of Winston Smith trying to rewrite the history books in 1984. Unfortunately for Trump, technology has improved since Orwell's time so there's ample record that he can't erase, much as he would like to.

[silverscreenselect]

Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic.

Levine estimates that 180-195 people a day are dying at home of coronavirus that aren't being counted in the official totals, based on comparisons of home-based deaths now versus pre-crisis. I doubt this phenomenon is limited to New York City, as an Italian study I cited mentioned similar officially unaccounted for death spikes there. Also disturbing is this April 3 report from the University of Texas:

This article shows a similar pattern in Madrid, Spain. In comparing deaths between 2019 and 2020, they found that over 3,000 more people died this year, even when deaths officially attributed to the coronavirus were taken into account.

The Health Ministry has asked regional authorities to report confirmed Covid-19 deaths, which means that only people who were tested and whose tests came back positive for the disease are counted in the official figures. This automatically excludes people who died in senior residences or in their own homes and who were never tested. In these cases, the death certificate does not show coronavirus as the cause of death, but simply cardiorespiratory arrest or respiratory failure.

A few regional governments have released information about suspicious deaths, particularly inside senior homes, which have become epicenters of coronavirus outbreaks. But these are not included in the official figures, which require confirmation of the presence of the coronavirus through PCR (polymerase chain reaction) lab tests.

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news ... gures.html

We will probably have to do detailed statistical analysis in the months and years to come to get a more accurate figure of the eventual death toll, and even estimating the total number of cases may well be impossible. The only "good" thing out of high case totals is that if this virus works like others, those who recover will develop an immunity against reinfection, which will slow the spread of any subsequent flareups.

[silverscreenselect]

Interesting article here debunking a lot of right-wing claims about the coronavirus, one of the most prevalent of which is that authorities are overcounting coronavirus deaths to make the crisis appear worse than it is. They rely on the fact that many of the people who die from the coronavirus have underlying co-morbidities as well, which makes them more susceptible. Their claim is that some or most of these deaths are due to the underlying conditions. However, many of those patients have underlying conditions like hypertension, diabetes, and asthma, which, when treated, are rarely fatal and certainly not fatal in such high concentrations as we're seeing now. Indeed, all the statistical studies show that coronavirus deaths are being undercounted.

Where this comes into play is if they succeed in getting Trump or various Republican governors to "reopen the economy with a bang." That bang could well be a bullet to the head 3-4 weeks later when there's another wave of cases. Unfortunately, far too many people who distrust the medical and scientific community already (or simply don't care) will overindulge and party like crazy as soon as places reopen for business.

https://arcdigital.media/debunking-coro ... 90fc660a12

[wbtravis007]

I have a feeling that Trump is now saying things are worse than he really expects so that when the numbers come in lower, he will demand praise.

Of course you do.

Wait and see.

Yeah. I first noticed him starting to tack that direction during the press conference on the Sunday before last (3/29).

[Bob Juch]

Trump attacks WHO amid criticism of his coronavirus response

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... s-response

President Trump has zeroed in on the World Health Organization (WHO) as a new target for blame as the coronavirus pandemic grips the United States.

The attacks come as Trump faces criticism for his own response to the crisis and fit a pattern in which the president has lashed out at other politicians and organizations to redirect blame.

Trump has skewered the WHO for disagreeing with his travel restrictions on China and suggested the organization was sluggish in warning the global community about the novel coronavirus, threatening to withhold U.S. funding for the body.

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[Beebs52]

Nicknames are fun. Specifically for Richard. Apply as needed.

[silverscreenselect]

13,000 dead now in the USA. Many people who are dying, both here and around the world, were on their last legs anyway, and I don't want to sound callous about that... Not only that, they were damaged.

He's lost his show but he hasn't lost his touch.

[Bob78164]

Here's one Republican governor (Mike DeWine of Ohio) who got it right early. I was in the process of deciding whether I was going to go through with my plans to attend the Nationals in Columbus -- discussing the issue with my bridge partner -- when Gov. DeWine made the decision for me. Which decision, incidentally, saved ACBL an awful lot of money by allowing it to exercise its force majeure clause to get out of the event without paying a financial penalty to the host hotels.

Here's another Republican governor, Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, who still hasn't gotten it right. In the case of Brian Kemp of Georgia, it was (supposedly) because he had no idea that the disease could be spread by asymptomatic carriers until earlier this week. In the case of Ron deSantis of Florida, it was supposedly because he had no idea the disease could kill people younger than 25 (it can and has). I wonder why Governor Ricketts still hasn't imposed a statewide shelter-in-place order. --Bob

[silverscreenselect]

by allowing it to exercise its force majeure clause to get out of the event without paying a financial penalty to the host hotels.

I have dealt with more force majeure clauses in the last three weeks than in my entire 30 years of working with contracts.

[silverscreenselect]

In response to a Wall Street Journal editorial calling Trump's nightly coronavirus briefings a waste of time:

The Wall Street Journal always “forgets” to mention that the ratings for the White House Press Briefings are “through the roof” (Monday Night Football, Bachelor Finale, according to @nytimes) & is only way for me to escape the Fake News & get my views across. WSJ is Fake News!

In response to that tweet:

This is a ridiculous tweet. He could get his views across without bragging, endlessly repeating himself, and getting into petty squabbles with the junior varsity players in the WH press corps. And he could stop talking much sooner to give Pence, Fauci, Birx and Giroir more time.

What's really ironic is that Britt Hume has been one of Trump's biggest water carriers at Fox News, questioning whether reported coronavirus death totals are over-inflated.

[Appa23]

Here's one Republican governor (Mike DeWine of Ohio) who got it right early. I was in the process of deciding whether I was going to go through with my plans to attend the Nationals in Columbus -- discussing the issue with my bridge partner -- when Gov. DeWine made the decision for me. Which decision, incidentally, saved ACBL an awful lot of money by allowing it to exercise its force majeure clause to get out of the event without paying a financial penalty to the host hotels.

Here's another Republican governor, Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, who still hasn't gotten it right. In the case of Brian Kemp of Georgia, it was (supposedly) because he had no idea that the disease could be spread by asymptomatic carriers until earlier this week. In the case of Ron deSantis of Florida, it was supposedly because he had no idea the disease could kill people younger than 25 (it can and has). I wonder why Governor Ricketts still hasn't imposed a statewide shelter-in-place order. --Bob

Wonder no more. Nebraska has not issued a mandatory shelter-in-place order because the voluntary one has been successful, it appears. Around here, we tend to do the right thing, which is why schools closed a month ago, even while we had one of the lowest reporting rates per capita. Moreover, those individuals who are not staying at home, per the bogus numbers shown in the attached Times article, likely still would be traveling great distances with an order, as they are essential workers who are unable to telework. (Douglas County received an A or B+ rating for the percentage of decrease in traveling outside the home in another survey of cell traffic, IIRC.)

In short, we are good right now. Gov Ricketts is being advised by the staff of one of the (if not the) leading epidemiology hospital(s) in the nation. As our peak approaches, I do expect an order to come. Fortunately, all indications are that we have sufficient beds and are better off than other states on ventilators. Time will tell. However, one size does not fit all with everything Covid.

[silverscreenselect]

Perhaps the scariest thing Trump has said, in answer to a question about what metrics he will use to determine when to "open up" the country:

The metrics right here [points to his head]. That's my metrics.That's all I can do. I can listen to 35 people. At the end, I've got to make a decision. It's the biggest decision I've ever had to make.

[Beebs52]

Perhaps the scariest thing Trump has said, in answer to a question about what metrics he will use to determine when to "open up" the country:

The metrics right here [points to his head]. That's my metrics.That's all I can do. I can listen to 35 people. At the end, I've got to make a decision. It's the biggest decision I've ever had to make.

Um, yeah, that's sorta what any prez has to do.

[Bob78164]

Here's one Republican governor (Mike DeWine of Ohio) who got it right early. I was in the process of deciding whether I was going to go through with my plans to attend the Nationals in Columbus -- discussing the issue with my bridge partner -- when Gov. DeWine made the decision for me. Which decision, incidentally, saved ACBL an awful lot of money by allowing it to exercise its force majeure clause to get out of the event without paying a financial penalty to the host hotels.

Here's another Republican governor, Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, who still hasn't gotten it right. In the case of Brian Kemp of Georgia, it was (supposedly) because he had no idea that the disease could be spread by asymptomatic carriers until earlier this week. In the case of Ron deSantis of Florida, it was supposedly because he had no idea the disease could kill people younger than 25 (it can and has). I wonder why Governor Ricketts still hasn't imposed a statewide shelter-in-place order. --Bob

Wonder no more. Nebraska has not issued a mandatory shelter-in-place order because the voluntary one has been successful, it appears. Around here, we tend to do the right thing, which is why schools closed a month ago, even while we had one of the lowest reporting rates per capita. Moreover, those individuals who are not staying at home, per the bogus numbers shown in the attached Times article, likely still would be traveling great distances with an order, as they are essential workers who are unable to telework. (Douglas County received an A or B+ rating for the percentage of decrease in traveling outside the home in another survey of cell traffic, IIRC.)

In short, we are good right now. Gov Ricketts is being advised by the staff of one of the (if not the) leading epidemiology hospital(s) in the nation. As our peak approaches, I do expect an order to come. Fortunately, all indications are that we have sufficient beds and are better off than other states on ventilators. Time will tell. However, one size does not fit all with everything Covid.

That's the problem. You won't know for two or three weeks whether you're good right now. And once you do know, it will be too late to change course.

Exponentials are frightening things to those who understand them. Particularly when combined with a latency period. --Bob

[Beebs52]

Here's one Republican governor (Mike DeWine of Ohio) who got it right early. I was in the process of deciding whether I was going to go through with my plans to attend the Nationals in Columbus -- discussing the issue with my bridge partner -- when Gov. DeWine made the decision for me. Which decision, incidentally, saved ACBL an awful lot of money by allowing it to exercise its force majeure clause to get out of the event without paying a financial penalty to the host hotels.

Here's another Republican governor, Pete Ricketts of Nebraska, who still hasn't gotten it right. In the case of Brian Kemp of Georgia, it was (supposedly) because he had no idea that the disease could be spread by asymptomatic carriers until earlier this week. In the case of Ron deSantis of Florida, it was supposedly because he had no idea the disease could kill people younger than 25 (it can and has). I wonder why Governor Ricketts still hasn't imposed a statewide shelter-in-place order. --Bob

Wonder no more. Nebraska has not issued a mandatory shelter-in-place order because the voluntary one has been successful, it appears. Around here, we tend to do the right thing, which is why schools closed a month ago, even while we had one of the lowest reporting rates per capita. Moreover, those individuals who are not staying at home, per the bogus numbers shown in the attached Times article, likely still would be traveling great distances with an order, as they are essential workers who are unable to telework. (Douglas County received an A or B+ rating for the percentage of decrease in traveling outside the home in another survey of cell traffic, IIRC.)

In short, we are good right now. Gov Ricketts is being advised by the staff of one of the (if not the) leading epidemiology hospital(s) in the nation. As our peak approaches, I do expect an order to come. Fortunately, all indications are that we have sufficient beds and are better off than other states on ventilators. Time will tell. However, one size does not fit all with everything Covid.

That's the problem. You won't know for two or three weeks whether you're good right now. And once you do know, it will be too late to change course.

Exponentials are frightening things to those who understand them. Particularly when combined with a latency period. --Bob

Do the experts have you on speed dial?

[silverscreenselect]

Perhaps the scariest thing Trump has said, in answer to a question about what metrics he will use to determine when to "open up" the country:

The metrics right here [points to his head]. That's my metrics.That's all I can do. I can listen to 35 people. At the end, I've got to make a decision. It's the biggest decision I've ever had to make.

Um, yeah, that's sorta what any prez has to do.

Here are Trump's metrics:

We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.

And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.

It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.

[Beebs52]

Perhaps the scariest thing Trump has said, in answer to a question about what metrics he will use to determine when to "open up" the country:

Um, yeah, that's sorta what any prez has to do.

Here are Trump's metrics:

We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.

And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.

It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.

Speed dial line 2

[Bob78164]

Um, yeah, that's sorta what any prez has to do.

Here are Trump's metrics:

We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.

And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.

It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.

Speed dial line 2

What scares the shit out of me is the distinct possibility that in November a minority of voters in this country will again be able to force their preference on the rest of us that Donny gets to be the person heading the federal response to the second half of the pandemic. Because I'm really not at all sure it's possible to have done worse at it than Donny has. --Bob

[Bob Juch]

Arizona news: With some hospital beds empty, healthcare workers go on furlough

https://www.kold.com/2020/04/10/with-so ... -furlough/

TUCSON, Ariz. (KOLD News 13) - In the midst of an international pandemic which is still weeks away from its predicted peak, some hospitals on Tucson are furloughing some of its staff.

Which ones and how many isn’t clear yet, but it’s enough to catch the attention of some government officials who worry it could have an effect on the COVID-19 response when cases begin to spike.

According to numbers released by the Institute of Health Metrics, as of April 10, 2020, Arizona had 315 intensive care beds available. But right now, 153 of them are empty.

There are 384 available emergency room beds but 255 of them are empty.

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